US President Donald Trump unveiled his grand Liberation Day tariff agenda last week that erased $6 trillion in the biggest two-day wipeout after the announcement on Wednesday.
Wall Street clawed some of those losses back when the US reversed its position on tariffs a week later, but investor confidence in America being a reliable trading partner and a global investment destination is severely jolted.
Was a relief stock rally enough to restore their confidence? Has Mr Trump’s astonishing about-face, roughly 13 hours after tariffs at a 100-year high went into effect on 56 nations and the EU, done anything to convince investors otherwise?
Are the white-knuckle rides investors suffered over the past week over? Do they have an idea where the markets are heading now? The simple answer is no.
Uncertainty is still rife and investors, though rejoicing at the relief rally, are not sure what the days and weeks to follow will hold for them. The euphoria of Thursday's relief rally has already worn off, with markets slumping the very next day.
“Trying to predict the next minute in this market is nearly impossible,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said. “The US has gone completely off-script. Donald Trump will go down in history as the most unpredictable US president at best – and at worst as the one who dismantled the very idea of American exceptionalism.”
Mr Trump on Wednesday ordered a 90-day pause on so-called reciprocal tariffs on all countries except China. The announcement followed warnings from Mr Trump’s billionaire backers and business leaders of a potential recession caused by the US administration's push for tariffs.
“I have authorised a 90-day pause, and a substantially lowered reciprocal tariff during this period, of 10 per cent, also effective immediately,” Mr Trump wrote on social media. However, he raised duties on Chinese imports from 104 per cent to 125 per cent after China increased tariffs on US goods to 84 per cent.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later clarified that Mr Trump is maintaining the 10 per cent tariff on nearly all global imports. He said at the White House that the market did not understand the higher tariffs as “those were maximum levels”.
US financial markets rallied following the tariff suspension announcement and investors grabbed the buying opportunity with both hands after the biggest two-day wipeout in the history of US stocks last week, with a combined $6.6 trillion in value erased on Thursday and Friday.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index ended trade with more than 12 per cent gains, while the S&P 500 Index surged 9.25 per cent, its best showing since the global financial crisis. The Dow Jones Index rallied 7.87 per cent. Shares in Asia joined the relief rally on Thursday and equities benchmarks in the Middle East and Europe posted sharp gains.
However, the sell-off on Wall Street and the broader Asian equity markets resumed on Friday.
“Market participants quite rightly rejoiced at the news in the hope that the delay will allow room for negotiation, compromise and an ultimate softening in the tariffs that would limit the global economic fallout,” said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury.
What forced the about-face?
However, “there are no guarantees with Mr Trump, Mr Ryan said.
On Thursday, a White House official clarified that the US tariffs on China are effectively 145 per cent as the 125 per cent "reciprocal" tariff rate comes on top of the existing 20 per cent tariff related to fentanyl trafficking.
yet it is “incomprehensible that the tariffs would remain in place at such devastatingly high levels”.
The implications are “profound” for the US economy, which would “almost certainly be staring down the barrel of recession”, which is “not exactly a black mark that the 47th president would want tarnishing his legacy”, he said.
Swissquote Bank said that more so than the economy, the actual red line was the sovereign bond markets as US Treasuries faced intense selling pressure over the past few days, which finally forced Mr Trump to take a step back from his tariff strategy.
“He didn’t care about the equity sell-off, he couldn’t care less about the global risk rout, and he was likely pleased to see Chinese assets and crude oil tank. But the fire sale in US Treasuries dialled up the pressure to a point that apparently became unbearable – even for Trump,” Ms Ozkardeskaya said.
Battle lines drawn
Beyond the financial markets, Washington’s push for tariffs has already forced US trading partners to draw the battle lines. Trade and investment priorities are being rehashed, new alliances and partners are being sought and sovereigns as well as corporates are picking and choosing which battles they need to fight and where they must surrender amid the tariff tumult.
There is a 90-day break, but the doubts of another about-face will linger in the investors’ minds. The results of trade skirmishes that have already taken place may not immediately be visible to the world, but they will affect long-term trade as well as investment strategies of sovereigns, corporate and institutional investors, especially those in Europe and broader Asia.
For now, Mr Trump will likely emerge triumphant in most tariff tiffs, simply by virtue of being the president of the world’s largest economy and the most valuable consumer market.
“There is no single consumer market as valuable as that in the US. This monopsony power is what President Trump is attempting to leverage, and it is not simply a case of Asian and European manufacturers finding other export destinations instead of the US,” Hasnain Malik, head of emerging and frontier markets equity strategy at Tellimer, said.
A public game of chicken
While the 90-day pause is a reprieve for most nations, the tariff temperature is rising with every passing day between the US and China, which has been very vocal in its criticism of Mr Trump’s approach to tariffs.
“The US threat to escalate tariffs against China is a mistake on top of a mistake, which once again exposes the US’s blackmailing nature,” China’s Commerce Ministry said on Tuesday. “If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.” The ministry also said there were “no winners in a trade war”.
China raised the stakes on Tuesday when it increased duties on US goods to 84 per cent. Beijing’s head-on approach has clearly touched a nerve in Washington, which is now trying to make an example out of China. “Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the world’s markets, I am hereby raising the tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125 per cent, effective immediately,” Mr Trump said on Wednesday.
China has so far not matched the increase with its own duties on imports from the US. However, it said it would sue the US at the World Trade Organisation and added six firms to its unreliable entity list and 12 US companies to its export control list.
It is ironic that Europeans, who did retaliate to Mr Trump’s tariffs, will still benefit from the 90-day freeze, and that only China will face the consequences, according to Swissquote Bank. “It will be crucial to see how China reacts and whether the two sides are willing to compromise, at least temporarily,” Susan Joho, economist at Julius Baer, said.
Mr Ryan said engaging in the public game of chicken will have consequences for the global economy and world trade as well as the US economy. “Forecasts for the global economy had already undergone downward revisions since Trump’s tariff announcements, and they will no doubt be subject to many more, depending on where the average tariff rate ultimately ends up,” he said.
“While we see Asia as among the most exposed to a tariff-induced growth slowdown, the focus for now is clearly on the impact of the levies on the US economy, which will be hit by the double whammy of not only weaker sentiment, but higher inflation. It will be very interesting to see how the Federal Reserve responds to the stagflationary risks posed by the tariffs.”
The five pillars of Islam
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
STAY%2C%20DAUGHTER
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYasmin%20Azad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESwift%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Profile
Company: Libra Project
Based: Masdar City, ADGM, London and Delaware
Launch year: 2017
Size: A team of 12 with six employed full-time
Sector: Renewable energy
Funding: $500,000 in Series A funding from family and friends in 2018. A Series B round looking to raise $1.5m is now live.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
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%3Cp%3EThe%20influx%20of%20talented%20young%20Afghan%20players%20to%20UAE%20cricket%20could%20have%20a%20big%20impact%20on%20the%20fortunes%20of%20both%20countries.%20Here%20are%20three%20Emirates-based%20players%20to%20watch%20out%20for.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EHassan%20Khan%20Eisakhil%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMohammed%20Nabi%20is%20still%20proving%20his%20worth%20at%20the%20top%20level%20but%20there%20is%20another%20reason%20he%20is%20raging%20against%20the%20idea%20of%20retirement.%20If%20the%20allrounder%20hangs%20on%20a%20little%20bit%20longer%2C%20he%20might%20be%20able%20to%20play%20in%20the%20same%20team%20as%20his%20son%2C%20Hassan%20Khan.%20The%20family%20live%20in%20Ajman%20and%20train%20in%20Sharjah.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMasood%20Gurbaz%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20opening%20batter%2C%20who%20trains%20at%20Sharjah%20Cricket%20Academy%2C%20is%20another%20player%20who%20is%20a%20part%20of%20a%20famous%20family.%20His%20brother%2C%20Rahmanullah%2C%20was%20an%20IPL%20winner%20with%20Kolkata%20Knight%20Riders%2C%20and%20opens%20the%20batting%20with%20distinction%20for%20Afghanistan.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOmid%20Rahman%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20fast%20bowler%20became%20a%20pioneer%20earlier%20this%20year%20when%20he%20became%20the%20first%20Afghan%20to%20represent%20the%20UAE.%20He%20showed%20great%20promise%20in%20doing%20so%2C%20too%2C%20playing%20a%20key%20role%20in%20the%20senior%20team%E2%80%99s%20qualification%20for%20the%20Asia%20Cup%20in%20Muscat%20recently.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 0.8-litre four cylinder
Power: 70bhp
Torque: 66Nm
Transmission: four-speed manual
Price: $1,075 new in 1967, now valued at $40,000
On sale: Models from 1966 to 1970
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The five pillars of Islam
The view from The National
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Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
The%20specs
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
FA Cup fifth round draw
Sheffield Wednesday v Manchester City
Reading/Cardiff City v Sheffield United
Chelsea v Shrewsbury Town/Liverpool
West Bromwich Albion v Newcastle United/Oxford United
Leicester City v Coventry City/Birmingham City
Northampton Town/Derby County v Manchester United
Southampton/Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City
Portsmouth v Arsenal
The years Ramadan fell in May
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
The Bio
Amal likes watching Japanese animation movies and Manga - her favourite is The Ancient Magus Bride
She is the eldest of 11 children, and has four brothers and six sisters.
Her dream is to meet with all of her friends online from around the world who supported her work throughout the years
Her favourite meal is pizza and stuffed vine leaves
She ams to improve her English and learn Japanese, which many animated programmes originate in
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
The five pillars of Islam
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How do Sim card scams work?
Sim swap frauds are a form of identity theft.
They involve criminals conning mobile phone operators into issuing them with replacement Sim cards by claiming to be the victim, often pretending their phone has been lost or stolen in order to secure a new Sim.
They use the victim's personal details - obtained through criminal methods - to convince such companies of their identity.
The criminal can then access any online service that requires security codes to be sent to a user's mobile phone, such as banking services.
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The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The years Ramadan fell in May
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Company%20Profile
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PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Korean Film Festival 2019 line-up
Innocent Witness, June 26 at 7pm
On Your Wedding Day, June 27 at 7pm
The Great Battle, June 27 at 9pm
The Witch: Part 1. The Subversion, June 28 at 4pm
Romang, June 28 at 6pm
Mal Mo E: The Secret Mission, June 28 at 8pm
Underdog, June 29 at 2pm
Nearby Sky, June 29 at 4pm
A Resistance, June 29 at 6pm
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Ukraine 2 (Yaremchuk 06', Yarmolenko 27')
Portugal 1 (Ronaldo 72' pen)
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Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
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