The global equities rout this summer is a reminder of how underlying tensions can lead to abrupt episodes in asset repricing, an executive at the International Monetary Fund has said.
Major US indexes have remained formidable this year, riding disinflationary vibes, the beginning of US interest rate cuts and marquee tech earnings. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached record highs last week before closing at 5,864.67 and 43,275.1, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite also ended Friday in the green, joining the two other indexes in clinching six consecutive weeks of gains.
Despite market optimism and interest rate cuts subduing financial market volatility, uncertainty remains twofold, said Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department. Part of this uncertain outlook is due to geopolitical tensions and the rise in global fragmentation.
“We, of course, still have two major conflicts in the world,” said Mr Adrian, referring to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. The increase in trade restrictions has also led to broad fragmentation, he said.
“So, we worry that that kind of underlying tension could give rise to abrupt episodes of repricing if adverse shocks realise – and we saw a little bit of that in early August,” Mr Adrian told The National in an interview during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington on Monday.
A mixture of disappointing US employment data and the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points led to a brief period rocked by market volatility.
Technology-driven markets in Taiwan and South Korea suffered, while markets in the Middle East also slipped. Major US indexes fell as well, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index suffering their biggest losses in almost two years.
While trading since the early-August rout shows the episode was “more like a blip in retrospect”, it demonstrates there is a potential for sharp sell-offs, Mr Adrian said.
Japan's Nikkei index faced its largest single-day increase since 1997, falling 12 per cent after trading stopped three times on August 5. The US volatility index, meanwhile, soared to over 60.
“That is very notable, and it raised this question whether we could see this kind of sharp and, in some ways, non-linear reaction relative to certain shocks,” Mr Adrian said.
“We do worry that we could see a sharp sell off in risk asset markets,” Mr Adrian said. “I think what leaves us a little bit uncomfortable is that it's hard to say, what are the shocks that could be the trigger?”
Elections and economic uncertainty
Mr Adrian said the other side of the uncertainty is the shifting of policies by newly elected governments. This has been a historic voting year, with elections in 50 countries and a projected two billion people heading to the polls.
“That has created already some shifts in policy and may create further shifts in policy, so it's creating a baseline of uncertainty," he said.
Mr Adrian did not specify when asked how the US election – with voting two weeks away – weighs on this, instead pointing to “broader uncertainty”.
“There's a wide range of possible outcomes, and that is certainly playing into financial markets and broader economic expectations and ultimately behaviours,” he said.
“How it's going to play out, I think, is not known at this point. So, what we emphasise is the uncertainty related to the elections.”
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m, Winner: Zalman, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Hisham Al Khalediah II, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash.
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Qader, Adrie de Vries, Jean de Roualle
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship Listed (PA) Dh180,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Mujeeb, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Shanaghai City, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly
8pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 1,400m, Winner: Nayslayer, Bernardo Pinheiro, Jaber Ramadhan
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Biog
Mr Kandhari is legally authorised to conduct marriages in the gurdwara
He has officiated weddings of Sikhs and people of different faiths from Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Russia, the US and Canada
Father of two sons, grandfather of six
Plays golf once a week
Enjoys trying new holiday destinations with his wife and family
Walks for an hour every morning
Completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Loyola College, Chennai, India
2019 is a milestone because he completes 50 years in business
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
The years Ramadan fell in May
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
Stage 2 results
1 Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal 04:18:18
2 Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep 00:00:02
3 Arnaud Demare (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 00:00:04
4 Diego Ulissi (ITA) UAE Team Emirates
5 Rick Zabel (GER) Israel Start-Up Nation
General Classification
1 Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal 07:47:19
2 Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep 00:00:12
3 Arnaud Demare (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 00:00:16
4 Nikolai Cherkasov (RUS) Gazprom-Rusvelo 00:00:17
5 Alexey Lutsensko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team 00:00:19
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RESULTS
Bantamweight title:
Vinicius de Oliveira (BRA) bt Xavier Alaoui (MAR)
(KO round 2)
Catchweight 68kg:
Sean Soriano (USA) bt Noad Lahat (ISR)
(TKO round 1)
Middleweight:
Denis Tiuliulin (RUS) bt Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)
(TKO round 1)
Lightweight:
Anas Siraj Mounir (MAR) bt Joachim Tollefsen (DEN)
(Unanimous decision)
Catchweight 68kg:
Austin Arnett (USA) bt Daniel Vega (MEX)
(TKO round 3)
Lightweight:
Carrington Banks (USA) bt Marcio Andrade (BRA)
(Unanimous decision)
Catchweight 58kg:
Corinne Laframboise (CAN) bt Malin Hermansson (SWE)
(Submission round 2)
Bantamweight:
Jalal Al Daaja (CAN) bt Juares Dea (CMR)
(Split decision)
Middleweight:
Mohamad Osseili (LEB) bt Ivan Slynko (UKR)
(TKO round 1)
Featherweight:
Tarun Grigoryan (ARM) bt Islam Makhamadjanov (UZB)
(Unanimous decision)
Catchweight 54kg:
Mariagiovanna Vai (ITA) bt Daniella Shutov (ISR)
(Submission round 1)
Middleweight:
Joan Arastey (ESP) bt Omran Chaaban (LEB)
(Unanimous decision)
Welterweight:
Bruno Carvalho (POR) bt Souhil Tahiri (ALG)
(TKO)
The years Ramadan fell in May
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.3-litre%204cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E299hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E420Nm%20at%202%2C750rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E12.4L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh157%2C395%20(XLS)%3B%20Dh199%2C395%20(Limited)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
No%20Windmills%20in%20Basra
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Diaa%20Jubaili%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20180%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%20Deep%20Vellum%20Publishing%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.9-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E536hp%20(including%20138hp%20e-motor)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E750Nm%20(including%20400Nm%20e-motor)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1%2C380%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The five pillars of Islam
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CHELSEA SQUAD
Arrizabalaga, Bettinelli, Rudiger, Christensen, Silva, Chalobah, Sarr, Azpilicueta, James, Kenedy, Alonso, Jorginho, Kante, Kovacic, Saul, Barkley, Ziyech, Pulisic, Mount, Hudson-Odoi, Werner, Havertz, Lukaku.
Kill%20
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The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
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The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPyppl%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEstablished%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAntti%20Arponen%20and%20Phil%20Reynolds%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20financial%20services%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2418.5%20million%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEmployees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20150%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20series%20A%2C%20closed%20in%202021%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20venture%20capital%20companies%2C%20international%20funds%2C%20family%20offices%2C%20high-net-worth%20individuals%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
