Investors searching for safer areas in the US stock market are finding that traditional shelters that held up in last year's sell-off, such as consumer staples, utilities and health care, may be more problematic this time.
After rebounding sharply in January, the benchmark S&P 500 is wobbling again as investors worry the Federal Reserve will take interest rates higher than previously expected and keep them elevated for longer to thwart inflation.
Sell-offs can send investors looking for safety in so-called defensive names, which tend to have solid dividends and businesses that can weather rocky times.
"Last year, it was really easy to hide out in defensives," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. “It worked really well last year. I think it’s going to be more complicated this year.”
In the initial weeks of 2023, the argument for defensives has been weakened by evidence the economy remains strong, as well as by competition from assets such as short-term US Treasuries and money markets offering their highest yields in years.
Sectors such as utilities are known as bond proxies because they typically provide stable earnings and safety in the way government bonds have done in the past.
When compounded by the fact some defensive stocks carry relatively expensive valuations, investors may avoid them even if the broader market sours.
Utilities, health care and consumer staples held firm in last year's punishing markets, posting relatively small declines of about 1 per cent to 3.5 per cent as the overall S&P 500 tumbled 19.4 per cent.
So far this year, those groups have been the three biggest decliners of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, with utilities down about 8 per cent, health care off 6 per cent and staples dropping 3 per cent as of Thursday's close.
The S&P 500 was last up 3.7 per cent in 2023, but pulled back since posting its best January performance since 2019.
Fears of a recession induced by the Fed's swift rate-hiking cycle hovered over markets last year and investors gravitated towards defensive areas, confident that spending on medicine, food and other necessities would continue despite economic turmoil.
Strong recent economic data, including stunning employment growth in January, has prompted investors to rethink expectations of an imminent downturn.
"If you look at the equity market, it’s telling you there’s no recession risk basically,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.
Defensives so far this year have been a "pain trade", he said.
The health of the US economy will become clearer with the release of the February jobs report next Friday, while investors will also be watching Congressional evidence next week from Fed chairman Jerome Powell.
High dividends helped defensive shares as a place to park money in turbulent times over the past decade, especially since traditionally safe assets yielded little.
That dynamic changed in the past year as soaring inflation and the Fed's rate hikes pushed up yields on cash and Treasuries.
The utilities sector has a dividend yield of 3.4 per cent, staples stands at 2.7 per cent, while health care offers 1.8 per cent, data from S&P Dow Jones Indices showed this week. By contrast, the six-month US Treasury note yields nearly 5.2 per cent.
Last year, it was really easy to hide out in defensives. It worked really well last year. I think it’s going to be more complicated this year
Anthony Saglimbene,
chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial
“You can get a pretty attractive yield in the bond market now, which hasn’t been the case,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.
Meanwhile, valuations in some cases are also relatively expensive. The utilities sector trades at 17.7 times forward earnings estimates, a nearly 20 per cent premium to its historic average, while staples trade at a price-equity of 20 times, about 11 per cent above its historic average, Refinitiv Datastream said.
Health care's price-equity ratio of 17 times is slightly below its historic average. However, the sector's financial prospects this year are relatively weak; S&P 500 healthcare earnings are expected to fall 8.3 per cent against a 1.7 per cent increase for the overall S&P 500, Refinitiv said.
To be sure, other factors could aid the prospects of defensives. For example, an increase in volatility in the bond market could improve the lure of defensive equities as a safe haven, Mr Hackett said.
Should concerns about recession increase sharply, as they did last year, defensives could outperform again on a relative basis, investors have said.
Ameriprise is overweight health care and staples, said Mr Saglimbene, who sees an uncertain macro environment.
But more broadly, the company is underweight equities and is more favourable towards fixed income.
“I think bonds are a better defensive position today than the traditional defensive sectors are,” he said.
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
The specs: 2017 Dodge Viper SRT
Price, base / as tested Dh460,000
Engine 8.4L V10
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 645hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 813Nm @ 5,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 16.8L / 100km
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Results
Stage Two:
1. Mark Cavendish (GBR) QuickStep-AlphaVinyl 04:20:45
2. Jasper Philipsen (BEL) Alpecin-Fenix
3. Pascal Ackermann (GER) UAE Team Emirates
4. Olav Kooij (NED) Jumbo-Visma
5. Arnaud Demare (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
General Classification:
1. Jasper Philipsen (BEL) Alpecin-Fenix 09:03:03
2. Dmitry Strakhov (RUS) Gazprom-Rusvelo 00:00:04
3. Mark Cavendish (GBR) QuickStep-AlphaVinyl 00:00:06
4. Sam Bennett (IRL) Bora-Hansgrohe 00:00:10
5. Pascal Ackermann (GER) UAE Team Emirates 00:00:12
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Aaron Finch, Matt Renshaw, Brendan Doggett, Michael Neser, Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Mitchell Marsh, Tim Paine (captain), Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Jon Holland, Ashton Agar, Mitchell Starc, Peter Siddle
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMaly%20Tech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mo%20Ibrahim%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%20International%20Financial%20Centre%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241.6%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2015%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%2C%20planning%20first%20seed%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GCC-based%20angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
STAGE%201%20RESULTS
%3Cp%3E1)%20Tim%20Merlier%20(Soudal-Quick-Step)%2C%203h%2017%E2%80%99%2035%E2%80%9D%3Cbr%3E2)%20Caleb%20Ewan%20(Lotto%20Dstny)%20same%20time%3Cbr%3E3)%20Mark%20Cavendish%20(Astana%20Qazaqstan%20Team)%20same%20time%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeneral%20Classification%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1)%20Tim%20Merlier%20(Soudal%20Quick-Step)%203%3A17%3A25%3Cbr%3E2%20-%20Caleb%20Ewan%20(Lotto%20Dstny)%20%2B4%22%3Cbr%3E3%20-%20Luke%20Plapp%20(Ineos%20Grenadiers)%20%2B5%22%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20profile%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EElggo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20August%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Luma%20Makari%20and%20Mirna%20Mneimneh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Education%20technology%20%2F%20health%20technology%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESize%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Four%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Top tips to avoid cyber fraud
Microsoft’s ‘hacker-in-chief’ David Weston, creator of the tech company’s Windows Red Team, advises simple steps to help people avoid falling victim to cyber fraud:
1. Always get the latest operating system on your smartphone or desktop, as it will have the latest innovations. An outdated OS can erode away all investments made in securing your device or system.
2. After installing the latest OS version, keep it patched; this means repairing system vulnerabilities which are discovered after the infrastructure components are released in the market. The vast majority of attacks are based on out of date components – there are missing patches.
3. Multi-factor authentication is required. Move away from passwords as fast as possible, particularly for anything financial. Cybercriminals are targeting money through compromising the users’ identity – his username and password. So, get on the next level of security using fingertips or facial recognition.
4. Move your personal as well as professional data to the cloud, which has advanced threat detection mechanisms and analytics to spot any attempt. Even if you are hit by some ransomware, the chances of restoring the stolen data are higher because everything is backed up.
5. Make the right hardware selection and always refresh it. We are in a time where a number of security improvement processes are reliant on new processors and chip sets that come with embedded security features. Buy a new personal computer with a trusted computing module that has fingerprint or biometric cameras as additional measures of protection.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Emirates Cricket Board Women’s T10
ECB Hawks v ECB Falcons
Monday, April 6, 7.30pm, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
The match will be broadcast live on the My Sports Eye Facebook page
Hawks
Coach: Chaitrali Kalgutkar
Squad: Chaya Mughal (captain), Archara Supriya, Chamani Senevirathne, Chathurika Anand, Geethika Jyothis, Indhuja Nandakumar, Kashish Loungani, Khushi Sharma, Khushi Tanwar, Rinitha Rajith, Siddhi Pagarani, Siya Gokhale, Subha Srinivasan, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish
Falcons
Coach: Najeeb Amar
Squad: Kavisha Kumari (captain), Almaseera Jahangir, Annika Shivpuri, Archisha Mukherjee, Judit Cleetus, Ishani Senavirathne, Lavanya Keny, Mahika Gaur, Malavika Unnithan, Rishitha Rajith, Rithika Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Shashini Kaluarachchi, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Vaishnave Mahesh
Results
1. Mathieu van der Poel (NED) Alpecin-Fenix - 3:45:47
2. David Dekker (NED) Jumbo-Visma - same time
3. Michael Morkov (DEN) Deceuninck-QuickStep
4. Emils Liepins (LAT) Trek-Segafredo
5. Elia Viviani (ITA) Cofidis
6. Tadej Pogacar (SLO UAE Team Emirates
7. Anthony Roux (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
8. Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:00:03
9. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep
10. Fausto Masnada (ITA) Deceuninck-QuickStep
Roll%20of%20Honour%2C%20men%E2%80%99s%20domestic%20rugby%20season
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go
- The nearest international airport to the start of the Chuysky Trakt is in Novosibirsk. Emirates (www.emirates.com) offer codeshare flights with S7 Airlines (www.s7.ru) via Moscow for US$5,300 (Dh19,467) return including taxes. Cheaper flights are available on Flydubai and Air Astana or Aeroflot combination, flying via Astana in Kazakhstan or Moscow. Economy class tickets are available for US$650 (Dh2,400).
- The Double Tree by Hilton in Novosibirsk ( 7 383 2230100,) has double rooms from US$60 (Dh220). You can rent cabins at camp grounds or rooms in guesthouses in the towns for around US$25 (Dh90).
- The transport Minibuses run along the Chuysky Trakt but if you want to stop for sightseeing, hire a taxi from Gorno-Altaisk for about US$100 (Dh360) a day. Take a Russian phrasebook or download a translation app. Tour companies such as Altair-Tour ( 7 383 2125115 ) offer hiking and adventure packages.
Sanju
Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani
Director: Rajkumar Hirani
Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani
Rating: 3.5 stars
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Top 10 in the F1 drivers' standings
1. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 202 points
2. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes-GP 188
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes-GP 169
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull Racing 117
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 116
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing 67
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 56
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 45
9. Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso 35
10. Nico Hulkenberg, Renault 26
WHAT%20IS%20'JUICE%20JACKING'%3F
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Juice%20jacking%2C%20in%20the%20simplest%20terms%2C%20is%20using%20a%20rogue%20USB%20cable%20to%20access%20a%20device%20and%20compromise%20its%20contents%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20The%20exploit%20is%20taken%20advantage%20of%20by%20the%20fact%20that%20the%20data%20stream%20and%20power%20supply%20pass%20through%20the%20same%20cable.%20The%20most%20common%20example%20is%20connecting%20a%20smartphone%20to%20a%20PC%20to%20both%20transfer%20data%20and%20charge%20the%20former%20at%20the%20same%20time%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20The%20term%20was%20first%20coined%20in%202011%20after%20researchers%20created%20a%20compromised%20charging%20kiosk%20to%20bring%20awareness%20to%20the%20exploit%3B%20when%20users%20plugged%20in%20their%20devices%2C%20they%20received%20a%20security%20warning%20and%20discovered%20that%20their%20phones%20had%20paired%20to%20the%20kiosk%2C%20according%20to%20US%20cybersecurity%20company%20Norton%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20While%20juice%20jacking%20is%20a%20real%20threat%2C%20there%20have%20been%20no%20known%20widespread%20instances.%20Apple%20and%20Google%20have%20also%20added%20security%20layers%20to%20prevent%20this%20on%20the%20iOS%20and%20Android%20devices%2C%20respectively%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go...
Etihad flies daily from Abu Dhabi to Zurich, with fares starting from Dh2,807 return. Frequent high speed trains between Zurich and Vienna make stops at St. Anton.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
MATCH RESULT
Liverpool 4 Brighton and Hove Albion 0
Liverpool: Salah (26'), Lovren (40'), Solanke (53'), Robertson (85')
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
SERIE A FIXTURES
Saturday Spezia v Lazio (6pm), Juventus v Torino (9pm), Inter Milan v Bologna (7.45pm)
Sunday Verona v Cagliari (3.30pm), Parma v Benevento, AS Roma v Sassuolo, Udinese v Atalanta (all 6pm), Crotone v Napoli (9pm), Sampdoria v AC Milan (11.45pm)
Monday Fiorentina v Genoa (11.45pm)
Match statistics
Dubai Sports City Eagles 8 Dubai Exiles 85
Eagles
Try: Bailey
Pen: Carey
Exiles
Tries: Botes 3, Sackmann 2, Fourie 2, Penalty, Walsh, Gairn, Crossley, Stubbs
Cons: Gerber 7
Pens: Gerber 3
Man of the match: Tomas Sackmann (Exiles)
