The US dollar was weaker in January, with the US Dollar Index, a value of the currency against a basket of major currencies, dropping 3.23 per cent on the month.
It was a sharp reversal for the greenback, following three consecutive months of higher closings, in which the index moved from 95.44 to 102.29. While the theme in the latter part of last year was dominated by Federal Reserve interest rate policy, culminating in the eventual rate hike in December, markets have now turned their attention squarely to Washington and upcoming US policy.
President Donald Trump has been outspoken on the value of the dollar, calling out its strength in comments to The Wall Street Journal in which he said the dollar was already "too strong".
A large part of Mr Trump’s plans hinge on bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US and going head-on with exporters such as China and trading partners such as Mexico to ramp up US exports and reduce the overall US trade deficit. Top Trump advisers even took aim at Europe, accusing Germany of unfair trade advantages via a “grossly undervalued euro”.
Mr Trump’s mercantilist mentality opens the door to potential trade wars with many of its current trading partners and this will keep the dollar under pressure going forward.
In the immediate short term, initial support in the US Dollar Index falls at 99.19 followed by a longer-term support level at 95.91 levels. Upsides would be capped at 103.81 going forward.
Unlike 2016, the US data docket will not be as influential as Mr Trump’s in the initial parts of 2017 – the most recent FOMC rate decision from last week completely went under the radar. Adopting a rather dovish tone as a result of a softening of US data headlined by a weaker US GDP and supported by weaker fourth-quarter consumer spending, the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach through the year – and its focus will hinge more on inflation expectations.
In its most recent meeting, the Fed said that “market-based inflation gauges remain low”, while in December it maintained that “measures have moved up considerably”. Clearly inflation figures are going to be in focus for the Fed. While many expect a minimum of three rate hikes this year, it seems realistic to assume a maximum of two in 2017, with the Fed slashing probabilities of a rate hike through each month of the year.
Even the most recent payrolls did little to spark a dollar rally – January payrolls showed that 227,000 new jobs were added, well above the expected 175,000. While the overall unemployment rate weakened to 4.8 per cent, this was on the back of a stronger participation rate, which increased to 62.9 per cent on the month. It was the average weekly earnings in January that weighed on sentiment – data showed that earnings dropped to 0.1 per cent Act v 0.3 per cent Exp / 0.4 per cent Prev. Clearly an indicator of price pressure, markets sold the dollar on a further expected dovish Fed.
The euro broke through several key resistance levels against the greenback in its run to 1.08 levels on the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange in January. While it may be too early to suggest a reversal in the overall trend, we adopt a neutral view in EURUSD in the month ahead. We will watch for resistance at 1.0860 with support coming in at 1.0515 levels.
The British pound also remains in range, and we adopt a neutral bias in GBPUSD in the month ahead. After testing monthly highs at 1.27 against the greenback on DGCX, the pound has retraced below 1.25 levels at the time of writing. We see near-term support at 1.23 on DGCX with upsides capped at 1.27.
Perhaps the safest trade at the moment remains in DGCX’s West Texas Intermediary contract. With resistance coming in at US$54.20 levels, look to build long positions following a correction to $50.50-$51.00.
Gaurav Kashyap is an FX trader based in Dubai.
business@thenational.ae
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”