The odds of an economic revival in China and a US Federal Reserve pivot this year are underpinning hopes of emerging-market bulls. The stage is set, they say, for a much overdue broad rally in the asset class.
Just don’t go all in yet.
Emerging-market equities were on track to enter a bull market while currencies on Monday rose to their highest since June, extending their best quarter since 2020. But there were some serious pockets of stress: Egypt’s latest devaluation signalled a fresh bout of volatility for its currency, while the Turkish lira reached an all-time low. Brazil faced turmoil too, with yields on its dollar bonds rising after supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro stormed the nation’s capital on Sunday, challenging the new leadership of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Brendan McKenna, a New York-based emerging-markets economist and foreign-exchange strategist at Wells Fargo Securities, is a believer in the asset class’s potential to outperform this year. The ability to tolerate pain in the short term, however, is needed. The best approach is to be “tactical and selective”, he said.
The short-term pain to which Mr McKenna alludes, particularly for emerging currencies, comes in part from the lack of clarity on the Fed’s path for interest rates. If anything, he said, the Fed is likely to keep raising interest rates, “eventually delivering more tightening than what financial markets are priced for”.
Should the Fed overdeliver and equity markets remain volatile, Mr McKenna is betting on outperformance in currencies associated with strong fundamentals, such as China’s yuan. He also likes those with still-hawkish central banks, such as the South African rand and Israel’s shekel.
Fragile currencies such as the Egyptian pound and the Turkish lira, meantime, may struggle, he said. In Colombia, a dovish central bank could also cause downwards pressure.
For some investors in riskier developing-economy assets, it’s not enough for the US central bank to pause rate hikes. It also needs to indicate it is about to start cutting them.
A strong signal will come from the US bond market: the steepening in the Treasury yield curve. That occurs when shorter-dated securities — the most sensitive to changes in policy — gain, pushing their yields down by more than those at the long end.
“At some point, a slower pace of monetary tightening would not be sufficient to extend the tactical rally into the medium term,” said Witold Bahrke, a Copenhagen-based senior macrostrategist at Nordea Investment. “We would need more tangible signs of a Fed pivot, ie, outright easing of monetary conditions.”
Mr Bahrke is looking for the gap between the two and 10-year maturities to widen to about 50 basis points, from about minus 70 basis points on Friday, before turning outright bullish on emerging markets. Developing-nation assets will lead a rebound in global markets once bulls start to dominate again, he said.
For Eurizon SLJ Capital money manager Alan Wilson, the Fed may pivot over the coming months, just as a policy-driven growth acceleration in China boosts demand for developing nations’ goods.
Local-currency debt — augmented by a buoyant outlook for developing currencies — will lead the way, followed by external debt, Mr Wilson said.
Of course, nothing is certain. After raising rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s, Fed officials issued an unusually blunt warning to investors, warning in recent meeting minutes against underestimating their will to keep interest rates high for some time.
Still, investors point out that developing-nation central banks have led global rate rises, helping to build a buffer against higher US real rates. Valuations are also attractive, particularly when growth differentials are factored in.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that the rate at which emerging markets grow faster than developed markets will increase by seven times to 3.5 percentage points this year. Should the US slip into a recession, investors chasing growth may have little doubt as to where they must go.
Emerging markets are also at an advanced stage of pricing risks. About $170 billion of portfolio money fled emerging markets between February and October, the longest and largest outflows since the global financial crisis, according to Deutsche Bank. About $104 billion accounted for the exodus from China’s local bonds and another $57 billion from North Asian equities, the bank said.
“If you’re underweight, you’ll never time the bottom. So, you could gradually add exposure since EM assets — from debt to equity to FX — are cheap, historically, by many metrics,” said Peter Marber, head of emerging markets at Aperture. “A recession in the US most likely will be shallow, and if anything, could lead to lower rates — all of which will likely keep propelling EM asset prices.”
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Elvis
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Baz%20Luhrmann%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Austin%20Butler%2C%20Tom%20Hanks%2C%20Olivia%20DeJonge%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
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%3Cp%3EThe%20influx%20of%20talented%20young%20Afghan%20players%20to%20UAE%20cricket%20could%20have%20a%20big%20impact%20on%20the%20fortunes%20of%20both%20countries.%20Here%20are%20three%20Emirates-based%20players%20to%20watch%20out%20for.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EHassan%20Khan%20Eisakhil%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMohammed%20Nabi%20is%20still%20proving%20his%20worth%20at%20the%20top%20level%20but%20there%20is%20another%20reason%20he%20is%20raging%20against%20the%20idea%20of%20retirement.%20If%20the%20allrounder%20hangs%20on%20a%20little%20bit%20longer%2C%20he%20might%20be%20able%20to%20play%20in%20the%20same%20team%20as%20his%20son%2C%20Hassan%20Khan.%20The%20family%20live%20in%20Ajman%20and%20train%20in%20Sharjah.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMasood%20Gurbaz%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20opening%20batter%2C%20who%20trains%20at%20Sharjah%20Cricket%20Academy%2C%20is%20another%20player%20who%20is%20a%20part%20of%20a%20famous%20family.%20His%20brother%2C%20Rahmanullah%2C%20was%20an%20IPL%20winner%20with%20Kolkata%20Knight%20Riders%2C%20and%20opens%20the%20batting%20with%20distinction%20for%20Afghanistan.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOmid%20Rahman%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20fast%20bowler%20became%20a%20pioneer%20earlier%20this%20year%20when%20he%20became%20the%20first%20Afghan%20to%20represent%20the%20UAE.%20He%20showed%20great%20promise%20in%20doing%20so%2C%20too%2C%20playing%20a%20key%20role%20in%20the%20senior%20team%E2%80%99s%20qualification%20for%20the%20Asia%20Cup%20in%20Muscat%20recently.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) US$100,000 (Dirt) 2,000m, Winner Bandar, Fernando Jara (jockey), Majed Al Jahouri (trainer).
7.05pm Meydan Classic Listed (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,600m, Winner Well Of Wisdom, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
7.40pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m, Winner Star Safari, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby.
8.15pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner Moqarrar, Fabrice Veron, Erwan Charpy.
8.50pm Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 2 (TB) $300,000 (T) 2,810m, Winner Secret Advisor, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
9.25pm Curlin Stakes Listed (TB) $175,000 (D) 2,000m, Winner Parsimony, William Buick, Doug O’Neill.
10pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m, Winner Simsir, Ronan Whelan, Michael Halford.
10.35pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m, Winner Velorum, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
THURSDAY'S ORDER OF PLAY
Centre Court
Starting at 10am:
Lucrezia Stefanini v Elena Rybakina (6)
Aryna Sabalenka (4) v Polona Hercog
Sofia Kenin (1) v Zhaoxuan Yan
Kristina Mladenovic v Garbine Muguruza (5)
Sorana Cirstea v Karolina Pliskova (3)
Jessica Pegula v Elina Svitolina (2)
Court 1
Starting at 10am:
Sara Sorribes Tormo v Nadia Podoroska
Marketa Vondrousova v Su-Wei Hsieh
Elise Mertens (7) v Alize Cornet
Tamara Zidansek v Jennifer Brady (11)
Heather Watson v Jodie Burrage
Vera Zvonareva v Amandine Hesse
Court 2
Starting at 10am:
Arantxa Rus v Xiyu Wang
Maria Kostyuk v Lucie Hradecka
Karolina Muchova v Danka Kovinic
Cori Gauff v Ulrikke Eikeri
Mona Barthel v Anastasia Gasanova
Court 3
Starting at 10am:
Kateryna Bondarenko v Yafan Wang
Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Anna Bondar
Bianca Turati v Yaroslava Shvedova
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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8 traditional Jamaican dishes to try at Kingston 21
- Trench Town Rock: Jamaican-style curry goat served in a pastry basket with a carrot and potato garnish
- Rock Steady Jerk Chicken: chicken marinated for 24 hours and slow-cooked on the grill
- Mento Oxtail: flavoured oxtail stewed for five hours with herbs
- Ackee and salt fish: the national dish of Jamaica makes for a hearty breakfast
- Jamaican porridge: another breakfast favourite, can be made with peanut, cornmeal, banana and plantain
- Jamaican beef patty: a pastry with ground beef filling
- Hellshire Pon di Beach: Fresh fish with pickles
- Out of Many: traditional sweet potato pudding
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
City's slump
L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Step by step
2070km to run
38 days
273,600 calories consumed
28kg of fruit
40kg of vegetables
45 pairs of running shoes
1 yoga matt
1 oxygen chamber
I Care A Lot
Directed by: J Blakeson
Starring: Rosamund Pike, Peter Dinklage
3/5 stars
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
