It made sense at the time. Jerome Powell was waging war on inflation. The bond market was making dire warnings, and practically everyone saw a recession coming.
And yet fewer than 20 months after it began, the bear market that engulfed the S&P 500 is 260 points from being completely erased. Rather than foretelling trouble, chart patterns tracking everything from cross-asset momentum to transport companies are painting a picture of economic vigour.
That some signals coming from the US economy are nowhere near as buoyant – and that Federal Reserve policymakers sound only marginally less worried about inflation now than they did then – is but a nuisance for investors who just pushed stocks up for the eighth time in 10 weeks.
Should the optimism persist, last year’s bear market has a shot at being unwound faster than all but three of its predecessors since the Second World War.
“I’m shocked that the Fed has really pulled off the soft landing and everybody is caught underweight in equity exposure,” said Dennis Davitt, co-manager of the MDP Low Volatility Fund, who recently adjusted its positions to prepare for more market upside.
“As people have to get right size on their portfolio, they’re going to have to come in and buy, and every day gets harder.”
Almost $10 trillion has been restored to equity values in the past nine months as job growth, consumer spending and corporate earnings defied doomsayers.
Up 27 per cent from its October trough, the S&P 500 is now about 5 per cent away from reclaiming its all-time high of 4,796.56 reached in January 2022.
If the index completes a round trip by September, it will make a full recovery twice as fast as the average of the previous 12 cycles, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.
What started as a rally driven almost entirely by a handful of technology megacaps has become a cross-sector surge fuelled by fading recession fears. From small-caps to energy and banks, economically sensitive shares are driving the latest leg up.
While sceptics keep pointing to one widely watched recession indicator – the inverted yield curve in Treasuries – as a warning that the economy is not out of woods, the equity market is telling a different story.
The latest evidence comes from synchronised breakouts in transports and industrial stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed for 10 days in a row, the longest winning streak in six years, while a similar measure tracking airline, railway and road transport companies rose for four weeks in a row. In the process, both hit their highest levels since early last year.
According to adherents of a century-old charting technique called the Dow Theory that posits both groups are harbingers of future economic growth, simultaneous strength is a bullish sign.
“Momentum does have a habit of feeding on itself,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive of Marketfield Asset Management. “Where we feel a little more comfortable is the broadening of the rally to cover most economically sensitive sectors.”
Equities are not the only asset ignoring the alarm from the yield curve. Oil has bounced back after a first-half slump, climbing back above $75 a barrel, while credit spreads slipped to a four-month low.
Whatever scary scenarios investors had in mind going into 2023, few have panned out so far. While regional lenders did fail, the government rushed to ring-fence the fallout and now financial results from big banks are largely exceeding expectations. The KBW Bank Index jumped more than 6 per cent for the best week in 14 months.
The fundamental resilience is forcing economists to rethink their recession calls while prompting Wall Street strategists to raise their year-end price targets for the S&P 500.
Reluctantly or not, bears are giving in, one by one. Computer-driven funds, which went short on stocks after the 2022 sell-off, were among the first to capitulate.
From trend followers to volatility-focused funds, systematic managers snapped up a total of $280 billion of global shares in the first half alone, according to an estimate from Morgan Stanley’s sales and trading desk. This week, their net equity leverage, a measure of risk appetite, hit the highest level since early 2020.
Just when you think things can’t go wrong for the stock market, you get years like 2022. Complacency kills
Paul Hickey,
co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group
After some initial resistance, stock-picking investors began to trim their short positions and add longs. Leverage at hedge funds tracked by Morgan Stanley’s prime brokerage unit last week rose past 50 per cent for the first time since February 2022.
“It’s a momentum-driven market. It’s difficult to call when this will stop,” said Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer of Rockefeller Global Family Office. “But it feels a little bit frothy. I still think fundamentally, at least when I look at the numbers, there are some risks.”
Mr Chang is not alone with a persistent sense of trepidation. In the latest Bank of America survey of money managers, cash holdings rose to 5.3 per cent from 5.1 per cent. Meanwhile, demand for protection prompted an offering of a new exchange-traded fund that seeks to hedge against 100 per cent of stock losses over a two-year period.
Indeed, the list of worries is long. Valuations are stretched. Inflation could be sticky and the Fed may keep interest rates higher for longer. While perhaps delayed, the threat of a recession is still lingering. And bankruptcy filings are piling up.
“Markets climb a wall of worry, and sometimes, the more issues that investors are worried about, the better the forward returns,” said Paul Hickey, a co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group.
“Conversely, just when you think things can’t go wrong for the stock market, you get years like 2022. Complacency kills.”
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Abu Dhabi Card
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 1,400m
National selection: AF Mohanak
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 90,000 1,400m
National selection: Jayide Al Boraq
6pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 100,000 1,400m
National selection: Rocket Power
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship Listed (PA) Dh 180,000 1,600m
National selection: Ihtesham
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 1,600m
National selection: Noof KB
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 2.200m
National selection: EL Faust
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight ChampionshipAJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Chris Jericho
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v tba
Results
57kg quarter-finals
Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Hamed Al Matari (YEM) by points 3-0.
60kg quarter-finals
Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) beat Hyan Aljmyah (SYR) RSC round 2.
63.5kg quarter-finals
Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Shamlan A Othman (KUW) by points 3-0.
67kg quarter-finals
Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Ahmad Ondash (LBN) by points 2-1.
71kg quarter-finals
Ahmad Bahman (UAE) defeated Lalthasanga Lelhchhun (IND) by points 3-0.
Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Seyed Kaveh Safakhaneh (IRI) by points 3-0.
81kg quarter-finals
Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Ahmad Hilal (PLE) by points 3-0
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPurpl%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKarl%20Naim%2C%20Wissam%20Ghorra%2C%20Jean-Marie%20Khoueir%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHub71%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi%20and%20Beirut%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2021%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E12%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%242%20million%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Ain Issa camp:
- Established in 2016
- Houses 13,309 people, 2,092 families, 62 per cent children
- Of the adult population, 49 per cent men, 51 per cent women (not including foreigners annexe)
- Most from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa
- 950 foreigners linked to ISIS and their families
- NGO Blumont runs camp management for the UN
- One of the nine official (UN recognised) camps in the region
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Scores
Day 2
New Zealand 153 & 56-1
Pakistan 227
New Zealand trail by 18 runs with nine wickets remaining
Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
Moonfall
Director: Rolan Emmerich
Stars: Patrick Wilson, Halle Berry
Rating: 3/5
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Mission to Seafarers is one of the largest port-based welfare operators in the world.
It provided services to around 200 ports across 50 countries.
They also provide port chaplains to help them deliver professional welfare services.
Crazy Rich Asians
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Constance Wu, Henry Golding, Michelle Yeon, Gemma Chan
Four stars
'Avengers: Infinity War'
Dir: The Russo Brothers
Starring: Chris Evans, Chris Pratt, Tom Holland, Robert Downey Junior, Scarlett Johansson, Elizabeth Olsen
Four stars
Islamic%20Architecture%3A%20A%20World%20History
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eric%20Broug%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Thames%20%26amp%3B%20Hudson%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20336%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20September%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinFlx%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202021%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amr%20Yussif%20(co-founder%20and%20CEO)%2C%20Mattieu%20Capelle%20(co-founder%20and%20CTO)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%20in%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241.5m%20pre-seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Venture%20capital%20-%20Y%20Combinator%2C%20500%20Global%2C%20Dubai%20Future%20District%20Fund%2C%20Fox%20Ventures%2C%20Vector%20Fintech.%20Also%20a%20number%20of%20angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ICC Awards for 2021
MEN
Cricketer of the Year – Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Mohammad Rizwan (Pakistan)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Babar Azam (Pakistan)
Test Cricketer of the Year – Joe Root (England)
WOMEN
Cricketer of the Year – Smriti Mandhana (India)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Lizelle Lee (South Africa)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Tammy Beaumont (England)
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E680hp%20at%206%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800Nm%20at%202%2C750-6%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERear-mounted%20eight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E13.6L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Orderbook%20open%3B%20deliveries%20start%20end%20of%20year%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh970%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
