A US stocks rally is leaving behind smaller companies, a sign that investors may be bracing for economic turmoil ahead.
The small-cap Russell 2000 is down about 1 per cent this year, compared to a rally that has boosted the S&P 500, an index representing the largest US companies, by 7 per cent.
Like the inverted US Treasury yield curve and the strength in gold prices, the weakness in shares of smaller companies — which tend to derive profits domestically and be more vulnerable to economic shifts than larger firms — is one of several signs that investors are uneasy about the economic outlook.
Small cap stocks have struggled since turmoil in US regional banks began in early March, with the Russell 2000 down 7 per cent since March 8. Investors fear that smaller firms will be hit hard by a potential lending slowdown that could weigh on the broader economy.
Investors are “trying to position their portfolios for what they think is going to happen in the economy”, said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management, which specialises in small caps.
“Small caps being out of favour is another signal that investors are bracing themselves for an impending recession.”
Small caps have tended to waver ahead of economic weakness in the past. Since 1980, the Russell 2000 has lagged the S&P 500 by an average of about four percentage points in the six months after the economic cycle has peaked, ahead of a recession, according to Strategas data.
Economic data has so far shown few signs of a sharp drop-off in growth, though inflation and some other important metrics have cooled. Still, some market participants believe the Fed's 500 basis points of rate increases over the past year are only starting to impact the economy.
“We are likely headed into a recession sometime in the next 12 months,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisers. “Typically in a recession, small caps underperform.”
At the same time, investors worry that banking instability will hurt smaller US companies that rely on loans from regional banks, which have been at the centre of the recent crisis.
An April survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses found 67 per cent of small business owners use a small or regional bank, 17 per cent use a medium-size bank, while 14 per cent use a large one.
Smaller bank stocks have been hit particularly hard in recent weeks while financials are also more heavily represented in indexes tracking small-cap shares, accounting for some of their weakness in relation to the S&P 500.
“What is going on with the banking system is especially a headwind for small and mid-sized corporations,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Last month it downgraded its view on US small caps from “unfavourable” to “most unfavourable”.
“For their borrowing, they don't have the same kind of options as maybe a larger firm does,” Mr Samana said.
Investors next week will be focusing on economic data including monthly retail sales and earnings reports from companies including Walmart, Home Depot and Cisco Systems.
Some investors are more upbeat about the outlook for small caps, particularly when looking beyond the next several months.
One reason is that small caps, being sensitive to economic fluctuations, tend to shine early in a market recovery.
Of the past six bear markets, the Russell 2000 has posted an average total return gain of 44.8 per cent in the six months following a bear market bottom, versus a 32.2 per cent gain for the S&P 500, according to brokerage Edward Jones.
A lot of investors would be nervous right now about leaning into small caps
Tim Murray,
capital market strategist at T. Rowe Price
Small caps are also cheap relative to their history as investors worry that large-cap stocks have become expensive, with the S&P 500's rally this year defying an uncertain earnings outlook.
The small-cap S&P 600 is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of just over 13 times, compared to its 10-year average of 18.2 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.
Tim Murray, capital market strategist for the multi-asset group at T. Rowe Price, said the firm is overweight US small-caps in multi-asset portfolios, noting that they have taken “a lot of pain” already amid widespread recession concerns.
“A lot of investors would be nervous right now about leaning into small caps,” he said.
But “the upside that you get in small caps generally is very front loaded and [comes very quickly after] a recession has been priced in”.
ALL THE RESULTS
Bantamweight
Siyovush Gulmomdov (TJK) bt Rey Nacionales (PHI) by decision.
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) bt Hussein Fakhir Abed (SYR) by submission.
Catch 74kg
Omar Hussein (JOR) bt Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) by decision.
Strawweight (Female)
Seo Ye-dam (KOR) bt Weronika Zygmunt (POL) by decision.
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (TUR) bt Walid Laidi (ALG) by TKO.
Lightweight
Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) bt Leandro Martins (BRA) by TKO.
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) bt Sofiane Benchohra (ALG) by TKO.
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR) no contest.
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) bt Glen Ranillo (PHI) by TKO round 1.
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) bt Aidan Aguilera (AUS) by TKO round 1.
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (TUN) bt Sasha Palatkinov (HKG) by TKO round 1.
Featherweight title bout
Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) by KO round 1.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sustainable Development Goals
1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation
10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
'Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower'
Michael Beckley, Cornell Press
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
Five famous companies founded by teens
There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:
- Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate.
- Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc.
- Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway.
- Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
- Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
All%20The%20Light%20We%20Cannot%20See%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESteven%20Knight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMark%20Ruffalo%2C%20Hugh%20Laurie%2C%20Aria%20Mia%20Loberti%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Read more about the coronavirus
Uefa Nations League: How it Works
The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
RACE SCHEDULE
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday, September 29
First practice: 7am - 8.30am
Second practice: 11am - 12.30pm
Saturday, September 30
Qualifying: 1pm - 2pm
Sunday, October 1
Race: 11am - 1pm
Ukraine%20exports
%3Cp%3EPresident%20Volodymyr%20Zelenskyy%20has%20overseen%20grain%20being%20loaded%20for%20export%20onto%20a%20Turkish%20ship%20following%20a%20deal%20with%20Russia%20brokered%20by%20the%20UN%20and%20Turkey.%3Cbr%3E%22The%20first%20vessel%2C%20the%20first%20ship%20is%20being%20loaded%20since%20the%20beginning%20of%20the%20war.%20This%20is%20a%20Turkish%20vessel%2C%22%20Zelensky%20said%2C%20adding%20exports%20could%20start%20in%20%22the%20coming%20days%22%20under%20the%20plan%20aimed%20at%20getting%20millions%20of%20tonnes%20of%20Ukrainian%20grain%20stranded%20by%20Russia's%20naval%20blockade%20to%20world%20markets.%3Cbr%3E%22Our%20side%20is%20fully%20prepared%2C%22%20he%20said.%20%22We%20sent%20all%20the%20signals%20to%20our%20partners%20--%20the%20UN%20and%20Turkey%2C%20and%20our%20military%20guarantees%20the%20security%20situation.%22%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Young women have more “financial grit”, but fall behind on investing
In an October survey of young adults aged 16 to 25, Charles Schwab found young women are more driven to reach financial independence than young men (67 per cent versus. 58 per cent). They are more likely to take on extra work to make ends meet and see more value than men in creating a plan to achieve their financial goals. Yet, despite all these good ‘first’ measures, they are investing and saving less than young men – falling early into the financial gender gap.
While the women surveyed report spending 36 per cent less than men, they have far less savings than men ($1,267 versus $2,000) – a nearly 60 per cent difference.
In addition, twice as many young men as women say they would invest spare cash, and almost twice as many young men as women report having investment accounts (though most young adults do not invest at all).
“Despite their good intentions, young women start to fall behind their male counterparts in savings and investing early on in life,” said Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz, senior vice president, Charles Schwab. “They start off showing a strong financial planning mindset, but there is still room for further education when it comes to managing their day-to-day finances.”
Ms Schwab-Pomerantz says parents should be conveying the same messages to boys and girls about money, but should tailor those conversations based on the individual and gender.
"Our study shows that while boys are spending more than girls, they also are saving more. Have open and honest conversations with your daughters about the wage and savings gap," she said. "Teach kids about the importance of investing – especially girls, who as we see in this study, aren’t investing as much. Part of being financially prepared is learning to make the most of your money, and that means investing early and consistently."
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
