Investors are losing their ability to resist a stock rally that much of Wall Street is convinced is doomed.
More than $12.6 billion has been sent to equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in April, the largest influx since January and more than twice the rate of February and March.
Money is pouring into stocks as fast as it’s being yanked out of cash: ultra-short duration ETFs are on track for their first monthly outflow since January, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.
Spigots are turning back on at a time of fairly intense scepticism among the pundit class. To the ever-elongating list of potential obstacles, investors were treated in the past few days to dour tidings in both the Federal Reserve Beige Book report and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index.
While earnings have been broadly positive, results from Fastenal to Ally Financial and even Tesla hinted the US consumer is beginning to buckle. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is butting up against a level where previous attempts to break out of its sideways march have run out of steam.
Does a case for optimism exist? Yes, mainly in how widespread the bearishness remains — by some measures, it’s the most extreme since 2009. Despite the souring risk appetite after aggressive Fed tightening and banking system turmoil, the S&P 500 has still come nowhere near revisiting its worst levels of last year.
“We haven’t had a new low since October, people aren’t hearing artillery shells landing any more, so they’re peeking heads out of foxholes,” said George Pearkes, global macro strategist at Bespoke Investment Group.
“It may seem silly to attribute large flows of capital to something as simple as not seeing a drop in some time. But that’s how we see flows and sentiment operating in practice, even if it is simple and reductive.”
The S&P 500 finished the week a hair lower, leaving this year’s gain above 7.5 per cent. Meanwhile, volatility continued to drain from the bond market — the 10-year Treasury yield added just four basis points in the week, the smallest swing since before Silicon Valley Bank’s sudden collapse last month.
A similar dynamic prevailed in credit, where few signs of surface-level stress exist despite some red flags. Both investment-grade and high-yield spreads remain well below the peaks of last summer, even as ratings agencies downgrade corporate bonds to junk status at the busiest pace since the pandemic’s outbreak in 2020.
“There’s a fear of missing out on an upside move,” said Charles Campbell, a managing director and trading desk specialist at Roth MKM.
“People are also putting money in it because some believe we can have a no landing or soft economic landing scenario, which I don’t subscribe to.”
For the stock faithful, lines on charts may pose the nearest threat to hopes the rally can continue. Up four of the last six weeks to just over 4,130, the S&P 500 sits within about a hundred points of levels where rallies reversed themselves in February, November and September. At more than 18 times annual earnings, the index isn’t cheap, particularly with analysts expecting profits to fall in 2023.
While economic data remains mixed, concern over the prospect of a credit crunch spurred by March’s banking stress is proving hard to shake.
The Fed’s Beige Book survey of regional business contacts found economic activity little changed and said several districts noted banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity.
The Philly Fed factory index fell to minus 31.3, a level that has preceded past recessions.
“We still see a weakening environment for risk assets and would be playing defence,” Sameer Samana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute’s senior global market strategist, who expects the Fed to stick to its inflation-fighting stance.
“Stocks have made their way close to the upper end of their trading range. We view that disconnect as an opportunity to pull further risk off the table.”
There’s a fear of missing out on an upside move. People are also putting money in it because some believe we can have a no landing or soft economic landing scenario, which I don’t subscribe to
Charles Campbell,
managing director and trading desk specialist at Roth MKM
A handful of earnings reports also gave reason for pause, even as most companies managed — as always — to deliver results that beat analyst predictions. Construction materials supplier Fastenal said growth in March sales slowed to the lowest since June 2021.
Ally Financial’s profit plummeted as it made fewer auto loans and put aside additional provisions to cover consumer defaults. Tesla slumped 11 per cent on the week after chief executive Elon Musk indicated he’ll keep cutting prices to stoke demand.
Consistent with rising risk appetites among retail ETF buyers, a gauge of adviser sentiment kept by Investors Intelligence known as the bull/bear ratio climbed for a fourth week to its highest since the start of 2022 — the month that marked the beginning of the current bear market.
The indicator hit 1.0 in October, near its financial-crisis low, just before stocks began their current rally.
“In late October, we concluded that sentiment was so bearish it had to be bullish,” wrote Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research.
Right now, “sentiment may not be bullish enough to work as a contrary indicator for the bears, nor bearish enough to work for the bulls", he said.
“A stalemate in their tug-of-war may be the result until the recession and debt-ceiling debates are resolved, probably in early June. Then, the current bull market is likely to resume, in our opinion.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The specs: 2018 Maserati Levante S
Price, base / as tested: Dh409,000 / Dh467,000
Engine: 3.0-litre V6
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 430hp @ 5,750rpm
Torque: 580Nm @ 4,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 10.9L / 100km
SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%20Supercharged%203.5-litre%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20400hp%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20430Nm%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh450%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E470hp%2C%20338kW%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20620Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh491%2C500%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
The 12 Syrian entities delisted by UK
Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
Al Watan newspaper
Cham Press TV
Sama TV
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
if you go
The flights
Air France offer flights from Dubai and Abu Dhabi to Cayenne, connecting in Paris from Dh7,300.
The tour
Cox & Kings (coxandkings.com) has a 14-night Hidden Guianas tour of Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. It includes accommodation, domestic flights, transfers, a local tour manager and guided sightseeing. Contact for price.
Normcore explained
Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.
Story%20behind%20the%20UAE%20flag
%3Cp%3EThe%20UAE%20flag%20was%20first%20unveiled%20on%20December%202%2C%201971%2C%20the%20day%20the%20UAE%20was%20formed.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIt%20was%20designed%20by%20Abdullah%20Mohammed%20Al%20Maainah%2C%2019%2C%20an%20Emirati%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMr%20Al%20Maainah%20said%20in%20an%20interview%20with%20%3Cem%3EThe%20National%3C%2Fem%3E%20in%202011%20he%20chose%20the%20colours%20for%20local%20reasons.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20black%20represents%20the%20oil%20riches%20that%20transformed%20the%20UAE%2C%20green%20stands%20for%20fertility%20and%20the%20red%20and%20white%20colours%20were%20drawn%20from%20those%20found%20in%20existing%20emirate%20flags.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
It's up to you to go green
Nils El Accad, chief executive and owner of Organic Foods and Café, says going green is about “lifestyle and attitude” rather than a “money change”; people need to plan ahead to fill water bottles in advance and take their own bags to the supermarket, he says.
“People always want someone else to do the work; it doesn’t work like that,” he adds. “The first step: you have to consciously make that decision and change.”
When he gets a takeaway, says Mr El Accad, he takes his own glass jars instead of accepting disposable aluminium containers, paper napkins and plastic tubs, cutlery and bags from restaurants.
He also plants his own crops and herbs at home and at the Sheikh Zayed store, from basil and rosemary to beans, squashes and papayas. “If you’re going to water anything, better it be tomatoes and cucumbers, something edible, than grass,” he says.
“All this throwaway plastic - cups, bottles, forks - has to go first,” says Mr El Accad, who has banned all disposable straws, whether plastic or even paper, from the café chain.
One of the latest changes he has implemented at his stores is to offer refills of liquid laundry detergent, to save plastic. The two brands Organic Foods stocks, Organic Larder and Sonnett, are both “triple-certified - you could eat the product”.
The Organic Larder detergent will soon be delivered in 200-litre metal oil drums before being decanted into 20-litre containers in-store.
Customers can refill their bottles at least 30 times before they start to degrade, he says. Organic Larder costs Dh35.75 for one litre and Dh62 for 2.75 litres and refills will cost 15 to 20 per cent less, Mr El Accad says.
But while there are savings to be had, going green tends to come with upfront costs and extra work and planning. Are we ready to refill bottles rather than throw them away? “You have to change,” says Mr El Accad. “I can only make it available.”
Expo details
Expo 2020 Dubai will be the first World Expo to be held in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia
The world fair will run for six months from October 20, 2020 to April 10, 2021.
It is expected to attract 25 million visits
Some 70 per cent visitors are projected to come from outside the UAE, the largest proportion of international visitors in the 167-year history of World Expos.
More than 30,000 volunteers are required for Expo 2020
The site covers a total of 4.38 sqkm, including a 2 sqkm gated area
It is located adjacent to Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai South
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
Company profile
Name: One Good Thing
Founders: Bridgett Lau and Micheal Cooke
Based in: Dubai
Sector: e-commerce
Size: 5 employees
Stage: Looking for seed funding
Investors: Self-funded and seeking external investors
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Major honours
ARSENAL
BARCELONA
- La Liga - 2013
- Copa del Rey - 2012
- Fifa Club World Cup - 2011
CHELSEA
- Premier League - 2015, 2017
- FA Cup - 2018
- League Cup - 2015
SPAIN
- World Cup - 2010
- European Championship - 2008, 2012
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
Moonfall
Director: Rolan Emmerich
Stars: Patrick Wilson, Halle Berry
Rating: 3/5
