A resilient US economy and expectations of a nearing peak in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening cycle are emboldening stock investors, even as worries persist over rising valuations and the potential for inflation to rebound.
The S&P 500 is up nearly 19 per cent this year after gaining around 1 per cent in the past week. It has risen nearly 10 percentage points since June 1, over which time the US government avoided a debt ceiling default and consumer prices cooled, while growth stayed resilient.
One key factor driving stocks higher has been the view that the economy is moving towards a so-called Goldilocks scenario of ebbing consumer prices and strong growth that many believe is a healthy backdrop for stocks.
That view gained further traction in the past week, when chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank's staff no longer forecasts a US recession and that inflation had a shot of returning to its 2 per cent target without high levels of job losses.
Policymakers raised rates by another 25 basis points to their highest level since 2007 at the central bank's July 26 meeting and left the door open to another increase in September.
“The market has fully accepted the narrative that it wanted, which is Goldilocks. Until we see some set of data that scares them, it's hard to see how that changes,” said Bob Kalman, senior portfolio manager at Miramar Capital.
At the same time, investors believe the Fed is unlikely to deliver much more of the monetary policy tightening that shook markets last year.
Futures markets on Friday priced a nearly 73 per cent chance that rates do not rise above current levels through the end of the year, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, up from 24 per cent a month ago.
A test of the economy comes this week, when the US reports employment numbers for July.
While comparatively strong employment data has been a driver of this year’s stock rally, signs that the economy is growing at too rapid a pace could lead to worries that the Fed will need to raise rates more than expected.
“For markets to continue to trade higher, the soft landing must be a soft landing, not a reacceleration, because if housing and consumer spending accelerate from here, the Fed will have to raise rates a lot more,” wrote Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.
Mr Kalman, of Miramar Capital, believes there is a growing chance the Fed may need to raise rates beyond their current 5.50 per cent threshold and hold them there for longer than expected, an outcome he worries could dampen the economy and hurt risk assets.
“It's a 50-50 chance that we'll get Goldilocks or we'll get a stronger downturn,” he said.
Many are also assessing the durability of a rally in tech stocks, which has been fuelled in part by excitement over developments in artificial intelligence.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up nearly 44 per cent year-to-date, while the S&P 500 information technology sector has gained nearly 46 per cent.
Optimistic forecasts from Meta Platforms and results from Alphabet earlier last week bolstered the case for those who believe megacaps’ lofty valuations are justified.
Some smaller companies have delivered as well, with shares of streaming device maker Roku soaring on Friday after it gave an upbeat quarterly revenue forecast.
Still, some investors have been looking outside of tech stocks for further gains, wary of rising valuations.
The S&P 500 tech sector now trades at 28.2 times forward earnings, from 19.6 at the start of the year.
Burns McKinney, senior portfolio manager at NJF Investment Group, owns shares of Apple and Microsoft but has been adding to dividend-paying positions in health care, financials and energy in anticipation that megacap names start to falter.
It's a 50-50 chance that we'll get Goldilocks or we'll get a stronger downturn
Bob Kalman,
senior portfolio manager, Miramar Capital
For megacap stocks, “the risk-reward is not as good as it was a quarter ago”, he said.
Others believe the rally in equities is ready for a pause.
Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives for the Schwab Centre for Financial Research, said he would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 fall 5 per cent or more in the next month or two as investors take profits on recent gains.
Yet he also believes stocks are in the “early stages” of their recovery after falling into a bear market last year.
“There’s always a concern with too much optimism, but longer term a sort of consolidation here speaks to a positive market going out,” he said.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company profile
Company: Rent Your Wardrobe
Date started: May 2021
Founder: Mamta Arora
Based: Dubai
Sector: Clothes rental subscription
Stage: Bootstrapped, self-funded
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FA Cup semi-finals
Saturday: Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur, 8.15pm (UAE)
Sunday: Chelsea v Southampton, 6pm (UAE)
Matches on Bein Sports
Company Profile
Company name: Yeepeey
Started: Soft launch in November, 2020
Founders: Sagar Chandiramani, Jatin Sharma and Monish Chandiramani
Based: Dubai
Industry: E-grocery
Initial investment: $150,000
Future plan: Raise $1.5m and enter Saudi Arabia next year
Day 2, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Pakistan’s effort in the field had hints of shambles about it. The wheels were officially off when Wahab Riaz lost his run up and aborted the delivery four times in a row. He re-measured his run, jogged in for two practice goes. Then, when he was finally ready to go, he bailed out again. It was a total cringefest.
Stat of the day – 139.5 Yasir Shah has bowled 139.5 overs in three innings so far in this Test series. Judged by his returns, the workload has not withered him. He has 14 wickets so far, and became history’s first spinner to take five-wickets in an innings in five consecutive Tests. Not bad for someone whose fitness was in question before the series.
The verdict Stranger things have happened, but it is going to take something extraordinary for Pakistan to keep their undefeated record in Test series in the UAE in tact from this position. At least Shan Masood and Sami Aslam have made a positive start to the salvage effort.
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Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
How being social media savvy can improve your well being
Next time when procastinating online remember that you can save thousands on paying for a personal trainer and a gym membership simply by watching YouTube videos and keeping up with the latest health tips and trends.
As social media apps are becoming more and more consumed by health experts and nutritionists who are using it to awareness and encourage patients to engage in physical activity.
Elizabeth Watson, a personal trainer from Stay Fit gym in Abu Dhabi suggests that “individuals can use social media as a means of keeping fit, there are a lot of great exercises you can do and train from experts at home just by watching videos on YouTube”.
Norlyn Torrena, a clinical nutritionist from Burjeel Hospital advises her clients to be more technologically active “most of my clients are so engaged with their phones that I advise them to download applications that offer health related services”.
Torrena said that “most people believe that dieting and keeping fit is boring”.
However, by using social media apps keeping fit means that people are “modern and are kept up to date with the latest heath tips and trends”.
“It can be a guide to a healthy lifestyle and exercise if used in the correct way, so I really encourage my clients to download health applications” said Mrs Torrena.
People can also connect with each other and exchange “tips and notes, it’s extremely healthy and fun”.
The specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo and dual electric motors
Power: 300hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 520Nm at 1,500-3,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.0L/100km
Price: from Dh199,900
On sale: now
Francesco Totti's bio
Born September 27, 1976
Position Attacking midifelder
Clubs played for (1) - Roma
Total seasons 24
First season 1992/93
Last season 2016/17
Appearances 786
Goals 307
Titles (5) - Serie A 1; Italian Cup 2; Italian Supercup 2
Attacks on Egypt’s long rooted Copts
Egypt’s Copts belong to one of the world’s oldest Christian communities, with Mark the Evangelist credited with founding their church around 300 AD. Orthodox Christians account for the overwhelming majority of Christians in Egypt, with the rest mainly made up of Greek Orthodox, Catholics and Anglicans.
The community accounts for some 10 per cent of Egypt’s 100 million people, with the largest concentrations of Christians found in Cairo, Alexandria and the provinces of Minya and Assiut south of Cairo.
Egypt’s Christians have had a somewhat turbulent history in the Muslim majority Arab nation, with the community occasionally suffering outright persecution but generally living in peace with their Muslim compatriots. But radical Muslims who have first emerged in the 1970s have whipped up anti-Christian sentiments, something that has, in turn, led to an upsurge in attacks against their places of worship, church-linked facilities as well as their businesses and homes.
More recently, ISIS has vowed to go after the Christians, claiming responsibility for a series of attacks against churches packed with worshippers starting December 2016.
The discrimination many Christians complain about and the shift towards religious conservatism by many Egyptian Muslims over the last 50 years have forced hundreds of thousands of Christians to migrate, starting new lives in growing communities in places as far afield as Australia, Canada and the United States.
Here is a look at major attacks against Egypt's Coptic Christians in recent years:
November 2: Masked gunmen riding pickup trucks opened fire on three buses carrying pilgrims to the remote desert monastery of St. Samuel the Confessor south of Cairo, killing 7 and wounding about 20. IS claimed responsibility for the attack.
May 26, 2017: Masked militants riding in three all-terrain cars open fire on a bus carrying pilgrims on their way to the Monastery of St. Samuel the Confessor, killing 29 and wounding 22. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.
April 2017: Twin attacks by suicide bombers hit churches in the coastal city of Alexandria and the Nile Delta city of Tanta. At least 43 people are killed and scores of worshippers injured in the Palm Sunday attack, which narrowly missed a ceremony presided over by Pope Tawadros II, spiritual leader of Egypt Orthodox Copts, in Alexandria's St. Mark's Cathedral. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks.
February 2017: Hundreds of Egyptian Christians flee their homes in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula, fearing attacks by ISIS. The group's North Sinai affiliate had killed at least seven Coptic Christians in the restive peninsula in less than a month.
December 2016: A bombing at a chapel adjacent to Egypt's main Coptic Christian cathedral in Cairo kills 30 people and wounds dozens during Sunday Mass in one of the deadliest attacks carried out against the religious minority in recent memory. ISIS claimed responsibility.
July 2016: Pope Tawadros II says that since 2013 there were 37 sectarian attacks on Christians in Egypt, nearly one incident a month. A Muslim mob stabs to death a 27-year-old Coptic Christian man, Fam Khalaf, in the central city of Minya over a personal feud.
May 2016: A Muslim mob ransacks and torches seven Christian homes in Minya after rumours spread that a Christian man had an affair with a Muslim woman. The elderly mother of the Christian man was stripped naked and dragged through a street by the mob.
New Year's Eve 2011: A bomb explodes in a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria as worshippers leave after a midnight mass, killing more than 20 people.
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Who is Mohammed Al Halbousi?
The new speaker of Iraq’s parliament Mohammed Al Halbousi is the youngest person ever to serve in the role.
The 37-year-old was born in Al Garmah in Anbar and studied civil engineering in Baghdad before going into business. His development company Al Hadeed undertook reconstruction contracts rebuilding parts of Fallujah’s infrastructure.
He entered parliament in 2014 and served as a member of the human rights and finance committees until 2017. In August last year he was appointed governor of Anbar, a role in which he has struggled to secure funding to provide services in the war-damaged province and to secure the withdrawal of Shia militias. He relinquished the post when he was sworn in as a member of parliament on September 3.
He is a member of the Al Hal Sunni-based political party and the Sunni-led Coalition of Iraqi Forces, which is Iraq’s largest Sunni alliance with 37 seats from the May 12 election.
He maintains good relations with former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coaliton, Hadi Al Amiri’s Badr Organisation and Iranian officials.
HOW TO WATCH
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The language of diplomacy in 1853
Treaty of Peace in Perpetuity Agreed Upon by the Chiefs of the Arabian Coast on Behalf of Themselves, Their Heirs and Successors Under the Mediation of the Resident of the Persian Gulf, 1853
(This treaty gave the region the name “Trucial States”.)
We, whose seals are hereunto affixed, Sheikh Sultan bin Suggar, Chief of Rassool-Kheimah, Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon, Chief of Aboo Dhebbee, Sheikh Saeed bin Buyte, Chief of Debay, Sheikh Hamid bin Rashed, Chief of Ejman, Sheikh Abdoola bin Rashed, Chief of Umm-ool-Keiweyn, having experienced for a series of years the benefits and advantages resulting from a maritime truce contracted amongst ourselves under the mediation of the Resident in the Persian Gulf and renewed from time to time up to the present period, and being fully impressed, therefore, with a sense of evil consequence formerly arising, from the prosecution of our feuds at sea, whereby our subjects and dependants were prevented from carrying on the pearl fishery in security, and were exposed to interruption and molestation when passing on their lawful occasions, accordingly, we, as aforesaid have determined, for ourselves, our heirs and successors, to conclude together a lasting and inviolable peace from this time forth in perpetuity.
Taken from Britain and Saudi Arabia, 1925-1939: the Imperial Oasis, by Clive Leatherdale
Liverpool's all-time goalscorers
Ian Rush 346
Roger Hunt 285
Mohamed Salah 250
Gordon Hodgson 241
Billy Liddell 228
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
MATCH INFO
Alaves 1 (Perez 65' pen)
Real Madrid 2 (Ramos 52', Carvajal 69')
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
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ACC 2019: The winners in full
Best Actress Maha Alemi, Sofia
Best Actor Mohamed Dhrif, Weldi
Best Screenplay Meryem Benm’Barek, Sofia
Best Documentary Of Fathers and Sons by Talal Derki
Best Film Yomeddine by Abu Bakr Shawky
Best Director Nadine Labaki, Capernaum
World Cup League Two
Results
Oman beat Nepal by 18 runs
Oman beat United States by six wickets
Nepal beat United States by 35 runs
Oman beat Nepal by eight wickets
Fixtures
Tuesday, Oman v United States
Wednesday, Nepal v United States
