India's stock markets will continue to come under pressure as investor sentiment sours amid the Israel-Gaza war, elevated US Treasury yields and disappointing second-quarter company earnings, analysts say.
The benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has fallen 3.11 per cent over the past month to 63,782.80. The NSE Nifty 50, which represents India's 50-largest companies listed on the National Stock Exchange, is also down 3.01 per cent to 19,047.25 during the same period.
This is despite both indexes hitting record highs in September.
Although markets on Friday bounced back following six consecutive days of losses, some market analysts are not convinced the rebound can be sustained.
“Despite the strong rebound, we suspect the benchmarks are not out of the woods yet,” says Prashanth Tapse, senior vice president of research at Mehta Equities.
“For markets to remain buoyant, some resolution is needed between the ongoing war.”
Watch: Israeli general says military moving to the next stage of war
The outlook for India's stock markets appears bearish in the short term, says Suman Bannerjee, chief investment officer at hedge fund Hedonova.
“The combination of geopolitical tensions, a strong US dollar and unfavourable second-quarter results suggests that there is a high likelihood of further decline over the next three to four months,” Mr Bannerjee says.
However, global stock markets are experiencing similar falls, including in the US, the UK and Japan, as the Israel-Gaza war continues to rattle investors.
The conflict can potentially cause supply-chain disruptions and push world inflation higher, says Amar Ambani, group president and head of institutional equities at YES Securities India.
“That would mean central bankers holding on to high rates for longer than expected,” Mr Ambani says.
“This was bound to impact markets, which can ill-afford another war when economies are already battling high inflation and interest rates, an ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and a slowing China. The margin of safety on the valuation front is low in the near to medium term for Indian equities.”
Soaring US Treasury yields have also added to the appeal of bonds over equities, says VLA Ambala, a research analyst and co-founder of research platform Stock Market.
The yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries rose to 5 per cent last week – the highest level since 2007 – driven by global economic concerns and expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting that begins on Tuesday.
“There are concerns that the [US] government's persistent borrowing could push the bond yields even higher,” says Ms Ambala.
“This might prompt foreign investors to sell their holdings in emerging sectors in India and flock back to dollar assets to generate high yields.”
But after India's stock markets surged to all-time highs last month, it also means they are poised for a correction, says Swapnil Shah, director of research at broker StoxBox.
“Markets looked overstretched, especially the mid-and small-cap space, where valuations seemed to have run ahead of their earnings visibility,” says Mr Shah.
“We believe that a triple whammy of expensive valuation, firm US bond yields and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has played on the market sentiment.”
Rising US bond yields triggered an exodus of capital from emerging economies, including India, as dollar returns became more favourable, Mr Shah says.
The heightened geopolitical tensions due to the Israel-Gaza conflict have also led to a rise in oil prices, which is negative for an oil-importing country like India, he adds.
Meanwhile, investors are also apprehensive about the falling Indian rupee and outflow of foreign investments, says Prateek Toshniwal, an angel investor and financial adviser.
The rupee has weakened to 83.41 against the strengthening US dollar, while the outflow of foreign funds has added to pressure on banking and IT stocks, in particular, Mr Toshniwal said.
Foreign investors have withdrawn $3.6 billion from India's stock markets since the beginning of September after injecting a net $21.3 billion over the previous six months, according to Bloomberg.
Second-quarter earnings are also worrying investors, with large IT companies, including Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services, warning of weakening demand in the sector and the negative impact it will have on revenue.
The country's IT sector is leading the decline in stock markets. Infosys's share price has fallen 3.79 per cent to 1,381.05 rupees over the past month on the BSE Sensex.
External factors will play a significant role in how Indian equities perform in the near term and the US Fed's monetary policy meeting will be closely watched, Mr Shah says.
“Any expected recovery in markets from hereon would be driven by a softening of US bond yields,” he adds.
“We would closely monitor the US Fed chairman's comments post the meeting scheduled [on Tuesday and Wednesday] to decipher the interest rate environment in the US going forward.”
If the negative sentiment persists, there is a risk that it will impact the appetite for initial public offerings, says Amit Goel, chief global strategist at asset management company Pace360.
“We do expect the IPO momentum to wane over the next few months as the sentiment in the retail segment of the market has particularly turned unfavourable … issuers may expect a lesser participation in their issues leading to postponement or cancellation of some of the planned IPOs,” says Mr Goel.
However, Mr Ambani of YES Securities is not yet concerned about delayed IPOs.
“IPO plans may continue smoothly this year, even if the Nifty was to correct another 800 points from here,” he says.
We would closely monitor the US Fed chairman's comments post the meeting scheduled [on Tuesday and Wednesday] to decipher the interest rate environment in the US going forward
Swapnil Shah,
director of research at StoxBox
“Only if the correction is much larger, I would imagine that many companies will need to defer their listing plans to 2024.”
Although markets are clearly under pressure, he remains upbeat on the longer-term outlook for Indian equities.
“Near-term corrections apart, there is significant comfort from a medium to long-term perspective,” says Mr Ambani.
“Structurally, we are positive on Indian equities. I see the present downtrend as a correction in the long-term uptrend. It is tough to state the level at which the market will stabilise, but it's not odd to see even a 10 to 20 per cent correction in bull markets,” he adds.
“In my view, timewise, this downwards phase should not last for more than two to three months.”
With a general election due to be held in India next year, this could also help markets stage a recovery in the coming months.
On Thursday, JP Morgan upgraded Indian stocks to overweight based on its expectation that the government will spend more ahead of the vote to improve public opinion, which would help to drive consumption and market sentiment.
This is in contrast to research published by Goldman Sachs earlier this month, which warned that global economic headwinds and high valuations mean investors should remain cautious about Indian equities ahead of the polls.
However, Alok Agarwal, portfolio manager at Alchemy Capital Management, believes that India is a "rare large market” that offers double-digit growth in nominal gross domestic product and corporate earnings.
At the same time, the government's finances are relatively strong.
“This confluence of factors is likely to ensure the outperformance of India continues and would possibly limit downsides [of equities],” says Mr Agarwal.
Malcolm & Marie
Directed by: Sam Levinson
Starring: John David Washington and Zendaya
Three stars
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nabil%20Ayouch%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nisrin%20Erradi%2C%20Joud%20Chamihy%2C%20Jalila%20Talemsi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Bio
Favourite place in UAE: Al Rams pearling village
What one book should everyone read: Any book written before electricity was invented. When a writer willingly worked under candlelight, you know he/she had a real passion for their craft
Your favourite type of pearl: All of them. No pearl looks the same and each carries its own unique characteristics, like humans
Best time to swim in the sea: When there is enough light to see beneath the surface
Monday's results
- UAE beat Bahrain by 51 runs
- Qatar beat Maldives by 44 runs
- Saudi Arabia beat Kuwait by seven wickets
The five stages of early child’s play
From Dubai-based clinical psychologist Daniella Salazar:
1. Solitary Play: This is where Infants and toddlers start to play on their own without seeming to notice the people around them. This is the beginning of play.
2. Onlooker play: This occurs where the toddler enjoys watching other people play. There doesn’t necessarily need to be any effort to begin play. They are learning how to imitate behaviours from others. This type of play may also appear in children who are more shy and introverted.
3. Parallel Play: This generally starts when children begin playing side-by-side without any interaction. Even though they aren’t physically interacting they are paying attention to each other. This is the beginning of the desire to be with other children.
4. Associative Play: At around age four or five, children become more interested in each other than in toys and begin to interact more. In this stage children start asking questions and talking about the different activities they are engaging in. They realise they have similar goals in play such as building a tower or playing with cars.
5. Social Play: In this stage children are starting to socialise more. They begin to share ideas and follow certain rules in a game. They slowly learn the definition of teamwork. They get to engage in basic social skills and interests begin to lead social interactions.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
I Care A Lot
Directed by: J Blakeson
Starring: Rosamund Pike, Peter Dinklage
3/5 stars
ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
Results
2.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Mezmar, Adam McLean (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
3pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m; Winner: AF Ajwad, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
3.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Gold Silver, Sam Hitchcott, Ibrahim Aseel.
4pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m; Winner: Atrash, Richard Mullen, Ana Mendez.
4.30pm: Gulf Cup Prestige (PA) Dh150,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Momtaz, Saif Al Balushi, Musabah Al Muhairi.
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Al Mushtashar, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDual%20synchronous%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C108hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C340Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%20(front%20axle)%3B%20two-speed%20transmission%20(rear%20axle)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E488-560km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh928%2C400%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOrders%20open%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amit%20Joshi%20and%20Aradhana%20Sah%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECast%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shahid%20Kapoor%2C%20Kriti%20Sanon%2C%20Dharmendra%2C%20Dimple%20Kapadia%2C%20Rakesh%20Bedi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Smart words at Make Smart Cool
Make Smart Cool is not your usual festival. Dubbed “edutainment” by organisers Najahi Events, Make Smart Cool aims to inspire its youthful target audience through a mix of interactive presentation by social media influencers and a concert finale featuring Example with DJ Wire. Here are some of the speakers sharing their inspiration and experiences on the night.
Prince Ea
With his social media videos accumulating more half a billion views, the American motivational speaker is hot on the college circuit in the US, with talks that focus on the many ways to generate passion and motivation when it comes to learning.
Khalid Al Ameri
The Emirati columnist and presenter is much loved by local youth, with writings and presentations about education, entrepreneurship and family balance. His lectures on career and personal development are sought after by the education and business sector.
Ben Ouattara
Born to an Ivorian father and German mother, the Dubai-based fitness instructor and motivational speaker is all about conquering fears and insecurities. His talk focuses on the need to gain emotional and physical fitness when facing life’s challenges. As well managing his film production company, Ouattara is one of the official ambassadors of Dubai Expo2020.
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More from Neighbourhood Watch
What is dialysis?
Dialysis is a way of cleaning your blood when your kidneys fail and can no longer do the job.
It gets rid of your body's wastes, extra salt and water, and helps to control your blood pressure. The main cause of kidney failure is diabetes and hypertension.
There are two kinds of dialysis — haemodialysis and peritoneal.
In haemodialysis, blood is pumped out of your body to an artificial kidney machine that filter your blood and returns it to your body by tubes.
In peritoneal dialysis, the inside lining of your own belly acts as a natural filter. Wastes are taken out by means of a cleansing fluid which is washed in and out of your belly in cycles.
It isn’t an option for everyone but if eligible, can be done at home by the patient or caregiver. This, as opposed to home haemodialysis, is covered by insurance in the UAE.
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What it means to be a conservationist
Who is Enric Sala?
Enric Sala is an expert on marine conservation and is currently the National Geographic Society's Explorer-in-Residence. His love of the sea started with his childhood in Spain, inspired by the example of the legendary diver Jacques Cousteau. He has been a university professor of Oceanography in the US, as well as working at the Spanish National Council for Scientific Research and is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Biodiversity and the Bio-Economy. He has dedicated his life to protecting life in the oceans. Enric describes himself as a flexitarian who only eats meat occasionally.
What is biodiversity?
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, all life on earth – including in its forests and oceans – forms a “rich tapestry of interconnecting and interdependent forces”. Biodiversity on earth today is the product of four billion years of evolution and consists of many millions of distinct biological species. The term ‘biodiversity’ is relatively new, popularised since the 1980s and coinciding with an understanding of the growing threats to the natural world including habitat loss, pollution and climate change. The loss of biodiversity itself is dangerous because it contributes to clean, consistent water flows, food security, protection from floods and storms and a stable climate. The natural world can be an ally in combating global climate change but to do so it must be protected. Nations are working to achieve this, including setting targets to be reached by 2020 for the protection of the natural state of 17 per cent of the land and 10 per cent of the oceans. However, these are well short of what is needed, according to experts, with half the land needed to be in a natural state to help avert disaster.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
HAJJAN
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VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
