Emerging-market equities are sinking and the US dollar is routing developing-nation currencies to an extent not seen since right after Donald Trump’s shock election.
This time, it’s the US president’s plan to dramatically cut tax rates for businesses that’s causing the undoing. Emerging-market traders, who fear the overhaul will spark the repatriation of dollars, could be forgiven for having a flashback to November, when the president’s win and promise of pro-business reforms set off a 7 per cent rout in the asset class.
But a cohort of money managers and strategists, including JPMorgan Chase & Co, UBS Wealth Management and Standard Life Investments say this time is different. Shares in developing nations are just pulling back after a 27 per cent rip over the first nine months of the year.
"It’s more a bump in the road than a different road," said Kieran Curtis, who helps oversee US$5 billion in emerging-market debt at Standard Life in London and favors the Mexican peso, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit. "It’s not clear that the tax plan will cause a massive dollar bull trade. Spending is good for growth in the US as well as EM."
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Read more:
India's Sensex headed for a record high
Rich in emerging markets to bolster growth of global wealth managers
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Here are other reasons why emerging-market assets have room to go higher:
Lucy Qiu, an analyst at UBS Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office, which oversees strategy for $2.2 trillion in assets.
Emerging-market growth is holding up with the GDP growth premium against developed markets set to widen.
Real rates remain high in many nations and some countries such as Brazil and Russia have room to cut rates despite Fed tightening.
Average earnings per share is up 18 per cent this year with margins still in early stage of recovery.
Developing-nation stocks have only recouped one-third of the outflows they suffered from 2013 to 2016.
Adrian Mowat, chief Asia and emerging markets equity strategist at JPMorgan.
While there’s concern that a few additional data points of higher inflation might put short-term pressure on emerging markets, leading to a neutral stance, the firm is still bullish on the asset class.
Earnings continue rising for second year contributing to bulk of stock return
"When you’ve got those fundamentals, people’s attitude toward high interest rates is that it’s a bullish story on the economy and it’s a steeper yield curve, which is generally good news for risk, growth assets," he says.
Robert Marshall-Lee, a fund manager at London-based Newton Investment Management , whose $210 million emerging-market equity fund has topped 95 per cent of peers this year.
"I don’t care about short-term gyrations -- they create an opportunity," he says
He sees return potential exceeding 50 per cent over five years for emerging-market investments in his fund, which has its largest weights in India, China, South Africa and South Korea.
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Info
What: 11th edition of the Mubadala World Tennis Championship
When: December 27-29, 2018
Confirmed: men: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, Hyeon Chung, Karen Khachanov; women: Venus Williams
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae, Virgin megastores or call 800 86 823
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Company%20Profile
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Formula%204%20Italian%20Championship%202023%20calendar
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How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The%20specs
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The%20specs
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs: 2019 Subaru Forester
Price, base: Dh105,900 (Premium); Dh115,900 (Sport)
Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 182hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 239Nm @ 4,400rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.1L / 100km (estimated)
Fight card
- Aliu Bamidele Lasisi (Nigeria) beat Artid Vamrungauea (Thailand) POINTS
- Julaidah Abdulfatah (Saudi Arabia) beat Martin Kabrhel (Czech Rep) POINTS
- Kem Ljungquist (Denmark) beat Mourad Omar (Egypt) TKO
- Michael Lawal (UK) beat Tamas Kozma (Hungary) KO
- Zuhayr Al Qahtani (Saudi Arabia) beat Mohammed Mahmoud (UK) POINTS
- Darren Surtees (UK) beat Kane Baker (UK) KO
- Chris Eubank Jr (UK) beat JJ McDonagh (Ireland) TKO
- Callum Smith (UK) beat George Groves (UK) KO
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
TOURNAMENT INFO
2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Regional Qualifier
The top three teams progress to the Asia Qualifier
Thursday results
UAE beat Kuwait by 86 runs
Qatar beat Bahrain by five wickets
Saudi Arabia beat Maldives by 35 runs
Friday fixtures
10am, third-place playoff – Saudi Arabia v Kuwait
3pm, final – UAE v Qatar
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Tuesday's fixtures
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
So what is Spicy Chickenjoy?
Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.