The bull-market rally in US stocks is about to run out of steam, according to Citigroup.
Strategists at the bank led by Scott Chronert this week reiterated their call for the S&P 500 Index to tumble to 4,000 by year-end, and initiated a new target of 4,400 by mid-2024, or just below the 4,418 level the benchmark was trading at late Friday.
A lack of concrete earnings revisions and a looming US recession will catch up with ballooning share prices, while many key measures of investor psyche suggest wariness around the S&P 500’s latest breakout, Mr Chronert wrote in notes to clients this week.
The Levkovich Index, a sentiment gauge, remains in “panic” territory at -0.18, while his team called the equity flow backdrop “putrid”.
“Combined, this implies this move above 4,400 on the S&P 500 is relatively unloved,” he wrote.
Even as equities have defied naysayers in recent months, Mr Chronert remains among a chorus of Wall Street bears unconvinced the rally has legs.
Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett said on Friday that it was unlikely that a “brand, new shiny bull market,” is under way, comparing the current set-up to 2000 or 2008. Prominent bearish voices like Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and JPMorgan Chase & Co’s Marko Kolanvovic have also doubled down on their downbeat forecasts this week.
The S&P 500 closed 0.37 per cent lower at 4,409.59 at the end of the trading session on Friday.
It’s a pivotal moment for Wall Street strategists tasked with predicting where the stock market will go after the consensus bearish outlook heading into 2023 failed to come to fruition. The common view was that stocks would drop in the first half and recover to close little changed from late 2022 levels by the end of the year. Instead, the S&P 500 is up more than 15 per cent year-to-date and Nasdaq 100 nearly 40 per cent
While big names including BofA’s Savita Subramanian and RBC’s Lori Calvasina have modified their calls, those who remain adamant a downturn awaits are in for a big test as the second half of the year gets under way.
“While acknowledging we missed the AI euphoria to grip mega cap growth cohort, lack of concrete earnings revision support implies a digestive phase” in the second half, Mr Chronert wrote earlier this week.
“As enticing as it may be to follow the tape and nudge our year-end target higher, we just do not see the fundamental justification for this, yet.”
TOURNAMENT INFO
Opening fixtures:
Friday, Oct 5
8pm: Kabul Zwanan v Paktia Panthers
Saturday, Oct 6
4pm: Nangarhar Leopards v Kandahar Knights
8pm: Kabul Zwanan v Balkh Legends
Tickets
Tickets can be bought online at https://www.q-tickets.com/apl/eventlist and at the ticket office at the stadium.
TV info
The tournament will be broadcast live in the UAE on OSN Sports.
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl
Power: 153hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Price: Dh99,000
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ponti
Sharlene Teo, Pan Macmillan
Miss Granny
Director: Joyce Bernal
Starring: Sarah Geronimo, James Reid, Xian Lim, Nova Villa
3/5
(Tagalog with Eng/Ar subtitles)
Hydrogen: Market potential
Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.
"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.
Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.
The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The Two Popes
Director: Fernando Meirelles
Stars: Anthony Hopkins, Jonathan Pryce
Four out of five stars
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
