The global buyback binge looks to be drawing to a close, and investors are unlikely to mourn the end of the record repurchase rush.
That is because executives would be well-advised to keep their powder dry, given rising interest rates, jittery consumers and mounting recession fears, according to fund managers.
Goldman Sachs Group strategists said that buybacks peaked in the first quarter and cut their outlook for S&P 500 repurchases by 10 per cent for 2023, citing the impact of margin contractions on earnings.
With companies coming off record buybacks, they can now focus on allocating their resources elsewhere, like mergers and acquisitions, long-term investments or cutting debt, said Kim Forrest, founder of Bokeh Capital Partners.
“If you’re heading into uncertain times and you’ve done big buybacks, you as a company can just tread water and your EPS [earnings per share] will go up or stay unchanged because now you have a smaller number of shares,” Ms Forrest said.
“It’s a way for companies to put their best foot forward.”
That is a view reflected in this month’s Bank of America global fund managers’ survey, which found that 60 per cent of investors want companies to improve balance sheets, while only 17 per cent advocate returning cash to shareholders.
For corporations, buybacks make sense right now.
Equities in Europe are the cheapest in 10 years, while those in the US sit on average long-term valuations with froth blown away by this year’s rout. That at a time when companies are showing near-record margins and have relatively clean balance sheets.
US companies are on track for a record $1.25 trillion of repurchases this year.
After that, buyback growth is set to slow as receding earnings growth, shrinking cash balances and recession fears are likely to constrain spending, Goldman strategists led by Ryan Hammond said.
Energy companies have led the buyback scorecard as their profits surged on higher oil prices, and now represent 5 per cent of total S&P 500 buybacks, up from less than 1 per cent in the first half of last year, according to Goldman.
But this trend is likely to be offset by a drop in financial companies’ share repurchases as they seek to meet capital requirements and prepare for an economic slump, the strategists said.
Among those energy majors that have made buyback announcements so far are TotalEnergies, which has a $7 billion share-buyback programme for 2022, while Shell said it will repurchase another $4bn of shares over the next three months, bringing the total repurchases for the year to $18.5bn.
In the US, other recent major buyback examples include defence contractor Lockheed Martin and aerospace technologies manufacturer L3Harris Technologies.
Tesla chief executive Elon Musk said the company could repurchase up to $10bn worth of shares in the next year.
In Europe, earnings season is setting the stage for an extension of what is already a record year for buybacks.
Among banks, UBS Group said it plans a “material” programme next year, while HSBC is considering repurchasing shares in the second half of 2023.
Chipmaker ASML Holding will update on the matter on November 11 after stronger-than-expected results. Cement maker Holcim said it will start a share buyback programme of as much as 2bn francs ($2bn) next month.
The UK has seen a particularly high level of buyback activity this year, with Imperial Brands joining in with the announcement of a £1bn programme.
But the outlook is deteriorating. Strategists at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley expect further earnings downgrades as rising costs of energy and wages pressure margins.
At least companies have the fallback that it is easier to reverse a repurchase programme than cut dividends.
Buybacks have also drawn certain scrutiny in Washington.
US President Joe Biden this month called on energy companies to plough their gains into production rather than giving more cash to shareholders.
A new 1 per cent tax on buybacks that will take effect next year will nix $1 from S&P 500 per-share profits in 2023, JP Morgan Chase's estimates show.
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Founders: Ines Mena, Claudia Ribas, Simona Agolini, Nourhan Hassan and Therese Hundt
Date started: January 2017, app launched November 2017
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Private/Retail/Leisure
Number of Employees: 18 employees, including full-time and flexible workers
Funding stage and size: Seed round completed Q4 2019 - $1m raised
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, 500 Startups, Vision Ventures, Seedstars, Mindshift Capital, Delta Partners Ventures, with support from the OQAL Angel Investor Network and UAE Business Angels
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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The%20Little%20Mermaid%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rob%20Marshall%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHalle%20Bailey%2C%20Jonah%20Hauer-King%2C%20Melissa%20McCarthy%2C%20Javier%20Bardem%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Brief scores:
Juventus 3
Dybala 6', Bonucci 17', Ronaldo 63'
Frosinone 0
MATCH INFO
Liverpool v Manchester City, Sunday, 8.30pm UAE
The biog
Favourite hobby: I love to sing but I don’t get to sing as much nowadays sadly.
Favourite book: Anything by Sidney Sheldon.
Favourite movie: The Exorcist 2. It is a big thing in our family to sit around together and watch horror movies, I love watching them.
Favourite holiday destination: The favourite place I have been to is Florence, it is a beautiful city. My dream though has always been to visit Cyprus, I really want to go there.
Who is Allegra Stratton?
- Previously worked at The Guardian, BBC’s Newsnight programme and ITV News
- Took up a public relations role for Chancellor Rishi Sunak in April 2020
- In October 2020 she was hired to lead No 10’s planned daily televised press briefings
- The idea was later scrapped and she was appointed spokeswoman for Cop26
- Ms Stratton, 41, is married to James Forsyth, the political editor of The Spectator
- She has strong connections to the Conservative establishment
- Mr Sunak served as best man at her 2011 wedding to Mr Forsyth
Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
OPTA'S PREDICTED TABLE
1. Liverpool 101 points
2. Manchester City 80
3. Leicester 67
4. Chelsea 63
5. Manchester United 61
6. Tottenham 58
7. Wolves 56
8. Arsenal 56
9. Sheffield United 55
10. Everton 50
11. Burnley 49
12. Crystal Palace 49
13. Newcastle 46
14. Southampton 44
15. West Ham 39
16. Brighton 37
17. Watford 36
18. Bournemouth 36
19. Aston Villa 32
20. Norwich City 29
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
BELGIUM%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EGoalkeepers%3A%20Thibaut%20Courtois%2C%20Simon%20Mignolet%2C%20Koen%20Casteels%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EDefenders%3A%20Jan%20Vertonghen%2C%20Toby%20Alderweireld%2C%20Leander%20Dendoncker%2C%20Zeno%20Debast%2C%20Arthur%20Theate%2C%20Wout%20Faes%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMidfielders%3A%20Hans%20Vanaken%2C%20Axel%20Witsel%2C%20Youri%20Tielemans%2C%20Amadou%20Onana%2C%20Kevin%20De%20Bruyne%2C%20Yannick%20Carrasco%2C%20Thorgan%20Hazard%2C%20Timothy%20Castagne%2C%20Thomas%20Meunier%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EForwards%3A%20Romelu%20Lukaku%2C%20Michy%20Batshuayi%2C%20Lo%C3%AFs%20Openda%2C%20Charles%20De%20Ketelaere%2C%20Eden%20Hazard%2C%20Jeremy%20Doku%2C%20Dries%20Mertens%2C%20Leandro%20Trossard%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Dubai Rugby Sevens
November 30, December 1-2
International Vets
Christina Noble Children’s Foundation fixtures
Thursday, November 30:
10.20am, Pitch 3, v 100 World Legends Project
1.20pm, Pitch 4, v Malta Marauders
Friday, December 1:
9am, Pitch 4, v SBA Pirates
The Abu Dhabi Awards explained:
What are the awards? They honour anyone who has made a contribution to life in Abu Dhabi.
Are they open to only Emiratis? The awards are open to anyone, regardless of age or nationality, living anywhere in the world.
When do nominations close? The process concludes on December 31.
How do I nominate someone? Through the website.
When is the ceremony? The awards event will take place early next year.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Brief scores:
England: 290 & 346
Sri Lanka: 336 & 243
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Fixtures:
Thursday:
Hatta v Al Jazira, 4.55pm
Al Wasl v Dibba, 7.45pm
Friday:
Al Dhafra v Al Nasr, 5.05pm
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al Wahda, 7.45pm
Saturday:
Ajman v Emirates, 4.55pm
Al Ain v Sharjah, 7.45pm
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
1st Test July 26-30 in Galle
2nd Test August 3-7 in Colombo
3rd Test August 12-16 in Pallekele
The BIO:
He became the first Emirati to climb Mount Everest in 2011, from the south section in Nepal
He ascended Mount Everest the next year from the more treacherous north Tibetan side
By 2015, he had completed the Explorers Grand Slam
Last year, he conquered K2, the world’s second-highest mountain located on the Pakistan-Chinese border
He carries dried camel meat, dried dates and a wheat mixture for the final summit push
His new goal is to climb 14 peaks that are more than 8,000 metres above sea level
