Over the past month, positive momentum in global equity markets continued, with the S&P 500 Index touching a record high.
US market performance has been primarily driven by expectations of pro-growth policy measures to be introduced by US president Donald Trump’s administration, but corporate profitability of US companies has also been supportive of 2016 numbers, showing a 1 per cent positive earnings surprise.
For regional markets, dividend season remains in focus with Saudi, Egypt and Morocco performing poorly during February.
In the first two months of the year the Dubai index is up by 5 per cent and Mena markets by 1 per cent, although both underperformed the wider emerging markets index, which is up by 9 per cent.
Oil prices remained flat during the past month, hovering around US$55 per barrel for Brent crude. The US rig count continues to increase and stands at 602 compared to 566 at the end of January. US oil inventory levels touched a 52-week high of 520 million barrels with a 25 million barrels increase reported last month.
Implementation of Opec production cuts remains on target, however, oil production in the US is inching higher driven by stable oil prices. US oil production rose to 9.03 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 260,000 bpd this year. It is expected that US oil production could increase by 500,000 to 1 million bpd in 2017.
In the UAE, fourth-quarter earnings releases have now been completed. Emaar Properties reported better than expected Q4 2016 revenues (16 per cent rise year-on-year) and net profit (56 per cent up year-on-year) supported by solid revenues from property sales and the reversal of a Dh300 million insurance claim.
Arabtec and Drake & Scull International posted losses, which adversely impacted market sentiment.
Arabtec reported a 2016 net loss of Dh3.5billion, mainly due to impairment charges against certain projects. Arabtec announced its plan to raise equity through a Dh1.5bn rights issue along with a capital reduction plan, which will help the company to offset accumulated losses on the balance sheet and facilitate raising new capital.
Proceeds from the rights issue will be used to fund completion of ongoing projects and also to pursue growth opportunities going forward.
Aldar Properties reported better than expected quarterly profit, while Etisalat announced a 19.5 per cent year-on-year increase in net profit supported by solid operations in the domestic market and by its subsidiary Maroc Telecom.
The Federal Government approved a new visa system to attract talent to the UAE in the field of sciences and medicines.
Under the new scheme, the government will offer permanent residency for foreign workers, the new visa system could also be supportive for the real estate market in the country in the long term. Meanwhile, tourism numbers in Dubai increased by 5 per cent year-on-year to 14.9 million in 2016 with an impressive five-year compounded annual growth rate of 8 per cent from 2012 to 2016, mainly led by a surge in tourist arrivals from China, Russia and India.
Overall, UAE markets have performed better than regional markets on a year-to-date basis and we remain positive on the medium-term outlook. As the dividend season comes to an end, market focus will move towards first-quarter earnings, stock-specific catalysts and economic reform announcements.
Saleem Khokhar is the head of fund management at National Bank of Abu Dhabi
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Race card
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) US$100,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Meydan Classic Listed (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,600m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,600m
8.50pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 2 (TB) $300,000 (T) 2,810m
9.25pm: Curlin Stakes Listed (TB) $175,000 (D) 2,000m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
10.35pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
The National selections
6.30pm: Shahm, 7.05pm: Well Of Wisdom, 7.40pm: Lucius Tiberius, 8.15pm: Captain Von Trapp, 8.50pm: Secret Advisor, 9.25pm: George Villiers, 10pm: American Graffiti, 10.35pm: On The Warpath
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
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The biog
Name: Abeer Al Bah
Born: 1972
Husband: Emirati lawyer Salem Bin Sahoo, since 1992
Children: Soud, born 1993, lawyer; Obaid, born 1994, deceased; four other boys and one girl, three months old
Education: BA in Elementary Education, worked for five years in a Dubai school
Company%20profile
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Day 1, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Sadeera Samarawickrama set pulses racing with his strokeplay on his introduction to Test cricket. It reached a feverish peak when he stepped down the wicket and launched Yasir Shah, who many regard as the world’s leading spinner, back over his head for six. No matter that he was out soon after: it felt as though the future had arrived.
Stat of the day - 5 The last time Sri Lanka played a Test in Dubai – they won here in 2013 – they had four players in their XI who were known as wicketkeepers. This time they have gone one better. Each of Dinesh Chandimal, Kaushal Silva, Samarawickrama, Kusal Mendis, and Niroshan Dickwella – the nominated gloveman here – can keep wicket.
The verdict Sri Lanka want to make history by becoming the first team to beat Pakistan in a full Test series in the UAE. They could not have made a better start, first by winning the toss, then by scoring freely on an easy-paced pitch. The fact Yasir Shah found some turn on Day 1, too, will have interested their own spin bowlers.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
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ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
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Eyasses squad
Charlie Preston (captain) – goal shooter/ goalkeeper (Dubai College)
Arushi Holt (vice-captain) – wing defence / centre (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Olivia Petricola (vice-captain) – centre / wing attack (Dubai English Speaking College)
Isabel Affley – goalkeeper / goal defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Jemma Eley – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Alana Farrell-Morton – centre / wing / defence / wing attack (Nord Anglia International School)
Molly Fuller – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Caitlin Gowdy – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Noorulain Hussain – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai College)
Zahra Hussain-Gillani – goal defence / goalkeeper (British School Al Khubairat)
Claire Janssen – goal shooter / goal attack (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Eliza Petricola – wing attack / centre (Dubai English Speaking College)
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The years Ramadan fell in May
Top Hundred overseas picks
London Spirit: Kieron Pollard, Riley Meredith
Welsh Fire: Adam Zampa, David Miller, Naseem Shah
Manchester Originals: Andre Russell, Wanindu Hasaranga, Sean Abbott
Northern Superchargers: Dwayne Bravo, Wahab Riaz
Oval Invincibles: Sunil Narine, Rilee Rossouw
Trent Rockets: Colin Munro
Birmingham Phoenix: Matthew Wade, Kane Richardson
Southern Brave: Quinton de Kock
