The slowdown of China, and expectation of higher interest rates in the US, is causing increased volatility in global financial markets. We should expect the shake, rattle and roll to continue in the coming months, with markets moving from a position of complacency earlier this year to a period of overcorrecting.
Amid the turmoil, we highlight two of our key calls:
First, we don’t believe that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will take interest rates as high as markets expect.
Second, although concerns about China are justified to some extent, we expect a pickup in activity in the fourth quarter as policy stimulus begins to take effect, avoiding a hard landing.
China’s deceleration is necessary. If China is to become a high-income country, it needs an economic model that is less dependent on investment, exports, manufacturing and construction, and more dependent on services and consumption.
Also, China responded to the 2008-09 global financial crisis with significant policy stimulus, which has led to high leverage among businesses, banks and local governments (but not households), and a slowdown is now a must.
China has room for moderate policy stimulus to prevent a hard landing of the economy. The People’s Bank of China has already reduced policy rates five times and the reserve requirement ratio by 200 basis points since November.
We expect another 25 basis point interest rate cut and 100 basis points of ratio cuts this year. Policy works with a lag, and policy easing is likely to start to lift economic performance in the fourth quarter of this year and into next year. We expect growth to reach 6.9 per cent in the fourth quarter.
It is also important to put China’s currency devaluation in August in context. The move was seen by some as an attempt to improve the economy by boosting exports.
We disagree – China’s authorities want to introduce more currency flexibility to have the yuan included in the IMF’s special drawing rights.
We are also not convinced by the widespread view that the yuan is overvalued. The IMF usually uses internal and external balance models to determine a currency’s fair value. A currency is considered to be at fair value when the economy enjoys both internal (full employment) and external (current account at equilibrium) balance. China still has a significant current account surplus, and its labour market is robust.
As for US rate hikes – the other key concern for financial markets – the Fed has been preparing markets all year for its first interest rate rise since 2006.
Interest rates close to 0 per cent and three rounds of quantitative easing were the Fed’s measures to deal with an extraordinary situation – the slow healing after the global financial crisis. Now, with unemployment falling to 5.1 per cent in August from a peak of 10 per cent in October 2009, the Fed believes it should move to normalise interest rates.
But there are risks. First, although unemployment has fallen, the participation rate in the US labour market is at the lowest level since 1977. Second, inflation is below the Fed’s inflation target of 2 per cent. Third, the inflation pressure appears to be low, with wages under control.
The Fed seems eager to move, but also wants to make it clear that the hiking cycle will be very gradual. The risk with this approach, as Japan discovered in 2000 when it hiked prematurely, is that the Fed might find it hard to convince markets of its intended gradual pace.
Actions speak louder than words, and markets will note that the Fed decided to hike interest rates when inflation was below target and there were no apparent inflationary pressures.
We expect the Fed to hike in December this year, but for the reasons discussed above, we think interest rates will peak at just 1 per cent by June next year and stay there for a prolonged period.
Our forecasts are lower than market consensus and Fed projections.
Markets were not pricing for risk earlier this year, but are now in a period of elevated volatility.
The two global stories spooking markets – China’s economic slowdown and the first Fed hike – will probably continue to dominate in the coming months, but it is important not to lose sight of fundamentals.
Despite the prevailing negative sentiment, we expect China to weather the storm, with growth picking up by the end of this year. And we expect the Fed to take rates to a peak of just 1 per cent over two years, lower than the market anticipates. This suggests that beyond the initial period when markets re-price risk, interesting opportunities will arise for investors.
Marios Maratheftis is the chief economist at Standard Chartered.
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Jordan cabinet changes
In
- Raed Mozafar Abu Al Saoud, Minister of Water and Irrigation
- Dr Bassam Samir Al Talhouni, Minister of Justice
- Majd Mohamed Shoueikeh, State Minister of Development of Foundation Performance
- Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education and Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research
- Falah Abdalla Al Ammoush, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Basma Moussa Ishakat, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Ghazi Monawar Al Zein, Minister of Health
- Ibrahim Sobhi Alshahahede, Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Environment
- Dr Mohamed Suleiman Aburamman, Minister of Culture and Minister of Youth
Out
- Dr Adel Issa Al Tawissi, Minister of High Education and Scientific Research
- Hala Noaman “Basiso Lattouf”, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Mahmud Yassin Al Sheyab, Minister of Health
- Yahya Moussa Kasbi, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Nayef Hamidi Al Fayez, Minister of Environment
- Majd Mohamed Shoueika, Minister of Public Sector Development
- Khalid Moussa Al Huneifat, Minister of Agriculture
- Dr Awad Abu Jarad Al Mushakiba, Minister of Justice
- Mounir Moussa Ouwais, Minister of Water and Agriculture
- Dr Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education
- Mokarram Mustafa Al Kaysi, Minister of Youth
- Basma Mohamed Al Nousour, Minister of Culture
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The Bio
Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”
Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”
Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”
Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The major Hashd factions linked to Iran:
Badr Organisation: Seen as the most militarily capable faction in the Hashd. Iraqi Shiite exiles opposed to Saddam Hussein set up the group in Tehran in the early 1980s as the Badr Corps under the supervision of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The militia exalts Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but intermittently cooperated with the US military.
Saraya Al Salam (Peace Brigade): Comprised of former members of the officially defunct Mahdi Army, a militia that was commanded by Iraqi cleric Moqtada Al Sadr and fought US and Iraqi government and other forces between 2004 and 2008. As part of a political overhaul aimed as casting Mr Al Sadr as a more nationalist and less sectarian figure, the cleric formed Saraya Al Salam in 2014. The group’s relations with Iran has been volatile.
Kataeb Hezbollah: The group, which is fighting on behalf of the Bashar Al Assad government in Syria, traces its origins to attacks on US forces in Iraq in 2004 and adopts a tough stance against Washington, calling the United States “the enemy of humanity”.
Asaeb Ahl Al Haq: An offshoot of the Mahdi Army active in Syria. Asaeb Ahl Al Haq’s leader Qais al Khazali was a student of Mr Al Moqtada’s late father Mohammed Sadeq Al Sadr, a prominent Shiite cleric who was killed during Saddam Hussein’s rule.
Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba: Formed in 2013 to fight alongside Mr Al Assad’s loyalists in Syria before joining the Hashd. The group is seen as among the most ideological and sectarian-driven Hashd militias in Syria and is the major recruiter of foreign fighters to Syria.
Saraya Al Khorasani: The ICRG formed Saraya Al Khorasani in the mid-1990s and the group is seen as the most ideologically attached to Iran among Tehran’s satellites in Iraq.
(Source: The Wilson Centre, the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation)
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE central contracts
Full time contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ahmed Raza, Mohammed Usman, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Sultan Ahmed, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmed, Zawar Farid
Part time contracts
Aryan Lakra, Ansh Tandon, Karthik Meiyappan, Rahul Bhatia, Alishan Sharafu, CP Rizwaan, Basil Hameed, Matiullah, Fahad Nawaz, Sanchit Sharma
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Soldier F
“I was in complete disgust at the fact that only one person was to be charged for Bloody Sunday.
“Somebody later said to me, 'you just watch - they'll drop the charge against him'. And sure enough, the charges against Soldier F would go on to be dropped.
“It's pretty hard to think that 50 years on, the State is still covering up for what happened on Bloody Sunday.”
Jimmy Duddy, nephew of John Johnson
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More from Neighbourhood Watch:
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Stamp%20duty%20timeline
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDecember%202014%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%20Former%20UK%20chancellor%20of%20the%20Exchequer%20George%20Osborne%20reforms%20stamp%20duty%20land%20tax%20(SDLT)%2C%20replacing%20the%20slab%20system%20with%20a%20blended%20rate%20scheme%2C%20with%20the%20top%20rate%20increasing%20to%2012%20per%20cent%20from%2010%20per%20cent%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EUp%20to%20%C2%A3125%2C000%20%E2%80%93%200%25%3B%20%C2%A3125%2C000%20to%20%C2%A3250%2C000%20%E2%80%93%202%25%3B%20%C2%A3250%2C000%20to%20%C2%A3925%2C000%20%E2%80%93%205%25%3B%20%C2%A3925%2C000%20to%20%C2%A31.5m%3A%2010%25%3B%20More%20than%20%C2%A31.5m%20%E2%80%93%2012%25%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EApril%202016%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20New%203%25%20surcharge%20applied%20to%20any%20buy-to-let%20properties%20or%20additional%20homes%20purchased.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJuly%202020%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chancellor%20Rishi%20Sunak%20unveils%20SDLT%20holiday%2C%20with%20no%20tax%20to%20pay%20on%20the%20first%20%C2%A3500%2C000%2C%20with%20buyers%20saving%20up%20to%20%C2%A315%2C000.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMarch%202021%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mr%20Sunak%20extends%20the%20SDLT%20holiday%20at%20his%20March%203%20budget%20until%20the%20end%20of%20June.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EApril%202021%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%25%20SDLT%20surcharge%20added%20to%20property%20transactions%20made%20by%20overseas%20buyers.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJune%202021%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SDLT%20holiday%20on%20transactions%20up%20to%20%C2%A3500%2C000%20expires%20on%20June%2030.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJuly%202021%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tax%20break%20on%20transactions%20between%20%C2%A3125%2C000%20to%20%C2%A3250%2C000%20starts%20on%20July%201%20and%20runs%20until%20September%2030.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
When is VAR used?
• Goals
• Penalty decisions
• Direct red-card incidents
• Mistaken identity
Sanju
Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani
Director: Rajkumar Hirani
Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani
Rating: 3.5 stars
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Homie%20Portal%20LLC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20End%20of%202021%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdulla%20Al%20Kamda%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2014%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELaunch%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self-funded%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEjari%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERiyadh%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYazeed%20Al%20Shamsi%2C%20Fahad%20Albedah%2C%20Mohammed%20Alkhelewy%20and%20Khalid%20Almunif%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPropTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%241%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESanabil%20500%20Mena%2C%20Hambro%20Perks'%20Oryx%20Fund%20and%20angel%20investors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
if you go
The flights
Emirates flies to Delhi with fares starting from around Dh760 return, while Etihad fares cost about Dh783 return. From Delhi, there are connecting flights to Lucknow.
Where to stay
It is advisable to stay in Lucknow and make a day trip to Kannauj. A stay at the Lebua Lucknow hotel, a traditional Lucknowi mansion, is recommended. Prices start from Dh300 per night (excluding taxes).
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Belong%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Michael%20Askew%20and%20Matthew%20Gaziano%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Technology%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%243.5%20million%20from%20crowd%20funding%20and%20angel%20investors%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
UAE SQUAD
Omar Abdulrahman (Al Hilal), Ali Khaseif, Ali Mabkhout, Salem Rashed, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Zayed Al Ameri, Mohammed Al Attas (Al Jazira), Khalid Essa, Ahmed Barman, Ryan Yaslam, Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Habib Fardan, Tariq Ahmed, Mohammed Al Akbari (Al Nasr), Ali Saleh, Ali Salmin (Al Wasl), Adel Al Hosani, Ali Hassan Saleh, Majed Suroor (Sharjah), Ahmed Khalil, Walid Abbas, Majed Hassan, Ismail Al Hammadi (Shabab Al Ahli), Hassan Al Muharrami, Fahad Al Dhahani (Bani Yas), Mohammed Al Shaker (Ajman)
MATCH INFO
Uefa Nations League
League A, Group 4
Spain v England, 10.45pm (UAE)
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
