In a year of wild market swings, the third quarter of 2022 was a time when events took a truly extraordinary turn.
As the Federal Reserve ratcheted up its monetary policy tightening to tame the worst inflation in decades, US Treasury yields shot to their highest levels in more than a decade and stocks reversed a summer rally to plumb depths.
The S&P 500 is down nearly 25 per cent in the year-to-date, while yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which move inversely to bond prices, recently hit their highest level since 2008.
Outside the US, the soaring dollar spurred big declines in global currencies, pushing Japan to support the yen for the first time in years.
A slump in British government bond prices, meanwhile, forced the Bank of England to carry out temporary purchases of long-dated gilts.
Many investors are looking to the next three months with trepidation, betting the sell-off in US stocks will continue until there are signs the Fed is winning its battle against inflation.
Yet, the last quarter of the year has often been a beneficial time for US equities, spurring hopes that markets may have already seen the worst of the sell-off.
The strategy of buying stock market dips yielded rich rewards for investors in the past, but failed badly in 2022: the S&P 500 has rallied by 6 per cent or more four times this year and went on to make a low in each instance.
In the third quarter the index rose by nearly 14 per cent before reversing to make a two-year low in September after investors recalibrated their expectations for even more aggressive Fed tightening.
With several big Wall Street banks expecting the benchmark index to end the year below current levels — Bank of America and Goldman Sachs both recently published year-end targets of 3,600 — the outlook for dip-buying remains murky.
In addition, the current bear market, which has so far lasted 269 days and notched a peak-to-trough decline of about 25 per cent, is still relatively short and shallow compared with past drops.
Since 1950, the average bear market has lasted 391 days with an average peak-to-trough drop of 35.6 per cent, according to Yardeni Research.
Although equities have been volatile, the gyrations in bond markets have been comparatively worse.
The ICE BofAML US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index shot to its highest level since March 2020 as the ICE BofA US Treasury index is on track for its biggest annual drop on record.
By comparison, the Cboe Volatility Index — the so-called Wall Street “fear gauge” — has failed to scale its March peak.
Some investors believe stock turbulence will continue until bond markets calm down.
“I think there is a good scenario where once we get through the bond market violence, we get to a more tradable bottom (for stocks),” said Michael Purves, chief executive at Tallbacken Capital Advisers in New York.
Soaring US interest rates, a relatively robust American economy and investors' reach for safe haven amid a rise in financial market volatility has boosted the US dollar — to the detriment of other global currencies.
The greenback is up about 7 per cent for the quarter against a basket of currencies and stands near its highest level since May 2002.
The dollar’s strength has prompted the Bank of Japan to shore up the yen through interventions while also presenting an earnings headwind for US corporates.
“Market risk-takers are grappling with the double-barrelled threat of persistent dollar strength and dramatically higher interest rates,” Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said in a note.
Third-quarter earnings may present another obstacle to markets, as companies factor in everything from dollar-fuelled currency headwinds to supply chain issues.
Analysts have become more downbeat on third-quarter profit growth, with consensus estimates falling to 4.6 per cent from 7.2 per cent in early August, according to Refinitiv IBES.
So far, that is only slightly worse than the median 2.2 percentage point decline ahead of reporting periods historically, yet warnings from companies such as FedEX and Ford have hinted at what is to come.
The calendar may offer weary stock investors some hope.
The fourth quarter is historically the best period for returns for major US stock indexes, with the S&P 500 averaging a 4.2 per cent gain since 1949, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
SM Town Live is on Friday, April 6 at Autism Rocks Arena, Dubai. Tickets are Dh375 at www.platinumlist.net
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
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THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
Where to buy
Limited-edition art prints of The Sofa Series: Sultani can be acquired from Reem El Mutwalli at www.reemelmutwalli.com
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
New schools in Dubai
Results
6.30pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes Group Three US$200,000 (Turf) 2,000m; Winner: Ghaiyyath, William Buick (jockey), Charlie Appleby (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Cliffs Of Capri, Tadhg O’Shea, Jamie Osborne.
7.40pm: UAE Oaks Group Three $250,000 (Dirt) 1,900m; Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.15pm: Zabeel Mile Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Zakouski, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby.
8.50pm: Meydan Sprint Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,000m; Winner: Waady, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alaan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Parthi%20Duraisamy%20and%20Karun%20Kurien%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%247%20million%20raised%20in%20total%20%E2%80%94%20%242.5%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20and%20%244.5%20million%20in%20a%20pre-series%20A%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
South Africa World Cup squad
South Africa: Faf du Plessis (c), Hashim Amla, Quinton de Kock (w), JP Duminy, Imran Tahir, Aiden Markram, David Miller, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Kagiso Rabada, Tabraiz Shamsi, Dale Steyn, Rassie van der Dussen.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 611bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Price: upon application
On sale: now
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
Switching%20sides
%3Cp%3EMahika%20Gaur%20is%20the%20latest%20Dubai-raised%20athlete%20to%20attain%20top%20honours%20with%20another%20country.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVelimir%20Stjepanovic%20(Serbia%2C%20swimming)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBorn%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi%20and%20raised%20in%20Dubai%2C%20he%20finished%20sixth%20in%20the%20final%20of%20the%202012%20Olympic%20Games%20in%20London%20in%20the%20200m%20butterfly%20final.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJonny%20Macdonald%20(Scotland%2C%20rugby%20union)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBrought%20up%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi%20and%20represented%20the%20region%20in%20international%20rugby.%20When%20the%20Arabian%20Gulf%20team%20was%20broken%20up%20into%20its%20constituent%20nations%2C%20he%20opted%20to%20play%20for%20Scotland%20instead%2C%20and%20went%20to%20the%20Hong%20Kong%20Sevens.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESophie%20Shams%20(England%2C%20rugby%20union)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20daughter%20of%20an%20English%20mother%20and%20Emirati%20father%2C%20Shams%20excelled%20at%20rugby%20in%20Dubai%2C%20then%20after%20attending%20university%20in%20the%20UK%20played%20for%20England%20at%20sevens.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
3.5/5
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
