The long-awaited broadening in the 2023 equity advance is bringing gains to corners of the market even unabashed bulls may view uneasily.
Boats seaworthy and otherwise are being lifted by the rising tide in stocks, itself part of a cross-asset “everything rally” last week that was the biggest in three years.
Gains spread, with banks and commodity producers in the ascendant. And there were flimsier propositions: Meme stocks had their best week since January, while unprofitable tech companies rose 11 per cent.
“I don’t know the staying power of the ‘junk rally’, because it’s more sentiment driven – it’s not fundamental driven,” said Abby Yoder, US equity strategist at JP Morgan Private Bank. “Regardless of whether you’re in the camp of us going into a recession or a camp of a soft landing, the reality is that growth is probably slowing.”
For bulls who have been calling for the unseating of the artificial-intelligence oligarchy that has ruled markets since December, it s a case of be careful what you wish for, at least going by the cyclical playbook that has prevailed since the pandemic.
The market gets a lift, sceptics buy in – then speculative fever breaks out in time for gains to fizzle.
Whether the pattern is repeating, this was a week of nearly unprecedented buoyancy across asset classes.
Among five major exchange-traded funds tracking stocks, Treasuries, corporate bonds and commodities, each was up more than 1.7 per cent. In data going back almost a decade, only once was there a bigger concerted rally: March 2020.
And while that particular echo may stoke bulls, a lot has changed between now and then in terms of policy and valuation.
Back when the pandemic was raging, the Federal Reserve rushed to lower interest rates and the government doled out trillions of stimulus checks to Americans. The S&P 500 was valued at roughly 14 times earnings, while 10-year Treasury yield stood below 1 per cent.
Now, the central bank is in the midst of the most aggressive monetary tightening in decades, the 10-year rate has risen to 3.8 per cent, and the S&P 500’s price-earnings ratio hovers near 20.
On the other hand, the prospect of a soft landing has improved, with inflation cooling and economic growth holding up. And the Fed may stop increasing interest rates after another later this month.
Weakening prices, in particular, are driving the synchronised gains across assets, according to Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments.
“Inflation is the scourge of investors: It harms bonds, of course, but also equities, as it erodes profit margins and destroys wealth over time for everyone,” he said. “We are not out of the woods, although good news is good news, and markets are reflecting that.”
The possible end to monetary tightening jump-started a broad risk-on move in the currency market, with traders seeking higher returns in everything from the euro to Mexico peso.
The US dollar, a long-favoured haven, sank the most since November, losing more than 2 per cent of its value over five sessions.
In stocks, fringe corners are springing back to life.
A Goldman Sachs Group basket of unprofitable technology companies had its best week since January. Newly-minted shares jumped as the Renaissance IPO ETF climbed almost 7 per cent on the week.
Retail investors, who were burnt by 2022’s bear market, are staging a comeback. The Solactive Roundhill Meme Stock Index, tracking the crowd’s favourite shares, rallied about 8 per cent this week, led by crypto-related stocks.
Day traders scooped up a net $2.8 billion of shares in the week through Tuesday, an amount that’s way above its 12-month average, according to JP Morgan Chase estimates derived from public data on exchanges.
Elsewhere, money managers are cutting their short positions while moving cash to stocks.
I don’t know the staying power of the ‘junk rally,’ because it’s more sentiment driven – it’s not fundamental driven
Abby Yoder,
US equity strategist, JPMorgan Private Bank
An index tracking investors’ equity positioning has spiked from depressed levels at the start of the year, reaching readings higher than 68 per cent of the time since 2010, according to data from Deutsche Bank.
As much as the buying urge has propelled stocks, it may sow the seed for troubles.
If there is a lesson to be learnt from 2023’s rally, it is that paranoia is the best thing bulls can hope for because that sets the stage for a market rebound.
With gaming spirits raging back, it’s a contrarian sign to be cautious, said Jake Schurmeier, portfolio manager at Harbor Capital Advisors.
“Sentiment has clearly swung towards the positive extreme,” he said. “It certainly caught me off guard. I think 1999-2000 may be a better parallel in terms of how it ends.”
As You Were
Liam Gallagher
(Warner Bros)
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Match info:
Manchester City 2
Sterling (8'), Walker (52')
Newcastle United 1
Yedlin (30')
Abandon
Sangeeta Bandyopadhyay
Translated by Arunava Sinha
Tilted Axis Press
Ready Player One
Dir: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Tye Sheridan, Olivia Cooke, Ben Mendelsohn, Mark Rylance
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
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Scores
Wales 74-24 Tonga
England 35-15 Japan
Italy 7-26 Australia
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PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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The Limehouse Golem
Director: Juan Carlos Medina
Cast: Olivia Cooke, Bill Nighy, Douglas Booth
Three stars
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Jurassic%20Park
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More from Aya Iskandarani
Like a Fading Shadow
Antonio Muñoz Molina
Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez
Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)
The%20specs
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UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
The years Ramadan fell in May
Race 3
Produced: Salman Khan Films and Tips Films
Director: Remo D’Souza
Cast: Salman Khan, Anil Kapoor, Jacqueline Fernandez, Bobby Deol, Daisy Shah, Saqib Salem
Rating: 2.5 stars
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
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BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
2017%20RESULTS%3A%20FRENCH%20VOTERS%20IN%20UK
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua Based: Dubai, UAE Number of employees: 28 Sector: Financial services Investment: $9.5m Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors. 
