What a difference a month makes. Last month, we were concerned about irrational pessimism in the markets and since then, we have seen a massive rally.
Such volatility is likely to be an ongoing feature this year. What fascinates us is that the discourse seems to be more sanguine, yet the correlations have not changed: equities have rallied in line with crude, perpetuating the idea that low oil prices are bad for world growth and hence for stocks.
Yet energy earnings have dropped from 11.5 per cent of total S&P earnings to 4.5 per cent. Energy also has fallen from 10 per cent of US non-residential fixed investments in equipment and structures to 5 per cent.
So why are equities still so tightly bound to oil prices? Perhaps because the basic equation has not changed in market participants’ minds: China’s slowdown equals lower commodity prices, reflecting lower global growth and hence lower overall corporate earnings. The fact that many industrial companies benefit from lower commodities, let alone the service sector, does not register in this analysis.
We have some sympathy for this thinking, however, as long as world growth does not rally meaningfully, because no hard data dispels the negative news loop.
Nonetheless, there is a flaw in that analysis: why is the jobs market so buoyant in the US, why is consumer spending still growing at a post-recession high and why have US inflation break-evens rallied sharply?
Someone, somewhere, expects that US growth will not fail. The conundrum is that there are many data points showing a struggling manufacturing sector in most regions of the world.
This slowdown, though, does not cause contagion to the rest of the economy. Not in the US, Europe or Japan, where services are leading economic growth.
The trouble is that industrial stocks are over-represented in equity markets, whereas services are under-represented. The Ubers of the world may attract customers but they are not publicly quoted, whereas steel companies are part of all the indexes.
This confusion is leading many investors to stay on the sidelines rather than face complicated investment choices. Yet there are some potential changes in the world economy that could help investors to reposition themselves.
The long streak of poor productivity in the US may be about to end, with R&D spending recovering in the past two years; there is pent-up demand in capital expenditures and wage growth hitting corporate margins that could help to release it.
The consumer may return to more traditional saving and spending patterns after the recent surge in savings; all it would take would be a rise in mortgage rates to bring some fence-sitters into the housing market.
In China, the monetary stimulus accumulated over the past eight months may boost the economy.
In Japan, the summer upper house elections may prompt the Shinzo Abe government to favour fiscal policy over monetary policy and help spending by further postponing next year’s sales tax hike and driving a labour market reform through the tax system.
Last, but not least, in the euro zone banks have been given a lifeline through additional targeted longer-term refinancing operations, helping bank credit and hence the economy.
On the downside, despite their bounce, oil prices could take longer to stabilise than expected and drag markets down again. The Federal Reserve could dither on its rates policy and confuse investors yet again. First quarter earnings may still lag.
Altogether, though, we see risks as more evenly balanced in the short term with some positive potential thereafter. Markets are so stuck in a valuation debate that focuses on US$120 in S&P earnings with a 16 times multiple that they may miss any additional growth potential along the way.
It is now clear that the volatility and disappointment we have seen since last summer was mainly caused by a downwards reappraisal of world growth prospects. This mindset is highly vulnerable to upside surprises.
Michel Perera is the chief investment strategist for Emea at JP Morgan Private Bank
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Destroyer
Director: Karyn Kusama
Cast: Nicole Kidman, Toby Kebbell, Sebastian Stan
Rating: 3/5
UAE release: January 31
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
if you go
The flights
Emirates flies to Delhi with fares starting from around Dh760 return, while Etihad fares cost about Dh783 return. From Delhi, there are connecting flights to Lucknow.
Where to stay
It is advisable to stay in Lucknow and make a day trip to Kannauj. A stay at the Lebua Lucknow hotel, a traditional Lucknowi mansion, is recommended. Prices start from Dh300 per night (excluding taxes).
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Jordan cabinet changes
In
- Raed Mozafar Abu Al Saoud, Minister of Water and Irrigation
- Dr Bassam Samir Al Talhouni, Minister of Justice
- Majd Mohamed Shoueikeh, State Minister of Development of Foundation Performance
- Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education and Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research
- Falah Abdalla Al Ammoush, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Basma Moussa Ishakat, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Ghazi Monawar Al Zein, Minister of Health
- Ibrahim Sobhi Alshahahede, Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Environment
- Dr Mohamed Suleiman Aburamman, Minister of Culture and Minister of Youth
Out
- Dr Adel Issa Al Tawissi, Minister of High Education and Scientific Research
- Hala Noaman “Basiso Lattouf”, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Mahmud Yassin Al Sheyab, Minister of Health
- Yahya Moussa Kasbi, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Nayef Hamidi Al Fayez, Minister of Environment
- Majd Mohamed Shoueika, Minister of Public Sector Development
- Khalid Moussa Al Huneifat, Minister of Agriculture
- Dr Awad Abu Jarad Al Mushakiba, Minister of Justice
- Mounir Moussa Ouwais, Minister of Water and Agriculture
- Dr Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education
- Mokarram Mustafa Al Kaysi, Minister of Youth
- Basma Mohamed Al Nousour, Minister of Culture
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
WTL%20SCHEDULE
%3Cp%3EDECEMBER%2019%20(6pm)%0D%3Cbr%3EKites%20v%20Eagles%0D%3Cbr%3EAliassime%20v%20Kyrgios%0D%3Cbr%3ESwiatek%20v%20Garcia%0D%3Cbr%3EEntertainment%3A%20Tiesto%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDECEMBER%2020%20(6pm)%0D%3Cbr%3EFalcons%20v%20Hawks%0D%3Cbr%3EDjokovic%20v%20Zverev%0D%3Cbr%3ESabalenka%20v%20Rybakina%0D%3Cbr%3EEntertainment%3A%20Wizkid%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EDECEMBER%2021%20(6pm)%0D%3Cbr%3EFalcons%20v%20Eagles%0D%3Cbr%3EDjokovic%20v%20Kyrgios%0D%3Cbr%3EBadosa%20v%20Garcia%0D%3Cbr%3EEntertainment%3A%20Ne-Yo%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EDECEMBER%2022%20(6pm)%0D%3Cbr%3EHawks%20v%20Kites%0D%3Cbr%3EThiem%20v%20Aliassime%0D%3Cbr%3EKontaveit%20v%20Swiatek%0D%3Cbr%3EEntertainment%3A%20deadmau5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EDECEMBER%2023%20(2pm)%0D%3Cbr%3EEagles%20v%20Hawks%0D%3Cbr%3EKyrgios%20v%20Zverev%0D%3Cbr%3EGarcia%20v%20Rybakina%0D%3Cbr%3EEntertainment%3A%20Mohammed%20Ramadan%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EDECEMBER%2023%20(6pm)%0D%3Cbr%3EFalcons%20v%20Kites%0D%3Cbr%3EDjokovic%20v%20Aliassime%0D%3Cbr%3ESabalenka%20v%20Swiatek%0D%3Cbr%3EEntertainment%3A%20Mohammed%20Ramadan%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EDECEMBER%2024%20(6pm)%0D%3Cbr%3EFinals%0D%3Cbr%3EEntertainment%3A%20Armin%20Van%20Buuren%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Structural%20weaknesses%20facing%20Israel%20economy
%3Cp%3E1.%20Labour%20productivity%20is%20lower%20than%20the%20average%20of%20the%20developed%20economies%2C%20particularly%20in%20the%20non-tradable%20industries.%3Cbr%3E2.%20The%20low%20level%20of%20basic%20skills%20among%20workers%20and%20the%20high%20level%20of%20inequality%20between%20those%20with%20various%20skills.%3Cbr%3E3.%20Low%20employment%20rates%2C%20particularly%20among%20Arab%20women%20and%20Ultra-Othodox%20Jewish%20men.%3Cbr%3E4.%20A%20lack%20of%20basic%20knowledge%20required%20for%20integration%20into%20the%20labour%20force%2C%20due%20to%20the%20lack%20of%20core%20curriculum%20studies%20in%20schools%20for%20Ultra-Othodox%20Jews.%3Cbr%3E5.%20A%20need%20to%20upgrade%20and%20expand%20physical%20infrastructure%2C%20particularly%20mass%20transit%20infrastructure.%3Cbr%3E6.%20The%20poverty%20rate%20at%20more%20than%20double%20the%20OECD%20average.%3Cbr%3E7.%20Population%20growth%20of%20about%202%20per%20cent%20per%20year%2C%20compared%20to%200.6%20per%20cent%20OECD%20average%20posing%20challenge%20for%20fiscal%20policy%20and%20underpinning%20pressure%20on%20education%2C%20health%20care%2C%20welfare%20housing%20and%20physical%20infrastructure%2C%20which%20will%20increase%20in%20the%20coming%20years.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Meydan race card
6.30pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,600m
7.05pm: Handicap Dh 185,000 2,000m
7.40pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,600m
8.15pm: Handicap Dh 190,000 1,400m
8.50pm: Handicap Dh 175,000 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap Dh 175,000 1,200m
10pm: Handicap Dh 165,000 1,600m
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Blonde
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAndrew%20Dominik%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAna%20de%20Armas%2C%20Adrien%20Brody%2C%20Bobby%20Cannavale%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
ANALYSTS’ TOP PICKS OF SAUDI BANKS IN 2019
Analyst: Aqib Mehboob of Saudi Fransi Capital
Top pick: National Commercial Bank
Reason: It will be at the forefront of project financing for government-led projects
Analyst: Shabbir Malik of EFG-Hermes
Top pick: Al Rajhi Bank
Reason: Defensive balance sheet, well positioned in retail segment and positively geared for rising rates
Analyst: Chiradeep Ghosh of Sico Bank
Top pick: Arab National Bank
Reason: Attractive valuation and good growth potential in terms of both balance sheet and dividends
The%20specs
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MATCH INFO
What: India v Afghanistan, first Test
When: Starts Thursday
Where: M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengalaru
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
RESULTS
West Asia Premiership
Thursday
Jebel Ali Dragons 13-34 Dubai Exiles
Friday
Dubai Knights Eagles 16-27 Dubai Tigers
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
In 2018, the ICRC received 27,756 trace requests in the Middle East alone. The global total was 45,507.
There are 139,018 global trace requests that have not been resolved yet, 55,672 of these are in the Middle East region.
More than 540,000 individuals approached the ICRC in the Middle East asking to be reunited with missing loved ones in 2018.
The total figure for the entire world was 654,000 in 2018.
