Central bankers are bent on tightening the monetary spigots even if something in financial markets breaks. After haywire cross-asset moves this week, that tipping point looks dangerously close.
As the S&P 500 plunged another 4.7 per cent over five days, bonds and currencies underwent historic gyrations that threaten to cause fresh havoc for stock investors already grappling with the lows of this bear market.
Treasury yields leapt above levels last seen more than a decade ago, with the speed of the sell-off proving frenetic even by the standards of a manic 2022.
The dollar soared to a two-decade high, tightening financial conditions for a slew of borrowers in the developed and emerging world while causing Japan to intervene to support the yen for the first time since 1998.
For good measure, UK bonds and the pound sank faster than any time in the past four decades — an in-tandem plunge typically seen in emerging-market trading — as Britain’s fiscal policymakers unleashed a risky new growth plan.
With more hawkish monetary action coming, get ready for all manner of freakish cross-asset moves in a world of thin liquidity from stocks to Treasuries.
“What we’re seeing is a massive spike in cross-asset volatility and it is leading to a deleveraging or derisking across all asset classes,” said Benjamin Dunn, president of Alpha Theory Advisers.
Whether risk models typically used by the big money can cope with what’s shaping up to be the fastest global monetary tightening campaign in the modern era is the big question.
If more big moves rock Wall Street and beyond, trading signals that guide how professional investors allocate money risk turning red — threatening more liquidations and volatility.
“Most models are not used to these several standard deviation moves we are seeing almost on a daily basis,” said Christian Hoffmann, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management.
“We’re not seeing a real liquidity crisis yet but the market remains incredibly fragile.”
There have been few signs of outright panic right now. But the danger lurks that a wave of selling spills into other assets.
Big asset managers operate under risk-management frameworks where rising volatility often necessitates the unloading of portfolios, a process sometimes referred to as a VAR shock in a reference to the value-at-risk model.
To Mr Dunn, Friday’s collapse in British bonds and currencies may have become an event risk that contributed to the rout in assets like oil and silver.
Yields in 10-year UK government bonds saw their biggest one-day jump on record after a tax-cut package fuelled concerns about inflation and further monetary tightening. The pound tumbled to the lowest level since 1985, sliding 3.5 per cent in the third-largest drop in 20 years.
“These look like forced liquidations,” Mr Dunn said.
Chaos is the signature feature of global markets in the pandemic era. But the widespread turmoil is a new experience for those investors who had enjoyed smooth returns built on free money in the previous decade.
Now, central banks around the world are racing each other to step up their fight against inflation at the cost of growth. Just this week, more than a dozen central banks moved to tighten monetary policy. Some were forced to hike rates to protect their dollar peg.
What we’re seeing is a massive spike in cross-asset volatility and it is leading to a deleveraging or derisking across all asset classes
Benjamin Dunn,
president of Alpha Theory Advisors
Suddenly, worries about whether there will be a recession have turned into bets on just how bad the pain will get. Traders ratcheted up wagers that signalled angst over a serious entrenchment, with the yield curve between two-year and 10-year Treasuries reaching the most negative level since early 2000.
Meanwhile, two-year Treasury yields have climbed for 12 straight days, a streak of losses not seen since at least 1976.
“When you’ve got the chief policymaker and others saying, ‘We’re going to inflict pain,’ that’s scary and it challenges anyone that had a more rosy picture,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank.
“It comes back to the confidence in policymakers to steer us through this and I think that’s been shaken.”
Buffeted by losses that have snowballed well past 20 per cent for both US bonds and stocks this year while uncertainty of the future of the economic path lingers, investors are seeking shelter in safe assets.
Cash-like funds attracted $30.2 billion in the week through Wednesday, while global equity and bond funds saw outflows of $7.8bn and $6.9bn, respectively, EPFR Global data compiled by Bank of America show.
Mubadala World Tennis Championship 2018 schedule
Thursday December 27
Men's quarter-finals
Kevin Anderson v Hyeon Chung 4pm
Dominic Thiem v Karen Khachanov 6pm
Women's exhibition
Serena Williams v Venus Williams 8pm
Friday December 28
5th place play-off 3pm
Men's semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Anderson/Chung 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Thiem/Khachanov 7pm
Saturday December 29
3rd place play-off 5pm
Men's final 7pm
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
The Greatest Royal Rumble card
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight ChampionshipAJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Rusev
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v Kalisto
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8
Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm
Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km
Price: Dh380,000
On sale: now
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
More coverage from the Future Forum
The bio
Favourite vegetable: Broccoli
Favourite food: Seafood
Favourite thing to cook: Duck l'orange
Favourite book: Give and Take by Adam Grant, one of his professors at University of Pennsylvania
Favourite place to travel: Home in Kuwait.
Favourite place in the UAE: Al Qudra lakes
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Naga
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMeshal%20Al%20Jaser%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdwa%20Bader%2C%20Yazeed%20Almajyul%2C%20Khalid%20Bin%20Shaddad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Selected fixtures
All times UAE
Wednesday
Poland v Portugal 10.45pm
Russia v Sweden 10.45pm
Friday
Belgium v Switzerland 10.45pm
Croatia v England 10.45pm
Saturday
Netherlands v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Denmark 10.45pm
Sunday
Poland v Italy 10.45pm
Monday
Spain v England 10.45pm
Tuesday
France v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Wales 10.45pm
How to vote
Canadians living in the UAE can register to vote online and be added to the International Register of Electors.
They'll then be sent a special ballot voting kit by mail either to their address, the Consulate General of Canada to the UAE in Dubai or The Embassy of Canada in Abu Dhabi
Registered voters mark the ballot with their choice and must send it back by 6pm Eastern time on October 21 (2am next Friday)
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last 16, first leg
Ajax v Real Madrid, midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
EMIRATES'S%20REVISED%20A350%20DEPLOYMENT%20SCHEDULE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEdinburgh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20November%204%20%3Cem%3E(unchanged)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBahrain%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20November%2015%20%3Cem%3E(from%20September%2015)%3C%2Fem%3E%3B%20second%20daily%20service%20from%20January%201%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EKuwait%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20November%2015%20%3Cem%3E(from%20September%2016)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMumbai%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%201%20%3Cem%3E(from%20October%2027)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAhmedabad%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%201%20%3Cem%3E(from%20October%2027)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColombo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202%20%3Cem%3E(from%20January%201)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMuscat%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cem%3E%20%3C%2Fem%3EMarch%201%3Cem%3E%20(from%20December%201)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELyon%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20March%201%20%3Cem%3E(from%20December%201)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBologna%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20March%201%20%3Cem%3E(from%20December%201)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Emirates%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
more from Janine di Giovanni
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Green ambitions
- Trees: 1,500 to be planted, replacing 300 felled ones, with veteran oaks protected
- Lake: Brown's centrepiece to be cleaned of silt that makes it as shallow as 2.5cm
- Biodiversity: Bat cave to be added and habitats designed for kingfishers and little grebes
- Flood risk: Longer grass, deeper lake, restored ponds and absorbent paths all meant to siphon off water
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2-litre%204-cylinder%20mild%20hybrid%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20S%20tronic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E265hp%20%2F%20195kW%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20370Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh260%2C000%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
