The smooth sailing for Asian emerging markets this year has Citigroup analysts getting antsy. They’ve identified four major risks that could lead to a more turbulent second half.
While resilient growth, benign inflation, a carry-friendly environment, Chinese reforms and market-friendly political transitions could still be the dominant themes for the region over the rest the year, the outlook is "uncomfortably sanguine", analysts led by Asia-Pacific chief economist Johanna Chua wrote in a report released at the end of last week.
Here’s a look at four key risks facing Asian markets:
Hawkish Fed
How far will major central banks including the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank go to tighten policies while structural drags on inflation and growth exist? The Fed's move will have greater impact on Asia as the dollar is the more important currency. "A sudden shift in expectations can be a source of market volatility without accompanying positive spillovers to fundamentals in the region," the report said.
Seeping Populism
Emerging Asian economies have benefited from prudent policies leading to stronger balance sheets in the past few years, however economic gains haven’t been redistributed equally. That leaves many countries vulnerable to more populist policies. This may be especially true in China and Malaysia, where both countries are “visibly more accommodative than the norm” as they go through political transitions while defending the dominant regime.
China’s Regulations
Market observers have expected China’s regulators to err on the side of caution in the run-up to the 19th Party Congress later this year, leading to some complacency among investors as stocks rallied. Once the congress is underway, “there is risk that policy priorities will shift toward more financial regulatory tightening versus growth stability, which could take markets by surprise,” the report said.
Kim Jong Un
Finally, the wildest card in the bunch is the “unbridled bravado” of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. With diplomatic solutions appearing distant, “scenarios that could be contemplated” include the US pursuing tougher sanctions, pressuring China to embargo oil exports to the North, and even military options. The market impact of any hint of military escalation would be widespread risk aversion and dollar buying, leading to initial yen strength that would then reverse as conflict spreads, the report said.
Bloomberg
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
'Panga'
Directed by Ashwiny Iyer Tiwari
Starring Kangana Ranaut, Richa Chadha, Jassie Gill, Yagya Bhasin, Neena Gupta
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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%3Cp%3EBy%202030%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%20aims%20to%20achieve%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%2039.3%20million%20visitors%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20nearly%2064%25%20up%20from%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%20Dh90%20billion%20contribution%20to%20GDP%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20about%2084%25%20more%20than%20Dh49%20billion%20in%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%20178%2C000%20new%20jobs%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20bringing%20the%20total%20to%20about%20366%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%2052%2C000%20hotel%20rooms%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20up%2053%25%20from%2034%2C000%20in%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%207.2%20million%20international%20visitors%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20almost%2090%25%20higher%20compared%20to%202023's%203.8%20million%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%203.9%20international%20overnight%20hotel%20stays%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2022%25%20more%20from%203.2%20nights%20in%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
THE LIGHT
Director: Tom Tykwer
Starring: Tala Al Deen, Nicolette Krebitz, Lars Eidinger
Rating: 3/5
Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
