Oil and Asian stocks recoup some losses after tariff-fuelled slump this week

Oil prices climbed on Friday and recorded a slight weekly gain, while global stocks made a partial recovery after a turbulent week driven by fears of a looming US recession and an intensifying global trade war.

Worries about President Donald Trump's tariffs pushed US stocks to multi-month lows this week. Adding to investors’ woes, Mr Trump said in an interview the American economy would see “a period of transition” and refused to rule out a recession.

The S&P 500, which tracks the performance of 500 large-cap US companies, has gone into correction territory, and on Thursday closed 10.13 per cent lower from its February 19 record high, shedding close to $5 trillion.

“The S&P 500 has entered correction territory as the threat of a global trade war escalates, with more tit-for-tat tariffs announced yesterday,” Emirates NBD said in a research note on Friday.

Mr Trump has threatened to impose 200 per cent tariffs on EU alcohol exports to the US, after the bloc said it was planning new duties in retaliation to US tariffs on its steel and aluminium that came into effect on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 537.36 points, or 1.3 per cent, extending its losing streak to a fourth consecutive day and closing at 40,813.57. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.96 per cent, weighed down by declines in Tesla and Apple shares.

Tesla's stock price has plummeted more than 8 per cent so far in the week amid continuing global criticism of owner Elon Musk's support for Mr Trump and some far-right European political groups.

However, Asian stocks and US stocks settled higher on Friday on growing optimism that the US would avert a looming government shutdown.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer announced his support for a Republican funding bill to keep the government open, reversing a pledge to block it along with other Democrats. The bill would fund the government through September.

Japan's Topix settled 0.65 per cent higher at 2,715.85, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed up 0.5 per cent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 2.12 per cent at session's end. India’s BSE Sensex Index fell 0.3 per cent at 12.57pm UAE time.

The S&P 500 index closed up 2.1 per cent, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 2.5 per cent on the last trading day of the week.

Mr Trump's tariff strategy has sparked worries that prices could rise again in the US and economic growth could be impeded. Goldman Sachs this week lowered its 2025 gross domestic product forecast for the US to 1.7 per cent, from 2.4 per cent, quoting tariff uncertainty.

The bank joined a growing number of Wall Street institutions predicting a worsening outlook for the US economy.

“Investors are more focused on rising inflation expectations driven by tariffs than on actual inflation data, as expectations tend to be self-fulfilling,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

Inflation in the world’s largest economy eased last month, with US consumer prices rising at the slowest pace in four months.

The consumer price index rose 0.2 per cent after a sharp 0.5 per cent advance in January, according to Bureau of Labour Statistics data released on Wednesday.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.2 per cent as well.

“Any signs of further heating in inflation expectations may dampen risk appetite and overshadow the early optimism tied to hopes that US politicians will reach a deal to avert a government shutdown,” Ms Ozkardeskaya said.

Oil prices climb

Oil prices climbed on Friday as hopes faded for a rapid resolution to the Ukraine war, which may help bring back Russia energy supplies to the market.

Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s oil, settled 1 per cent higher at $70.58 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, closed up 0.95 per cent at $67.18 a barrel.

Mr Trump said on Thursday that he hopes Russia will accept the proposal for a truce with Ukraine, as he met Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House.

His comments came after Russian President Vladimir Putin said he supported the idea of a 30-day ceasefire but suggested direct talks with Mr Trump to discuss details.

This week, the International Energy Agency lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 830,000 bpd and its estimate for next year by 70,000 bpd to 1.03 million bpd.

“The macroeconomic conditions that underpin our oil demand projections deteriorated over the past month as trade tensions escalated between the US and several other countries,” the agency said in its monthly oil market report.

“New US tariffs, combined with escalating retaliatory measures, tilted macro risks to the downside.”

Gold and crypto

Gold prices surged to record levels on Friday, driven by investor demand for haven assets amid tariff uncertainty and increasing expectations of US Federal Reserve monetary easing.

Spot gold settled 0.11 per cent lower at $2,984.42 an ounce after hitting a session high of $3,004.86, crossing the $3,000 milestone for the first time.

Meanwhile, major cryptocurrencies edged higher on Friday after declining this week.

Bitcoin, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, was up 1.94 per cent at Dh303,374.31 ($82,603), while Ethereum was up 1.51 per cent.

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