India's economy and equity markets are outperforming most of their global peers. Despite a slew of challenges including macroeconomic headwinds stemming from Russia's war in Ukraine, elevated crude oil prices and tightening liquidity globally, the growth story of Asia's third-largest economy remains intact.
“The Indian economy and equity markets proved to be resilient and outperformed most developed and emerging economies globally, as it [the economy] is still growing at one of the highest rates compared to most others,” says Mitul Shah, head of research at Mumbai-based Reliance Securities.
India is projected to be among the fastest-growing economies in the world this year and the pace of growth it has achieved so far is impressive. However, its resilience does not mean it is immune to the inflation-fed global economic slowdown.
The International Monetary Fund this month cut India's gross domestic product growth forecast to 6.8 per cent for the current financial year to the end of March, from an earlier projection of 7.4 per cent.
The revised estimate is still significantly stronger than the IMF's growth estimates for the world's two largest economies — US at 1.6 per cent and China at 3.2 per cent.
The global economy is being battered by a multitude of factors and the world risks a recession in 2023 just as it tries to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said earlier this month.
In its latest outlook report this month, the fund kept its global economic estimate for this year at 3.2 per cent but downgraded next year's forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7 per cent.
Inflation in particular has been damaging, soaring to its highest levels in four decades, forcing central banks around the world to aggressively raise policy rates to temper it, which could further slow down growth and stoke fears of a recession.
“Globally every major economy is battling inflation,” says Sumit Chanda, chief executive and founder of Jarvis Invest, an artificial intelligence-based equity portfolio advisory platform. “What works for India is the fact that since we are consumption driven — and that too with favourable demographics — domestic demand is never an issue.”
India is due to overtake China next year as the world's most populous country with more than 1.4 billion people, according to the UN.
There are external factors that are working to India's advantage, too.
“Commodity prices have eased off due to slowdown in global demand, which has worked in our favour,” says Mr Chanda. “We have also been witnessing the 'China-plus-one' trend that has augured well for our manufacturing sector.”
India's stock markets have also avoided falls in major equity indexes, with the benchmark BSE Sensex recording small gains since the beginning of the year. By contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 15 per cent, while the Hang Seng index is down more than 30 per cent.
“The Indian economy, as well as the Indian equity markets, have so far ‘decoupled’ this year,” said a research note by Julius Baer, a Swiss private banking group. “This decoupling has happened despite all the possible global headwinds.”
“The key reasons for the outperformance is that India is one of the few large economies globally which are growing faster than peers, coupled with significant turnaround in the earnings of India Inc,” the report said.
Indian stocks have managed to avoid a slump, despite a record outflow of funds of foreign portfolio investors this year, triggered by a strong US dollar and the US Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate increases that drive capital flows to the greenback.
Domestic investment into equities is what has largely saved the Indian benchmarks to avoid major declines.
“In the Indian markets, the domestic flow into equities is extremely high,” says Amit Jain, co-founder of Ashika Global Family Office Services. “If you observe the figures, foreign investors have sold about 2 trillion rupees ($2.42 billion) in the last year and this has been bought by Indian domestic investors.”
The surge in domestic investment is supported by a positive outlook for earnings, helped by a pickup in consumer demand in India after Covid-19 restrictions were eased, which has facilitated a recovery in the economy, analysts say.
“India is a domestic-orientated economy and consumption looks very strong”, at the moment, says Mr Jain.
Spending trends during the ongoing Diwali festival, typically a time when Indians loosen their purse strings, are very promising and bode well for earnings growth, he says.
“The festival season is likely to add further [momentum] to the economy after two years of disruption and lockdown-led restrictions,” says Mr Shah. “The market witnessed strong demand for various consumer products in the first half of this financial year despite higher prices.”
Julius Baer says the rise in earnings for Indian companies at about 15.5 per cent compound annual growth rate over the next two years, “pegs India as one of the strongest earnings growth stories globally”.
“Stock price increases are intricately linked to growth in corporate profits,” says Rajiv Shastri, director and chief executive of NJ Asset Management.
“In addition, as a larger cross section of our population gets included into the financial markets, flows into equities are also expected to remain robust.”
The robust Indian corporate earnings outlook has driven domestic flows from both retail and institutional over the past few quarters, however, there are risks that could disrupt the investment momentum, Sandeep Bagla, chief executive of Trust Mutual Fund, says.
“There could be headwinds in the future as rates would [likely] be hiked across countries and the inflation could persist”, longer than many anticipate, he says.
For Mr Shah “the biggest risk” is the depreciating Indian rupee against the US dollar which is exacerbating imported inflation, as imports from overseas become more costly with the unfavourable exchange rate. Indian rupees hit an all-time low of 83 against the dollar last week and some analysts expect it to slide further.
“This may stretch our dollar outflow and forex reserve getting impacted going forward,” says Mr Shah. “Sharp weakening of [the] domestic currency and high inflation … may prove to be [a] major drag on [the] economy and equity markets.”
This is a critical area for India given that the country imports crude to meet most of its energy needs.
We are cautiously bullish with regard to the Indian stock markets keeping the next two to three-year horizon in mind
Amit Jain,
co-founder of Ashika Global Family Office Services
“Access to cheap fuel is crucial for India's stability,” says Mr Shastri. “If that is disrupted, we may see a wrinkle in an otherwise smooth ride.”
Rising consumer prices continues to be an area of concern in India, particularly after the most recent government data showed retail inflation hitting 7.41 per cent in September, a five-month high.
Global supply and energy and food prices-driven inflation is also a threat to Indian corporate that may fail to “deliver earnings growth in lines with expectations,” as the economy slows, says Nitasha Shankar, head of premium research service at Yes Securities.
But the positives outweigh the negatives for now.
“We believe India continues to have good tailwinds including increasing credit growth, real GDP acceleration, goods and services tax collection, purchasing managers' index numbers, forex reserves, resilient agricultural sector, and a low external debt to GDP ratio,” says Ms Shankar.
Mr Jain also remains upbeat about the economic outlook, but says “export-orientated sectors may take a hit for some time until this global crisis and turmoil settles down”.
Barring any major upsets, he is also optimistic about the country's equities market.
“We are cautiously bullish with regard to the Indian stock markets keeping the next two to three-year horizon in mind,” says Mr Jain.
Globally, there is an increased stagflation risk for the world economy but “I believe that geopolitical risks are much higher than interest rate risks at the moment” he says.
“While the sentiment is positive, we should be careful that it doesn’t transform into euphoria,” Mr Chandra says.
“We haven’t completely decoupled from the challenges of the global macroeconomic front. Any setback here will have a material impact on our markets.”
'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Directed by: Shaka King
Starring: Daniel Kaluuya, Lakeith Stanfield, Jesse Plemons
Four stars
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
THE TWIN BIO
Their favourite city: Dubai
Their favourite food: Khaleeji
Their favourite past-time : walking on the beach
Their favorite quote: ‘we rise by lifting others’ by Robert Ingersoll
Premier League results
Saturday
Crystal Palace 1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2
Cardiff City 2 West Ham United 0
Huddersfield Town 0 Bournemouth 2
Leicester City 3 Fulham 1
Newcastle United 3 Everton 2
Southampton 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1
Manchester City 3 Watford 1
Sunday
Liverpool 4 Burnley 2
Chelsea 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers 1
Arsenal 2 Manchester United 0
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
Emiratisation at work
Emiratisation was introduced in the UAE more than 10 years ago
It aims to boost the number of citizens in the workforce particularly in the private sector.
Growing the number of Emiratis in the workplace will help the UAE reduce dependence on overseas workers
The Cabinet in December last year, approved a national fund for Emirati jobseekers and guaranteed citizens working in the private sector a comparable pension
President Sheikh Khalifa has described Emiratisation as “a true measure for success”.
During the UAE’s 48th National Day, Sheikh Khalifa named education, entrepreneurship, Emiratisation and space travel among cornerstones of national development
More than 80 per cent of Emiratis work in the federal or local government as per 2017 statistics
The Emiratisation programme includes the creation of 20,000 new jobs for UAE citizens
UAE citizens will be given priority in managerial positions in the government sphere
The purpose is to raise the contribution of UAE nationals in the job market and create a diverse workforce of citizens
Company%20profile
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Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Vikram%20Vedha
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Gayatri%2C%20Pushkar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hrithik%20Roshan%2C%20Saif%20Ali%20Khan%2C%20Radhika%20Apte%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What it means to be a conservationist
Who is Enric Sala?
Enric Sala is an expert on marine conservation and is currently the National Geographic Society's Explorer-in-Residence. His love of the sea started with his childhood in Spain, inspired by the example of the legendary diver Jacques Cousteau. He has been a university professor of Oceanography in the US, as well as working at the Spanish National Council for Scientific Research and is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Biodiversity and the Bio-Economy. He has dedicated his life to protecting life in the oceans. Enric describes himself as a flexitarian who only eats meat occasionally.
What is biodiversity?
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, all life on earth – including in its forests and oceans – forms a “rich tapestry of interconnecting and interdependent forces”. Biodiversity on earth today is the product of four billion years of evolution and consists of many millions of distinct biological species. The term ‘biodiversity’ is relatively new, popularised since the 1980s and coinciding with an understanding of the growing threats to the natural world including habitat loss, pollution and climate change. The loss of biodiversity itself is dangerous because it contributes to clean, consistent water flows, food security, protection from floods and storms and a stable climate. The natural world can be an ally in combating global climate change but to do so it must be protected. Nations are working to achieve this, including setting targets to be reached by 2020 for the protection of the natural state of 17 per cent of the land and 10 per cent of the oceans. However, these are well short of what is needed, according to experts, with half the land needed to be in a natural state to help avert disaster.
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
Bio
Born in Dubai in 1994
Her father is a retired Emirati police officer and her mother is originally from Kuwait
She Graduated from the American University of Sharjah in 2015 and is currently working on her Masters in Communication from the University of Sharjah.
Her favourite film is Pacific Rim, directed by Guillermo del Toro
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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THE APPRENTICE
Director: Ali Abbasi
Starring: Sebastian Stan, Maria Bakalova, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 3/5
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures
October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
