The International Monetary Fund said it was closely monitoring longer-term US treasuries, as uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's tariffs cause mayhem across financial markets.
In its Global Financial Stability Report published on Tuesday, the IMF said Mr Trump's tariffs had “significantly” increased risks to financial stability.
The report comes as Mr Trump's agenda hangs over the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington.
Global markets slumped after the US leader's announcement on April 2 was larger and broader than analysts had expected, leading to a mass sell-off over fears of a potential US-led global economic downturn. But it was the surge in the bond market that led Mr Trump to pare back his so-called reciprocal tariffs one week after the announcement.
Investors typically snap up government bonds during times of market volatility, but instead the yield on the 10-year Treasury surged to 4.51 per cent while the yield on the 30-year topped 5 per cent. Yields on the 10 and 30-year treasuries have climbed down to about 4.37 per cent and 4.85 per cent, respectively.
“We are looking at the pricing of long-dated treasuries very carefully,” Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department, said at a news briefing. “We have seen a volatility in the prices moves but these are within normal historic norms. We have not seen disorderly leveraging at this point.”
His remarks came a day after the US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell to a three-year low. That has sparked concerns of the dollar's status as a safe haven.
“What is somewhat unusual is that the dollar has been falling to some degree but it's important to keep it in the context of a strong dollar rally previously,” Mr Adrian said.
He added that it was unusual to see the dollar declining at the same time as longer-term yields increasing but it was “too early to tell” how long-lasting that would be.
Central bank independence
The latest bout of market volatility comes as Mr Trump steps up his attacks on Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, threatening the central bank's independence.
His threats against Mr Powell – recently posting on social media that his “termination cannot come soon enough!” – could also shake the confidence of investors who rely on an independent central bank's monetary policy decisions.
Mr Powell had said the President's levies could put the Fed in the difficult position of having to choose between its two mandates: price stability and maximum employment.
“We have seen time and time again that central bank independence is the bond foundation for central banks to achieve their goals,” Mr Adrian said.
Those remarks echoed sentiments made by IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, who earlier said central banks must preserve their independence to maintain credibility in fighting inflation.
And speaking on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde told CNBC that she hoped Mr Trump would not try to fire Mr Powell.
Mr Powell maintains that the President does not have the legal authority to fire him or governors on the Federal Reserve Board.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group H
Manchester United v Young Boys, Tuesday, midnight (UAE)
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Country-size land deals
US interest in purchasing territory is not as outlandish as it sounds. Here's a look at some big land transactions between nations:
Louisiana Purchase
If Donald Trump is one who aims to broker "a deal of the century", then this was the "deal of the 19th Century". In 1803, the US nearly doubled in size when it bought 2,140,000 square kilometres from France for $15 million.
Florida Purchase Treaty
The US courted Spain for Florida for years. Spain eventually realised its burden in holding on to the territory and in 1819 effectively ceded it to America in a wider border treaty.
Alaska purchase
America's spending spree continued in 1867 when it acquired 1,518,800 km2 of Alaskan land from Russia for $7.2m. Critics panned the government for buying "useless land".
The Philippines
At the end of the Spanish-American War, a provision in the 1898 Treaty of Paris saw Spain surrender the Philippines for a payment of $20 million.
US Virgin Islands
It's not like a US president has never reached a deal with Denmark before. In 1917 the US purchased the Danish West Indies for $25m and renamed them the US Virgin Islands.
Gwadar
The most recent sovereign land purchase was in 1958 when Pakistan bought the southwestern port of Gwadar from Oman for 5.5bn Pakistan rupees.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Nations League
League A, Group 4
Spain v England, 10.45pm (UAE)
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Malcolm & Marie
Directed by: Sam Levinson
Starring: John David Washington and Zendaya
Three stars
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Teri%20Baaton%20Mein%20Aisa%20Uljha%20Jiya
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MATCH INFO
Borussia Dortmund 0
Bayern Munich 1 (Kimmich 43')
Man of the match: Joshua Kimmich (Bayern Munich)
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
RedCrow Intelligence Company Profile
Started: 2016
Founders: Hussein Nasser Eddin, Laila Akel, Tayeb Akel
Based: Ramallah, Palestine
Sector: Technology, Security
# of staff: 13
Investment: $745,000
Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors
The Bio
Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”
Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”
Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”
Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”
Frida%20
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The specs: 2018 Mercedes-AMG C63 S Cabriolet
Price, base: Dh429,090
Engine 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission Seven-speed automatic
Power 510hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 700Nm @ 1,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.2L / 100km
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
The Gandhi Murder
- 71 - Years since the death of MK Gandhi, also christened India's Father of the Nation
- 34 - Nationalities featured in the film The Gandhi Murder
- 7 - million dollars, the film's budget
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
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