A US stocks rally is cruising into a month that has proven strong in recent years, though equities must navigate employment data and an earnings season that could be precarious, with the Federal Reserve bent on raising US interest rates.
The S&P 500 defied recession fears and a US banking crisis to notch a 15.9 per cent gain in the first half. The Nasdaq Composite powered ahead 31.7 per cent for its biggest first-half increase in four decades.
Investors betting the upward trend will continue over the next few weeks have recent history on their side. The S&P 500 has posted a positive return in eight consecutive Julys, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index has climbed in July for 15 straight years.
“We have had a pretty resilient market in the first half of this year,” said Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.
“The market needs one big question answered, and that is what does the economy look like in the back half of the year.”
Several indicators show growing optimism about equities. Positive sentiment in the American Association of Individual Investors survey has come in above its historical average for four straight weeks, while positioning measures tracked by banks have shown investors recently increasing their exposure to stocks.
The Cboe Volatility Index, which measures investor demand for protection against stock swings, recently hit its lowest level since early 2020.
At the same time, July brings its share of potentially market-moving events. First up is next Friday’s US employment report, which will give investors a snapshot of how the economy is faring after 500 basis points of rate hikes from the Fed since last year, its most aggressive tightening in decades.
Signs of continued solid job growth could reinforce a view that has helped boost markets this year – that the US economy can avoid a severe recession despite the Fed’s tightening.
“The labour market is probably going to end up proving to be the big catalyst for what may happen market-wise and also monetary policy wise,” said Omar Aguilar, chief executive and chief investment officer of Schwab Asset Management.
Second-quarter corporate results will kick off the following week. S&P 500 companies are expected to post an overall drop in earnings of 5.7 per cent from the year-earlier period, according to Refinitiv.
Investors will focus on results from seven tech and other megacap companies, including Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia, whose outsized gains have driven the S&P 500's rise this year.
“To the degree the Magnificent Seven has been carrying this, those are the multiples most likely to get hit with any sort of warning, any sort of negative announcement,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer of Comerica Wealth Management.
The consumer price index report arrives on July 12, a crucial read on inflation before the Fed's July 26 policy decision. The US central bank held rates steady in June and has signalled two more increases are coming this year, including one widely expected in July.
While stocks have so far taken policymakers’ projections of higher rates in stride, that could change if bond yields continue to rise. Benchmark yields recently hit three-month highs, with the 10-year US Treasury yield last around 3.8 per cent, well over double where it stood at the end of 2021.
The labour market is probably going to end up proving to be the big catalyst for what may happen market-wise and also monetary policy wise
Omar Aguilar,
chief executive and chief investment officer of Schwab Asset Management
Rising yields generally dull the allure of stocks compared to bonds, but in recent months equity valuations have still climbed.
The S&P 500 is trading at 19.1 times forward earnings estimates, well above its historic average price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.
“At some point, this move in interest rates has got to have some consequences for the markets,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said in a note on Friday.
Some doubt the rally's staying power. A Deutsche Bank survey found more than three-quarters of investors believe the next 10 per cent move in the S&P 500 will be down, compared to 24 per cent who projected that in March.
Those doubts could stem from concern about economic fallout from rate hikes.
Analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management said in a recent note the likelihood of a recession hinges most on monetary policy becoming more restrictive, an eventuality stocks are not priced for.
“With stocks already priced for the near perfection of a soft landing, we see better risk-reward in high-quality bonds over equities,” the UBS analysts wrote.
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The specs: Rolls-Royce Cullinan
Price, base: Dh1 million (estimate)
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbo V12
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 563hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque: 850Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 15L / 100km
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Need to know
When: October 17 until November 10
Cost: Entry is free but some events require prior registration
Where: Various locations including National Theatre (Abu Dhabi), Abu Dhabi Cultural Center, Zayed University Promenade, Beach Rotana (Abu Dhabi), Vox Cinemas at Yas Mall, Sharjah Youth Center
What: The Korea Festival will feature art exhibitions, a B-boy dance show, a mini K-pop concert, traditional dance and music performances, food tastings, a beauty seminar, and more.
For more information: www.koreafestivaluae.com
WTL%20SCHEDULE
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India squads
T20: Rohit Sharma (c), Shikhar Dhawan, KL Rahul, Sanju Samson, Shreyas Iyer, Manish Pandey, Rishabh Pant, Washington Sundar, Krunal Pandya, Yuzvendra Chahal, Rahul Chahar, Deepak Chahar, Khaleel Ahmed, Shivam Dube, Shardul Thakur
Test: Virat Kohli (c), Rohit Sharma, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane, Hanuma Vihari, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Ravichandran Ashwin, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Umesh Yadav, Ishant Sharma, Shubman Gill, Rishabh Pant
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RESULTS
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Scores
Bournemouth 0-4 Liverpool
Arsenal 1-0 Huddersfield Town
Burnley 1-0 Brighton
Manchester United 4-1 Fulham
West Ham 3-2 Crystal Palace
Saturday fixtures:
Chelsea v Manchester City, 9.30pm (UAE)
Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur, 11.45pm (UAE)
INFO
What: DP World Tour Championship
When: November 21-24
Where: Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae.
Brief scores:
Everton 2
Walcott 21', Sigurdsson 51'
Tottenham 6
Son 27', 61', Alli 35', Kane 42', 74', Eriksen 48'
Man of the Match: Son Heung-min (Tottenham Hotspur)
MATCH INFO
West Ham United 2 (Antonio 73', Ogbonna 90 5')
Tottenham Hotspur 3 (Son 36', Moura 42', Kane 49')
How to come clean about financial infidelity
- Be honest and transparent: It is always better to own up than be found out. Tell your partner everything they want to know. Show remorse. Inform them of the extent of the situation so they know what they are dealing with.
- Work on yourself: Be honest with yourself and your partner and figure out why you did it. Don’t be ashamed to ask for professional help.
- Give it time: Like any breach of trust, it requires time to rebuild. So be consistent, communicate often and be patient with your partner and yourself.
- Discuss your financial situation regularly: Ensure your spouse is involved in financial matters and decisions. Your ability to consistently follow through with what you say you are going to do when it comes to money can make all the difference in your partner’s willingness to trust you again.
- Work on a plan to resolve the problem together: If there is a lot of debt, for example, create a budget and financial plan together and ensure your partner is fully informed, involved and supported.
Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
WORLD CUP SEMI-FINALS
England v New Zealand
(Saturday, 12pm UAE)
Wales v South Africa
(Sunday, 12pm, UAE)
Zayed Sustainability Prize
RESULT
Manchester United 2 Burnley 2
Man United: Lingard (53', 90' 1)
Burnley: Barnes (3'), Defour (36')
Man of the Match: Jesse Lingard (Manchester United)
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About Proto21
Date started: May 2018
Founder: Pir Arkam
Based: Dubai
Sector: Additive manufacturing (aka, 3D printing)
Staff: 18
Funding: Invested, supported and partnered by Joseph Group
Dubai World Cup Carnival card
6.30pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) US$100,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (Turf) 1,000m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m
8.15pm: Meydan Challenge Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
8.50pm: Dubai Stakes Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
9.25pm: Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m
The National selections
6.30pm: Final Song
7.05pm: Pocket Dynamo
7.40pm: Dubai Icon
8.15pm: Dubai Legacy
8.50pm: Drafted
9.25pm: Lucius Tiberius
Neil Thomson – THE BIO
Family: I am happily married to my wife Liz and we have two children together.
Favourite music: Rock music. I started at a young age due to my father’s influence. He played in an Indian rock band The Flintstones who were once asked by Apple Records to fly over to England to perform there.
Favourite book: I constantly find myself reading The Bible.
Favourite film: The Greatest Showman.
Favourite holiday destination: I love visiting Melbourne as I have family there and it’s a wonderful place. New York at Christmas is also magical.
Favourite food: I went to boarding school so I like any cuisine really.
Super Saturday race card
4pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 | US$350,000 | (Dirt) | 1,200m
4.35pm: Al Bastakiya Listed | $300,000 | (D) | 1,900m
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Turf Group 3 | $350,000 | (Turf) | 1,200m
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 | $350,000 | (D) | 1,600m
6.20pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 | $300,000 | (T) | 2,410m
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 Group 1 | $600,000 | (D) | 2,000m
7.30pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 | $400,000 | (T) | 1,800m
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Team Angel Wolf Beach Blast takes place every Wednesday between 4:30pm and 5:30pm
UAE Rugby finals day
Games being played at The Sevens, Dubai
2pm, UAE Conference final
Dubai Tigers v Al Ain Amblers
4pm, UAE Premiership final
Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Jebel Ali Dragons
How to help
Donate towards food and a flight by transferring money to this registered charity's account.
Account name: Dar Al Ber Society
Account Number: 11 530 734
IBAN: AE 9805 000 000 000 11 530 734
Bank Name: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
To ensure that your contribution reaches these people, please send the copy of deposit/transfer receipt to: juhi.khan@daralber.ae
HAJJAN
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The bio
Favourite vegetable: Broccoli
Favourite food: Seafood
Favourite thing to cook: Duck l'orange
Favourite book: Give and Take by Adam Grant, one of his professors at University of Pennsylvania
Favourite place to travel: Home in Kuwait.
Favourite place in the UAE: Al Qudra lakes
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Profile Box
Company/date started: 2015
Founder/CEO: Mohammed Toraif
Based: Manama, Bahrain
Sector: Sales, Technology, Conservation
Size: (employees/revenue) 4/ 5,000 downloads
Stage: 1 ($100,000)
Investors: Two first-round investors including, 500 Startups, Fawaz Al Gosaibi Holding (Saudi Arabia)
UAE's final round of matches
- Sep 1, 2016 Beat Japan 2-1 (away)
- Sep 6, 2016 Lost to Australia 1-0 (home)
- Oct 6, 2016 Beat Thailand 3-1 (home)
- Oct 11, 2016 Lost to Saudi Arabia 3-0 (away)
- Nov 15, 2016 Beat Iraq 2-0 (home)
- Mar 23, 2017 Lost to Japan 2-0 (home)
- Mar 28, 2017 Lost to Australia 2-0 (away)
- June 13, 2017 Drew 1-1 with Thailand (away)
- Aug 29, 2017 v Saudi Arabia (home)
- Sep 5, 2017 v Iraq (away)
Martin Sabbagh profile
Job: CEO JCDecaux Middle East
In the role: Since January 2015
Lives: In the UAE
Background: M&A, investment banking
Studied: Corporate finance
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
THE%20HOLDOVERS
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Grand slam winners since July 2003
Who has won major titles since Wimbledon 2003 when Roger Federer won his first grand slam
Roger Federer 19 (8 Wimbledon, 5 Australian Open, 5 US Open, 1 French Open)
Rafael Nadal 16 (10 French Open, 3 US Open, 2 Wimbledon, 1 Australian Open)
Novak Djokovic 12 (6 Australian Open, 3 Wimbledon, 2 US Open, 1 French Open)
Andy Murray 3 (2 Wimbledon, 1 US Open)
Stan Wawrinka 3 (1 Australian Open, 1 French Open, 1 US Open)
Andy Roddick 1 (1 US Open)
Gaston Gaudio 1 (1 French Open)
Marat Safin 1 (1 Australian Open)
Juan Martin del Potro 1 (1 US Open)
Marin Cilic 1 (1 US Open)
THE%20FLASH
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Pots for the Asian Qualifiers
Pot 1: Iran, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, China
Pot 2: Iraq, Uzbekistan, Syria, Oman, Lebanon, Kyrgyz Republic, Vietnam, Jordan
Pot 3: Palestine, India, Bahrain, Thailand, Tajikistan, North Korea, Chinese Taipei, Philippines
Pot 4: Turkmenistan, Myanmar, Hong Kong, Yemen, Afghanistan, Maldives, Kuwait, Malaysia
Pot 5: Indonesia, Singapore, Nepal, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Mongolia, Guam, Macau/Sri Lanka
