A US stocks rally is leaving behind smaller companies, a sign that investors may be bracing for economic turmoil ahead.
The small-cap Russell 2000 is down about 1 per cent this year, compared to a rally that has boosted the S&P 500, an index representing the largest US companies, by 7 per cent.
Like the inverted US Treasury yield curve and the strength in gold prices, the weakness in shares of smaller companies — which tend to derive profits domestically and be more vulnerable to economic shifts than larger firms — is one of several signs that investors are uneasy about the economic outlook.
Small cap stocks have struggled since turmoil in US regional banks began in early March, with the Russell 2000 down 7 per cent since March 8. Investors fear that smaller firms will be hit hard by a potential lending slowdown that could weigh on the broader economy.
Investors are “trying to position their portfolios for what they think is going to happen in the economy”, said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management, which specialises in small caps.
“Small caps being out of favour is another signal that investors are bracing themselves for an impending recession.”
Small caps have tended to waver ahead of economic weakness in the past. Since 1980, the Russell 2000 has lagged the S&P 500 by an average of about four percentage points in the six months after the economic cycle has peaked, ahead of a recession, according to Strategas data.
Economic data has so far shown few signs of a sharp drop-off in growth, though inflation and some other important metrics have cooled. Still, some market participants believe the Fed's 500 basis points of rate increases over the past year are only starting to impact the economy.
“We are likely headed into a recession sometime in the next 12 months,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisers. “Typically in a recession, small caps underperform.”
At the same time, investors worry that banking instability will hurt smaller US companies that rely on loans from regional banks, which have been at the centre of the recent crisis.
An April survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses found 67 per cent of small business owners use a small or regional bank, 17 per cent use a medium-size bank, while 14 per cent use a large one.
Smaller bank stocks have been hit particularly hard in recent weeks while financials are also more heavily represented in indexes tracking small-cap shares, accounting for some of their weakness in relation to the S&P 500.
“What is going on with the banking system is especially a headwind for small and mid-sized corporations,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Last month it downgraded its view on US small caps from “unfavourable” to “most unfavourable”.
“For their borrowing, they don't have the same kind of options as maybe a larger firm does,” Mr Samana said.
Investors next week will be focusing on economic data including monthly retail sales and earnings reports from companies including Walmart, Home Depot and Cisco Systems.
Some investors are more upbeat about the outlook for small caps, particularly when looking beyond the next several months.
One reason is that small caps, being sensitive to economic fluctuations, tend to shine early in a market recovery.
Of the past six bear markets, the Russell 2000 has posted an average total return gain of 44.8 per cent in the six months following a bear market bottom, versus a 32.2 per cent gain for the S&P 500, according to brokerage Edward Jones.
A lot of investors would be nervous right now about leaning into small caps
Tim Murray,
capital market strategist at T. Rowe Price
Small caps are also cheap relative to their history as investors worry that large-cap stocks have become expensive, with the S&P 500's rally this year defying an uncertain earnings outlook.
The small-cap S&P 600 is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of just over 13 times, compared to its 10-year average of 18.2 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.
Tim Murray, capital market strategist for the multi-asset group at T. Rowe Price, said the firm is overweight US small-caps in multi-asset portfolios, noting that they have taken “a lot of pain” already amid widespread recession concerns.
“A lot of investors would be nervous right now about leaning into small caps,” he said.
But “the upside that you get in small caps generally is very front loaded and [comes very quickly after] a recession has been priced in”.
Company%20profile
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Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
Ready Player One
Dir: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Tye Sheridan, Olivia Cooke, Ben Mendelsohn, Mark Rylance
If you go:
Getting there:
Flying to Guyana requires first reaching New York with either Emirates or Etihad, then connecting with JetBlue or Caribbean Air at JFK airport. Prices start from around Dh7,000.
Getting around:
Wildlife Worldwide offers a range of Guyana itineraries, such as its small group tour, the 15-day ‘Ultimate Guyana Nature Experience’ which features Georgetown, the Iwokrama Rainforest (one of the world’s four remaining pristine tropical rainforests left in the world), the Amerindian village of Surama and the Rupununi Savannah, known for its giant anteaters and river otters; wildlifeworldwide.com
Result
Qualifier: Islamabad United beat Karachi Kings by eight wickets
Fixtures
Tuesday, Lahore: Eliminator 1 - Peshawar Zalmi v Quetta Gladiators
Wednesday, Lahore: Eliminator 2 – Karachi Kings v Winner of Eliminator 1
Sunday, Karachi: Final – Islamabad United v Winner of Eliminator 2
The Freedom Artist
By Ben Okri (Head of Zeus)
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last 16, first leg
Liverpool v Bayern Munich, midnight (Wednesday), BeIN Sports
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%202-litre%20direct%20injection%20turbo%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%207-speed%20automatic%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20261hp%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20400Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20From%20Dh134%2C999%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Get Out
Director: Jordan Peele
Stars: Daniel Kaluuya, Allison Williams, Catherine Keener, Bradley Whitford
Four stars
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
The specs: 2018 Infiniti QX80
Price: base / as tested: Dh335,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 400hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.1L / 100km
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RACE CARD
6.30pm Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,200
7.05pm Handicap Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
7.40pm Maiden Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm Handicap Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
8.50pm Handicap Dh175,000 (D) 1,400m
9.25pm Handicap Dh175,000 (D) 2,000m
The National selections:
6.30pm Underwriter
7.05pm Rayig
7.40pm Torno Subito
8.15pm Talento Puma
8.50pm Etisalat
9.25pm Gundogdu
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 1 Chelsea 0
De Bruyne (70')
Man of the Match: Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City)
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPowertrain%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20electric%20motor%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E201hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E310Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E53kWh%20lithium-ion%20battery%20pack%20(GS%20base%20model)%3B%2070kWh%20battery%20pack%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E350km%20(GS)%3B%20480km%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C900%20(GS)%3B%20Dh149%2C000%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Zayed Sustainability Prize
LUKA CHUPPI
Director: Laxman Utekar
Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Cinema
Cast: Kartik Aaryan, Kriti Sanon, Pankaj Tripathi, Vinay Pathak, Aparshakti Khurana
Rating: 3/5
Off-roading in the UAE: How to checklist
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
