US stocks have soldiered on through a banking mess to notch solid first-quarter gains. Some investors say that performance could come under pressure if a widely expected recession hits.
The benchmark S&P 500 posted a 7 per cent gain for the first quarter, which ended on Friday, rebounding after a nearly 20 per cent drop in 2022. The Nasdaq Composite's 16.8 per cent first-quarter jump was its biggest quarterly increase since 2020.
Wary investors say those gains leave stocks more vulnerable to an economic downturn, which may have been brought closer by tumult in the banking sector after last month’s collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
Many point to equity valuations, which by historical standards are still elevated, while arguing that corporate earnings may have a long way to fall in the event of a recession.
“The answer is emphatically no, the market is not priced for a recession at all,” said Hans Olsen, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust, which is guarding against future market turbulence by holding higher than typical amounts of cash.
For stocks, “it means that we could be in for some very nasty surprises over the coming quarters".
To what degree equities have factored in a possible recession — and whether the economy will experience one — is a point of contention on Wall Street.
Strong data earlier in the year bolstered hopes that the US would suffer only a mild recession or avoid one altogether, despite a barrage of rate increases from the Federal Reserve.
The banking sector turbulence again revved up concerns, as some analysts said the stress on lenders could pressure the economy just as the Fed’s monetary policy tightening is starting to bite.
That’s pushed investors to take a second look at key metrics such as corporate earnings. While estimates for profits are already downbeat for the coming quarters, some believe they may fall further if there is a recession.
"Given the events of the past few weeks, we think ... equity markets are at greater risk of pricing in much lower estimates," Morgan Stanley strategists said in a report this week, noting that earnings estimates were 15 per cent to 20 per cent too high even "before the recent banking events".
S&P 500 earnings for the first quarter are estimated to have fallen 5 per cent from the previous year, followed by an expected 3.9 per cent drop in the second quarter, Refinitiv data shows. During recessions, however, earnings tumble at a 24 per cent annual rate on average, according to Ned Davis Research.
US companies will start reporting first-quarter results in the coming weeks.
Valuations for stocks overall are also historically high, with the S&P 500 trading at about 18 times forward earnings estimates compared with its long-term average price-equity ratio of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.
Nathan Shetty, head of multi-asset at Nuveen, believes current valuations show investors have yet to price in a recession.
"If the market was looking through this and saying, 'OK, recession is likely to occur', you would start to see those valuations start to come down a bit rather than being as elevated as they are,” he said.
Investors are looking to next week's monthly payrolls report for a read on the strength of a labour market that has shown resiliency over the past year.
Do we have to price in the same recession twice? Likely not, but that is not to say that the coast is clear yet
Angelo Kourkafas,
investment strategist at Edward Jones
Some investors say stocks may have priced in a recession during last year’s steep decline, during which the S&P 500 fell by as much as 25.4 per cent from its all-time high to when it reached its October nadir.
Such a drop is broadly in line with historical data from Truist Advisory Services, showing the index has fallen an average of 29 per cent during recessions since the Second World War.
"Do we have to price in the same recession twice? Likely not, but that is not to say that the coast is clear yet,” said Angelo Kourkafas, an investment strategist at Edward Jones. Kourkafas believes stocks could face turbulence ahead but are unlikely to fall through their October lows.
Other variables could determine how markets react to an economic downturn, including its severity and length. Another is whether the Fed begins cutting rates when a downturn hits or keeps them elevated to finish off its fight against inflation.
Although the central bank’s outlook shows borrowing costs remaining at current levels by year end, investors in futures markets see rates falling in the second half of the year.
“Once the market gets visibility into the timing on those rate reductions, notwithstanding a recession, I don’t think that you are going to see a lot of downward movement in stocks,” said Tony Roth, chief investment officer for Wilmington Trust.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
More on Quran memorisation:
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Juliet, Naked
Dir: Jesse Peretz
Starring: Chris O'Dowd, Rose Byrne, Ethan Hawke
Two stars
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
RESULTS
5pm: Watha Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
Winner: Dalil De Carrere, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Mohamed Daggash (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 70,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Miracle Maker, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Pharitz Al Denari, Bernardo Pinheiro, Mahmood Hussain
6.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Oss, Jesus Rosales, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: ES Nahawand, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: AF Almajhaz, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi, Khalifa Al Neyadi
8pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: AF Lewaa, Bernardo Pinheiro, Qaiss Aboud.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
World Sevens Series standing after Dubai
1. South Africa
2. New Zealand
3. England
4. Fiji
5. Australia
6. Samoa
7. Kenya
8. Scotland
9. France
10. Spain
11. Argentina
12. Canada
13. Wales
14. Uganda
15. United States
16. Russia
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
'HIJRAH%3A%20IN%20THE%20FOOTSTEPS%20OF%20THE%20PROPHET'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEdited%20by%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Idries%20Trevathan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20240%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hirmer%20Publishers%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Section 375
Cast: Akshaye Khanna, Richa Chadha, Meera Chopra & Rahul Bhat
Director: Ajay Bahl
Producers: Kumar Mangat Pathak, Abhishek Pathak & SCIPL
Rating: 3.5/5
'Saand Ki Aankh'
Produced by: Reliance Entertainment with Chalk and Cheese Films
Director: Tushar Hiranandani
Cast: Taapsee Pannu, Bhumi Pednekar, Prakash Jha, Vineet Singh
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Wednesday and the pair embraced but he failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset was due to a personal matter.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
The biog
Name: Gul Raziq
From: Charsadda, Pakistan
Family: Wife and six children
Favourite holes at Al Ghazal: 15 and 8
Golf Handicap: 6
Childhood sport: cricket
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
START-UPS%20IN%20BATCH%204%20OF%20SANABIL%20500'S%20ACCELERATOR%20PROGRAMME
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESaudi%20Arabia%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJoy%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Delivers%20car%20services%20with%20affordable%20prices%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EKaraz%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Helps%20diabetics%20with%20gamification%2C%20IoT%20and%20real-time%20data%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMedicarri%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Medical%20marketplace%20that%20connects%20clinics%20with%20suppliers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMod5r%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Makes%20automated%20and%20recurring%20investments%20to%20grow%20wealth%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStuck%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Live%2C%20on-demand%20language%20support%20to%20boost%20writing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWalzay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Helps%20in%20recruitment%20while%20reducing%20hiring%20time%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEighty6%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarketplace%20for%20restaurant%20and%20supplier%20procurements%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFarmUnboxed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHelps%20digitise%20international%20food%20supply%20chain%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ENutriCal%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Helps%20F%26amp%3BB%20businesses%20and%20governments%20with%20nutritional%20analysis%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWellxai%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Provides%20insurance%20that%20enables%20and%20rewards%20user%20habits%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEgypt%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAmwal%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20A%20Shariah-compliant%20crowd-lending%20platform%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeben%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Helps%20CFOs%20manage%20cash%20efficiently%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEgab%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Connects%20media%20outlets%20to%20journalists%20in%20hard-to-reach%20areas%20for%20exclusives%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ENeqabty%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Digitises%20financial%20and%20medical%20services%20of%20labour%20unions%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOman%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMonak%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Provides%20financial%20inclusion%20and%20life%20services%20to%20migrants%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RACECARD
6pm Emaar Dubai Sprint – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Turf) 1,200m
6.35pm Graduate Stakes – Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.10pm Al Khail Trophy – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 2,810m
7.45pm UAE 1000 Guineas – Listed (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,600m
8.20pm Zabeel Turf – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 2,000m
8.55pm Downtown Dubai Cup – Rated Conditions (TB) $80,000 (D) 1,400m
9.30pm Zabeel Mile – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,600m
10.05pm Dubai Sprint – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,200m
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
The details
Colette
Director: Wash Westmoreland
Starring: Keira Knightley, Dominic West
Our take: 3/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
The Vines - In Miracle Land
Two stars
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
UAE v Zimbabwe A
Results
Match 1 – UAE won by 4 wickets
Match 2 – UAE won by 5 wickets
Match 3 – UAE won by 25 runs
Match 4 – UAE won by 77 runs
Fixture
Match 5, Saturday, 9.30am start, ICC Academy, Dubai
The specs
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder
Transmission: CVT auto
Power: 181bhp
Torque: 244Nm
Price: Dh122,900
The years Ramadan fell in May
