Emerging-market stocks posted their biggest gain in more than two months and an index of developing world currencies erased this year’s losses as concern faded about a surprise victory for incumbent President Donald Trump.
While the US presidential race is still too close to call, assets rebounded from a sell-off that accelerated when Mr Trump claimed victory and said he would petition the Supreme Court to intervene.
While a Democratic sweep of the presidency, Senate and House is not likely, challenger Joe Biden picked up key battleground states on Wednesday, prompting a risk-on mood for emerging-market investors.
The Mexican peso, a key emerging-market barometer because of high liquidity and a 24-hour trading day, overnight lost as much as 5 per cent before bouncing back.
Brazil’s real and South Africa’s rand led gains in developing world currencies.
“Legal challenges to the vote count could keep volatility in emerging market assets high in the very near term,” said Alejo Czerwonko, the chief investment officer for emerging markets Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management in New York.
“That said, we’ll eventually get past that and the likelihood of higher US fiscal spending, a faster economic recovery and higher inflation expectations should all support emerging markets into 2021.”
MSCI’s currency gauge rose 0.5 per cent after losing as much as 0.8 per cent earlier. The Indian rupee and Turkish lira were the biggest decliners.
MSCI’s index of emerging-market equities was up 1.5 per cent. The risk premium on developing-nation sovereign bonds narrowed three basis points.
“Risk sentiment should broadly remain supported as long as it is just a delay in getting the election outcome,” said Dirk Willer, a strategist at Citigroup Global Markets in New York.
“But there is a risk to broad sentiment if the process drags beyond this week with potential for legal challenges.”
Stocks rallied this week amid speculation a Biden victory would allow politicians to pass a US stimulus plan and reduce geopolitical uncertainty.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who won his re-election bid, said a stimulus bill was needed before the end of the year.
“Markets are moving from pricing a blue sweep as the most likely scenario to pricing political paralysis amid risks of a contested election,” said Witold Bahrke, a strategist at Nordea Investment Management in Copenhagen.
“It’s difficult to talk about any winner across emerging markets if Biden doesn’t win the White House race or if we get a contested election.”
South Africa’s rand reversed a drop of as much as 2.2 per cent, breaching 16 to the dollar for the first time since March, with favourable local economic data supporting the currency.
Emerging markets are an attractive investment opportunity in the event of a Biden presidency and a Republican-controlled Senate, the world’s largest money manager said.
Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock in New York, said developing-nation assets looked more appealing in this low-rate world and could also benefit from a more moderate leader in the White House.
“We’ll have a dynamic with a decent economy, presumably if you don’t have a second wave of Covid, so I actually find some of the risk assets – some of the yielding assets – much more attractive than Treasuries,” Mr Rieder told Bloomberg TV.
“Buying the 10-year note at 75 basis points won’t take your return to the promised land.”
Shamaila Khan, director of emerging-market debt at AllianceBernstein in New York, says she is still positive on emerging-market bonds.
“There will still be stimulus even without a blue wave, just the timing and scope will be different,” Ms Khan said.
“A Biden presidency could lead to lower headline risk on China. The most important risk that we are looking at is the vaccine, however, to further drive EM performance.”
Jens Nystedt, a senior portfolio manager at EMSO Asset Management in New York, said: “We’re seeing a positive reaction in EM to some more clarity with regards to the US election outcome in the near future.
"Lower likelihood of sizeable fiscal stimulus caps US interest rates. Hence, we’re seeing increased demand for EM duration.”
A Biden win would not guarantee the stimulus bill emerging-market investors are banking on, said Christopher Shiells, an analyst at Informa Global Markets in London.
“The positive EM picture was for the blue wave and thus a new wave of stimulus, but even if Biden is declared the winner, the Senate looks like it will remain Republican so there will be no easy path to stimulus,” Mr Shiells said.
“Still, I believe that EM investors will stay looking beyond this and towards year-end look ahead to the 2021 economic recovery.
"If there is progress on a Covid vaccine then it will be a positive EM picture and thus some may take the US election volatility as an opportunity to buy.”
If Mr Biden does not win, implications for emerging markets would be limited said Tuan Huynh, chief investment officer for Europe and Asia-Pacific at Deutsche Bank International Private Bank in Frankfurt.
A win to Mr Trump would maintain the status quo, with further tensions between the US and China, Mr Huynh said.
Mr Biden may not change the US stance towards China but the tone would be “more civilised".
Rafael Nadal's record at the MWTC
2009 Finalist
2010 Champion
Jan 2011 Champion
Dec 2011 Semi-finalist
Dec 2012 Did not play
Dec 2013 Semi-finalist
2015 Semi-finalist
Jan 2016 Champion
Dec 2016 Champion
2017 Did not play
Company%20profile
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8
Power: 503hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 685Nm at 2,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Price: from Dh850,000
On sale: now
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
PRO BASH
Thursday’s fixtures
6pm: Hyderabad Nawabs v Pakhtoon Warriors
10pm: Lahore Sikandars v Pakhtoon Blasters
Teams
Chennai Knights, Lahore Sikandars, Pakhtoon Blasters, Abu Dhabi Stars, Abu Dhabi Dragons, Pakhtoon Warriors and Hyderabad Nawabs.
Squad rules
All teams consist of 15-player squads that include those contracted in the diamond (3), platinum (2) and gold (2) categories, plus eight free to sign team members.
Tournament rules
The matches are of 25 over-a-side with an 8-over power play in which only two fielders allowed outside the 30-yard circle. Teams play in a single round robin league followed by the semi-finals and final. The league toppers will feature in the semi-final eliminator.
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.
Abu Dhabi GP Saturday schedule
12.30pm GP3 race (18 laps)
2pm Formula One final practice
5pm Formula One qualifying
6.40pm Formula 2 race (31 laps)
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Profile of MoneyFellows
Founder: Ahmed Wadi
Launched: 2016
Employees: 76
Financing stage: Series A ($4 million)
Investors: Partech, Sawari Ventures, 500 Startups, Dubai Angel Investors, Phoenician Fund
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
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Men's football draw
Group A: UAE, Spain, South Africa, Jamaica
Group B: Bangladesh, Serbia, Korea
Group C: Bharat, Denmark, Kenya, USA
Group D: Oman, Austria, Rwanda
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Infobox
Western Region Asia Cup Qualifier, Al Amerat, Oman
The two finalists advance to the next stage of qualifying, in Malaysia in August
Results
UAE beat Iran by 10 wickets
Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by eight wickets
Oman beat Bahrain by nine wickets
Qatar beat Maldives by 106 runs
Monday fixtures
UAE v Kuwait, Iran v Saudi Arabia, Oman v Qatar, Maldives v Bahrain
The five pillars of Islam
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
More coverage from the Future Forum
Visa changes give families fresh hope
Foreign workers can sponsor family members based solely on their income
Male residents employed in the UAE can sponsor immediate family members, such as wife and children, subject to conditions that include a minimum salary of Dh 4,000 or Dh 3,000 plus accommodation.
Attested original marriage certificate, birth certificate of the child, ejari or rental contract, labour contract, salary certificate must be submitted to the government authorised typing centre to complete the sponsorship process
In Abu Dhabi, a woman can sponsor her husband and children if she holds a residence permit stating she is an engineer, teacher, doctor, nurse or any profession related to the medical sector and her monthly salary is at least Dh 10,000 or Dh 8,000 plus accommodation.
In Dubai, if a woman is not employed in the above categories she can get approval to sponsor her family if her monthly salary is more than Dh 10,000 and with a special permission from the Department of Naturalization and Residency Dubai.
To sponsor parents, a worker should earn Dh20,000 or Dh19,000 a month, plus a two-bedroom accommodation
The years Ramadan fell in May
The five pillars of Islam
