A closely-watched US inflation report next week could help settle one of Wall Street’s most pressing questions: whether the market has correctly pegged the near-term trajectory for interest rates.
Following last month’s banking crisis, investors have become more convinced the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the second half to ward off an economic downturn. Such bets have pushed bond yields lower, supporting the giant tech and growth stocks that hold sway over broad equity indexes. The S&P 500 has gained 6.9 per cent so far this year.
But the central bank’s more restrictive rate outlook sees borrowing costs remaining around current levels through 2023. That view could gain support if next week’s inflation reading shows a strong rise in consumer prices even after aggressive Fed rate hikes over the past year.
“If [the CPI] comes in hot, investors will start to price interest rates closer to where the Fed is and likely pressure asset prices,” said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at US Bank Wealth Management.
The firm is recommending clients slightly underweight equities, expecting interest rate hikes to hit consumer spending and corporate profits.
US employment data for March, released on Friday, showed signs of persistent labour market tightness that could prompt the Fed to hike rates again next month.
Recession worries are mounting, with investors betting the tumult in the banking system sparked by the March collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will tighten credit conditions and hurt growth.
In the bond market, the Fed’s preferred recession indicator plunged to fresh lows in the past week, bolstering the case for those who believe the central bank will soon need to cut rates. The measure compares the current implied forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now with the current yield on a three-month Treasury bill.
Pricing in futures markets shows investors betting that central bank easing later this year will drop the fed funds rate from 4.75 per cent to five per cent currently to around 4.3 per cent by year-end. Yet projections from Fed policymakers show that most expect no rate cuts until 2024.
"Financial markets and the Federal Reserve are reading from two different playbooks," strategists at LPL Research said in a note earlier this week.
Bets on a more dovish Fed have boosted tech and growth stocks, whose future profits are discounted less when interest rates fall. The S&P 500 technology sector has surged 6.7 per cent since March 8, more than twice the gain for the overall index over that time.
Economists polled by Reuters expect March data, due April 12, to show the consumer price index climbed by 5.2 per cent on an annual basis, down from six per cent the prior month.
Markets will also watch first-quarter earnings, which start in the coming week with major banks including JPMorgan and Citigroup due on Friday. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2 per cent in the first quarter from the year-ago period, data from Refinitiv showed.
If the Fed was trying to protect investors, one way would be to cut rates. They haven’t done so yet, but the market is betting that they will, rightfully or wrongfully
Mark Hackett,
chief of investment research at Nationwide
For some investors, the Fed’s recent interventions to stabilise the banking system may have revived hopes of a so-called Fed-put, said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide, referring to expectations that the central bank will take action if stocks fall too deeply, even though it has no mandate to maintain asset prices.
“If the Fed was trying to protect investors, one way would be to cut rates," Mr Hackett said. "They haven’t done so yet, but the market is betting that they will, rightfully or wrongfully.”
Still, a recession could pressure stock prices, even if it forces the Fed to cut rates sooner. Some investors worry that stock prices have not accounted for a drop in valuations and corporate earnings that would occur during a sharp slowdown.
“One only needs to look back to 2001 or 2008 to see that a shift in Fed policy alone is not always enough to stop an economy on a downwards trajectory or start a new bull market,” wrote Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, in a note earlier this week.
“Our view is the market is now baking in a lot of good news and leaving little margin for error,” he said.
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Most match wins on clay
Guillermo Vilas - 659
Manuel Orantes - 501
Thomas Muster - 422
Rafael Nadal - 399 *
Jose Higueras - 378
Eddie Dibbs - 370
Ilie Nastase - 338
Carlos Moya - 337
Ivan Lendl - 329
Andres Gomez - 322
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Neo%20Mobility%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20February%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abhishek%20Shah%20and%20Anish%20Garg%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Logistics%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Delta%20Corp%2C%20Pyse%20Sustainability%20Fund%2C%20angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
Temple numbers
Expected completion: 2022
Height: 24 meters
Ground floor banquet hall: 370 square metres to accommodate about 750 people
Ground floor multipurpose hall: 92 square metres for up to 200 people
First floor main Prayer Hall: 465 square metres to hold 1,500 people at a time
First floor terrace areas: 2,30 square metres
Temple will be spread over 6,900 square metres
Structure includes two basements, ground and first floor
Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
DIVINE%20INTERVENTOIN
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2A)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7-inch%20flexible%20Amoled%2C%202%2C412%20x%201%2C080%2C%20394ppi%2C%20120Hz%2C%20Corning%20Gorilla%20Glass%205%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MediaTek%20Dimensity%207%2C200%20Pro%2C%204nm%2C%20octa-core%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F12GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20128%2F256GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2014%2C%20Nothing%20OS%202.5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%2050MP%20main%2C%20f%2F1.88%20%2B%2050MP%20ultra-wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3B%20OIS%2C%20EIS%2C%20auto-focus%2C%20ultra%20XDR%2C%20night%20mode%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2030fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2060fps%3B%20slo-mo%20full-HD%20at%20120fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2032MP%20wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2C000mAh%3B%2050%25%20in%2030%20minutes%20with%2045-watt%20charger%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Google%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fingerprint%2C%20face%20unlock%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP54%2C%20limited%20protection%20from%20water%2Fdust%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual-nano%20SIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Black%2C%20milk%2C%20white%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nothing%20Phone%20(2a)%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%2C%20pre-applied%20screen%20protector%2C%20Sim%20tray%20ejector%20tool%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%20(UAE)%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh1%2C199%20(8GB%2F128GB)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C399%20(12GB%2F256GB)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dubai World Cup Carnival card:
6.30pm: Handicap (Turf) | US$175,000 | 2,410 metres
7.05pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (Dirt) | $100,000 | 1,400m
7.40pm: Handicap (T) | $145,000 | 1,000m
8.15pm: Dubawi Stakes Group 3 (D) | $200,000 | 1,200m
8.50pm: Singspiel Stakes Group 3 (T) | $200,000 | 1,800m
9.25pm: Handicap (T) | $175,000 | 1,400m
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
New process leads to panic among jobseekers
As a UAE-based travel agent who processes tourist visas from the Philippines, Jennifer Pacia Gado is fielding a lot of calls from concerned travellers just now. And they are all asking the same question.
“My clients are mostly Filipinos, and they [all want to know] about good conduct certificates,” says the 34-year-old Filipina, who has lived in the UAE for five years.
Ms Gado contacted the Philippines Embassy to get more information on the certificate so she can share it with her clients. She says many are worried about the process and associated costs – which could be as high as Dh500 to obtain and attest a good conduct certificate from the Philippines for jobseekers already living in the UAE.
“They are worried about this because when they arrive here without the NBI [National Bureau of Investigation] clearance, it is a hassle because it takes time,” she says.
“They need to go first to the embassy to apply for the application of the NBI clearance. After that they have go to the police station [in the UAE] for the fingerprints. And then they will apply for the special power of attorney so that someone can finish the process in the Philippines. So it is a long process and more expensive if you are doing it from here.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Day 5, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day When Dilruwan Perera dismissed Yasir Shah to end Pakistan’s limp resistance, the Sri Lankans charged around the field with the fevered delirium of a side not used to winning. Trouble was, they had not. The delivery was deemed a no ball. Sri Lanka had a nervy wait, but it was merely a stay of execution for the beleaguered hosts.
Stat of the day – 5 Pakistan have lost all 10 wickets on the fifth day of a Test five times since the start of 2016. It is an alarming departure for a side who had apparently erased regular collapses from their resume. “The only thing I can say, it’s not a mitigating excuse at all, but that’s a young batting line up, obviously trying to find their way,” said Mickey Arthur, Pakistan’s coach.
The verdict Test matches in the UAE are known for speeding up on the last two days, but this was extreme. The first two innings of this Test took 11 sessions to complete. The remaining two were done in less than four. The nature of Pakistan’s capitulation at the end showed just how difficult the transition is going to be in the post Misbah-ul-Haq era.
