US stocks have soldiered on through a banking mess to notch solid first-quarter gains. Some investors say that performance could come under pressure if a widely expected recession hits.
The benchmark S&P 500 posted a 7 per cent gain for the first quarter, which ended on Friday, rebounding after a nearly 20 per cent drop in 2022. The Nasdaq Composite's 16.8 per cent first-quarter jump was its biggest quarterly increase since 2020.
Wary investors say those gains leave stocks more vulnerable to an economic downturn, which may have been brought closer by tumult in the banking sector after last month’s collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
Many point to equity valuations, which by historical standards are still elevated, while arguing that corporate earnings may have a long way to fall in the event of a recession.
“The answer is emphatically no, the market is not priced for a recession at all,” said Hans Olsen, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust, which is guarding against future market turbulence by holding higher than typical amounts of cash.
For stocks, “it means that we could be in for some very nasty surprises over the coming quarters".
To what degree equities have factored in a possible recession — and whether the economy will experience one — is a point of contention on Wall Street.
Strong data earlier in the year bolstered hopes that the US would suffer only a mild recession or avoid one altogether, despite a barrage of rate increases from the Federal Reserve.
The banking sector turbulence again revved up concerns, as some analysts said the stress on lenders could pressure the economy just as the Fed’s monetary policy tightening is starting to bite.
That’s pushed investors to take a second look at key metrics such as corporate earnings. While estimates for profits are already downbeat for the coming quarters, some believe they may fall further if there is a recession.
"Given the events of the past few weeks, we think ... equity markets are at greater risk of pricing in much lower estimates," Morgan Stanley strategists said in a report this week, noting that earnings estimates were 15 per cent to 20 per cent too high even "before the recent banking events".
S&P 500 earnings for the first quarter are estimated to have fallen 5 per cent from the previous year, followed by an expected 3.9 per cent drop in the second quarter, Refinitiv data shows. During recessions, however, earnings tumble at a 24 per cent annual rate on average, according to Ned Davis Research.
US companies will start reporting first-quarter results in the coming weeks.
Valuations for stocks overall are also historically high, with the S&P 500 trading at about 18 times forward earnings estimates compared with its long-term average price-equity ratio of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.
Nathan Shetty, head of multi-asset at Nuveen, believes current valuations show investors have yet to price in a recession.
"If the market was looking through this and saying, 'OK, recession is likely to occur', you would start to see those valuations start to come down a bit rather than being as elevated as they are,” he said.
Investors are looking to next week's monthly payrolls report for a read on the strength of a labour market that has shown resiliency over the past year.
Do we have to price in the same recession twice? Likely not, but that is not to say that the coast is clear yet
Angelo Kourkafas,
investment strategist at Edward Jones
Some investors say stocks may have priced in a recession during last year’s steep decline, during which the S&P 500 fell by as much as 25.4 per cent from its all-time high to when it reached its October nadir.
Such a drop is broadly in line with historical data from Truist Advisory Services, showing the index has fallen an average of 29 per cent during recessions since the Second World War.
"Do we have to price in the same recession twice? Likely not, but that is not to say that the coast is clear yet,” said Angelo Kourkafas, an investment strategist at Edward Jones. Kourkafas believes stocks could face turbulence ahead but are unlikely to fall through their October lows.
Other variables could determine how markets react to an economic downturn, including its severity and length. Another is whether the Fed begins cutting rates when a downturn hits or keeps them elevated to finish off its fight against inflation.
Although the central bank’s outlook shows borrowing costs remaining at current levels by year end, investors in futures markets see rates falling in the second half of the year.
“Once the market gets visibility into the timing on those rate reductions, notwithstanding a recession, I don’t think that you are going to see a lot of downward movement in stocks,” said Tony Roth, chief investment officer for Wilmington Trust.
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
Know your Camel lingo
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers
Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s
Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival
How has net migration to UK changed?
The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Raha%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kuwait%2FSaudi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tech%20Logistics%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2414%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Soor%20Capital%2C%20eWTP%20Arabia%20Capital%2C%20Aujan%20Enterprises%2C%20Nox%20Management%2C%20Cedar%20Mundi%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20166%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BACK%20TO%20ALEXANDRIA
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETamer%20Ruggli%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadine%20Labaki%2C%20Fanny%20Ardant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Bob%20Marley%3A%20One%20Love
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A0Reinaldo%20Marcus%20Green%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EKingsley%20Ben-Adir%2C%20Lashana%20Lynch%2C%20James%20Norton%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A02%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKinetic%207%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rick%20Parish%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Clean%20cooking%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self-funded%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
All the Money in the World
Director: Ridley Scott
Starring: Charlie Plummer, Mark Wahlberg, Michelle Williams, Christopher Plummer
Four stars
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Match info
Manchester United 1
Fred (18')
Wolves 1
Moutinho (53')
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Inside%20Out%202
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EKelsey%20Mann%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A0Amy%20Poehler%2C%20Maya%20Hawke%2C%20Ayo%20Edebiri%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions
Publisher: LucasArts
Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
Rating: 4/5
Naga
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMeshal%20Al%20Jaser%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdwa%20Bader%2C%20Yazeed%20Almajyul%2C%20Khalid%20Bin%20Shaddad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
65
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EScott%20Beck%2C%20Bryan%20Woods%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdam%20Driver%2C%20Ariana%20Greenblatt%2C%20Chloe%20Coleman%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
25%20Days%20to%20Aden
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Michael%20Knights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20256%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2026%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl
Power: 153hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Price: Dh99,000
On sale: now
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8
Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm
Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km
Price: Dh380,000
On sale: now
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
How to register as a donor
1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention
2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants
3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.
4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope
UFC%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi
%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20112%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Invincible%20(April%2010%2C%202010)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENogueira%20v%20Nelson%20(April%2011%2C%202014)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20242%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Khabib%20v%20Poirier%20(September%207%2C%202019)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20251%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Usman%20v%20Masvidal%20(July%2012%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kattar%20v%20Ige%20(July%2016%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFigueiredo%20v%20Benavidez%202%20(July%2019%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%20Whittaker%20v%20Till%20(July%2026%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20253%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdesanya%20v%20Costa%20(September%2027%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Holm%20v%20Aldana%20(October%204%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Moraes%20v%20Sandhagen%20(October%2011%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ortega%20v%20Korean%20Zombie%20(October%2018%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20254%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKhabib%20v%20Gaethje%20(October%2024%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20on%20ABC%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Holloway%20v%20Kattar%20(January%2016%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chiesa%20v%20Magny%20(January%2020%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20257%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPoirier%20v%20McGregor%202%20(January%2024%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20267%3A%20Blachowicz%20v%20Teixeira%20(October%2030%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20280%3A%20Oliveira%20v%20Makhachev%20(October%2022%2C%202022)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
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