Investors need to widen their investment horizons this year.
The US economy is expected to accelerate this year, as the weakness in the first quarter of last year is unlikely to be repeated.
Europe and Japan are also likely to post slightly stronger growth next year.
The main fly in the ointment is China, which is likely to decelerate somewhat as the authorities remain focused on reforms that naturally represent a trade-off between short-term and long-term growth.
Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain relatively benign, with the global output gap remaining wide and lower oil prices reducing inflationary pressures. This should allow the majority of central banks to loosen monetary policy, supporting risk appetite.
However, this year traditional asset classes are likely to generate lower, but still positive, investment returns. Global equity valuations have generally increased over the past two to three years. This is not something to be too concerned about, but it does mean that forward-looking returns are unlikely to be as strong as they have been (they have risen almost 50 per cent since the end of 2011 on a total-return basis).
Meanwhile, bond yields have discounted a lot of disinflationary pressures already, which means any upside surprise on the growth and inflation front could undermine returns here as well.
Volatility is also likely to increase this year.
The first Fed rate hike of the cycle is normally a period associated with increased market volatility.
The good news is the Fed looks keen to err on the side of caution. Therefore, any rise in interest rates is likely to be gradual and well-signalled.
The bad news is the market is pricing in a slower pace of rate hikes than the Fed’s committee members are forecasting. The gap will have to narrow this year, either with Fed members reducing the pace of forecast rate rises or the market adjusting their expectations up somewhat. Expect a combination of the two, but this still implies a market adjustment that could increase short-term volatility.
We at Standard Chartered do not believe that the end of the developed market equity bull run is near. History teaches us that equity markets usually rise well into the rate hiking cycle – usually until the Fed’s focus shifts to combating inflation rather than supporting growth.
However, lower returns and higher volatility will make gains feel much harder to achieve than they have been since 2012.
It is against this backdrop that investors need to widen their investment horizons to areas less travelled. This includes taking advantage of higher volatility by selling options as volatility spikes – a more conventional approach would be to buy Developed Market equities on dips, a strategy we expect to remain profitablethis year. It also includes selective investments in some Asian local currency bond markets such as China and India, an area that clearly fits into the theme of adopting a diversified approach to income investing.
Finally, there are many alternative strategies that are likely to generate a good risk-return profile in 2015, relative to the more traditional asset classes.
Overall, we remain constructive on risk assets, despite the likelihood of the Fed hiking interest rates for the first time since 2006.
However, we would recommend investors consider complementing global equity investments with less traditional sources of returns.
Steve Brice is the chief investment strategist of the wealth management group at Standard Chartered Bank
Follow The National's Business section on Twitter
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Kareem Shaheen on Canada
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
Zayed Sustainability Prize
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
While you're here
The National editorial: Turkey's soft power weighs heavy on Europe's Muslims
Con Coughlin: How extremists use Zoom and other tools to exploit pandemic
Nicky Harley: Peace TV preacher Zakir Naik prompts UK hate laws review
You might also like
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
While you're here
Hussein Ibish: Could it be game over for Donald Trump?
Joyce Karam: Trump's campaign thrown off balance
Trump tests positive: everything we know so far
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Our commentary on Brexit
- Alistair Burt: Despite Brexit, Britain can remain a world power
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
New schools in Dubai
Tomorrow 2021
More coverage from the Future Forum
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Other ways to buy used products in the UAE
UAE insurance firm Al Wathba National Insurance Company (AWNIC) last year launched an e-commerce website with a facility enabling users to buy car wrecks.
Bidders and potential buyers register on the online salvage car auction portal to view vehicles, review condition reports, or arrange physical surveys, and then start bidding for motors they plan to restore or harvest for parts.
Physical salvage car auctions are a common method for insurers around the world to move on heavily damaged vehicles, but AWNIC is one of the few UAE insurers to offer such services online.
For cars and less sizeable items such as bicycles and furniture, Dubizzle is arguably the best-known marketplace for pre-loved.
Founded in 2005, in recent years it has been joined by a plethora of Facebook community pages for shifting used goods, including Abu Dhabi Marketplace, Flea Market UAE and Arabian Ranches Souq Market while sites such as The Luxury Closet and Riot deal largely in second-hand fashion.
At the high-end of the pre-used spectrum, resellers such as Timepiece360.ae, WatchBox Middle East and Watches Market Dubai deal in authenticated second-hand luxury timepieces from brands such as Rolex, Hublot and Tag Heuer, with a warranty.
While you're here
Gavin Esler: Coronavirus offers stinging rebuke to protectionists
Kareem Shaheen: Pandemics can save us from waging wars
Sholto Byrnes: Why the climate change clash will get nastier
FIXTURES
Monday, January 28
Iran v Japan, Hazza bin Zayed Stadium (6pm)
Tuesday, January 29
UAEv Qatar, Mohamed Bin Zayed Stadium (6pm)
Friday, February 1
Final, Zayed Sports City Stadium (6pm)
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
World Mental Health Day
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
While you're here
While you're here
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Our commentary on Brexit
- Con Coughlin: Choice of the British people will be vindicated
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Scotland's team:
15-Sean Maitland, 14-Darcy Graham, 13-Nick Grigg, 12-Sam Johnson, 11-Byron McGuigan, 10-Finn Russell, 9-Ali Price, 8-Magnus Bradbury, 7-Hamish Watson, 6-Sam Skinner, 5-Grant Gilchrist, 4-Ben Toolis, 3-Willem Nel, 2-Stuart McInally (captain), 1-Allan Dell
Replacements: 16-Fraser Brown, 17-Gordon Reid, 18-Simon Berghan, 19-Jonny Gray, 20-Josh Strauss, 21-Greig Laidlaw, 22-Adam Hastings, 23-Chris Harris
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
MATCH INFO
Southampton 0
Manchester City 1 (Sterling 16')
Man of the match: Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City)
Zayed Sustainability Prize
THE BIO
BIO:
Born in RAK on December 9, 1983
Lives in Abu Dhabi with her family
She graduated from Emirates University in 2007 with a BA in architectural engineering
Her motto in life is her grandmother’s saying “That who created you will not have you get lost”
Her ambition is to spread UAE’s culture of love and acceptance through serving coffee, the country’s traditional coffee in particular.
While you're here
COMPANY%20PROFILE
RESULTS
2pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (Dirt) 1,400m. Winner: Masaali, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
2.30pm: Handicap Dh 76,000 (D) 1,400m. Winner: Almoreb, Dane O’Neill, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
3pm: Handicap Dh 64,000 (D) 1,200m. Winner: Imprison, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.
3.30pm: Shadwell Farm Conditions Dh 100,000 (D) 1,000m. Winner: Raahy, Adrie de Vries, Jaber Ramadhan.
4pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (D) 1,000m. Winner: Cross The Ocean, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
4.30pm: Handicap 64,000 (D) 1,950m. Winner: Sa’Ada, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash.
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
More from Neighbourhood Watch
While you're here
Kareem Shaheen: Even a pandemic could not unite today's America
Michele Wucker: The difference between a black swan and a grey rhino
Robert Matthews: Has flawed science and rushed research failed us?
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
While you're here
Hend Al Otaiba: A year ago, Covid-19 forced us apart – now, vaccines can bring us back together
National Editorial: Iata travel pass – 'digital passports' will get the world moving again
Lucy Sherriff: Covid vaccine passports: safeguard or ethical nightmare?
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
While you're here
Bryant Harris: What Joe Biden did during his first week as US President
Kareem Shaheen: Omar Alghabra outshines the racists who malign him
Kareem Shaheen: Canada is failing those who bear its greatest Covid-19 burdens
School uniforms report
UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
World Mental Health Day
While you're here
Cheryl Thompson: Stop the practice of blackface that's as Canadian as hockey
Kareem Shaheen: Alghabra outshines the racists who malign him
Kareem Shaheen: In Canada, I have finally found a home
The%20specs
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Neighbourhood Watch
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
More on animal trafficking
Tomorrow 2021
Plastic tipping points
The Bio
Ram Buxani earned a salary of 125 rupees per month in 1959
Indian currency was then legal tender in the Trucial States.
He received the wages plus food, accommodation, a haircut and cinema ticket twice a month and actuals for shaving and laundry expenses
Buxani followed in his father’s footsteps when he applied for a job overseas
His father Jivat Ram worked in general merchandize store in Gibraltar and the Canary Islands in the early 1930s
Buxani grew the UAE business over several sectors from retail to financial services but is attached to the original textile business
He talks in detail about natural fibres, the texture of cloth, mirrorwork and embroidery
Buxani lives by a simple philosophy – do good to all
The five pillars of Islam
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
Tomorrow 2021
Match info
Bournemouth 1 (King 45 1')
Arsenal 2 (Lerma 30' og, Aubameyang 67')
Man of the Match: Sead Kolasinac (Arsenal)
Ads on social media can 'normalise' drugs
A UK report on youth social media habits commissioned by advocacy group Volteface found a quarter of young people were exposed to illegal drug dealers on social media.
The poll of 2,006 people aged 16-24 assessed their exposure to drug dealers online in a nationally representative survey.
Of those admitting to seeing drugs for sale online, 56 per cent saw them advertised on Snapchat, 55 per cent on Instagram and 47 per cent on Facebook.
Cannabis was the drug most pushed by online dealers, with 63 per cent of survey respondents claiming to have seen adverts on social media for the drug, followed by cocaine (26 per cent) and MDMA/ecstasy, with 24 per cent of people.
Kareem Shaheen on Canada
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Avatar%3A%20The%20Way%20of%20Water
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Transgender report
Transgender report
HWJN
Whiile you're here
Damien McElroy: Anti-science attitudes in America are proving lethal
Editorial: What makes the UAE such a good place to test vaccines?
Editorial: The fight against Covid-19 should be guided by science
Profile
Co-founders of the company: Vilhelm Hedberg and Ravi Bhusari
Launch year: In 2016 ekar launched and signed an agreement with Etihad Airways in Abu Dhabi. In January 2017 ekar launched in Dubai in a partnership with the RTA.
Number of employees: Over 50
Financing stage: Series B currently being finalised
Investors: Series A - Audacia Capital
Sector of operation: Transport
On Women's Day
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
