The value of the Egyptian pound is expected to fall further after reaching a near all-time low of 19 to the US dollar this week, according to analysts.
The pound slid to 19 on Monday and was trading between 19.01 and 19.07 to the greenback on Tuesday afternoon, Refinitiv data showed.
It is the lowest since December 2016 when the pound hit 19.3 to the dollar after a drastic devaluation that preceded an economic reforms programme backed by the International Monetary Fund.
Analysts forecast that the currency will reach up to 21 to the dollar by the end of this year, as the Arab world’s most populous country grapples with the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war.
“This [the downward trend] has been happening for the last month and a half. We had gone down from 18.17 to about 18.25 and then from 18.25, we never looked back. And we expect that trend to continue,” Allen Sandeep, director of research at Cairo-based Naeem Holding, told The National.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Egypt has suffered soaring inflation and falling foreign currency reserves. The two warring countries account for the majority of Egypt’s wheat imports and a big chunk of its tourists.
In March, Egypt allowed its currency to depreciate more than 14 per cent from 15.7 pounds to the dollar, the rate at which it had traded since November 2020.
By devaluing the pound, it sought to boost the competitiveness of its exports and better position itself for a new loan from the IMF.
However, it has not been enough to offset high commodity prices and the flight of foreign direct investments.
“We’re in a situation where even if we depreciate by a large degree … the current circumstances globally do not encourage non-oil FDI,” Mr Sandeep said.
Egypt’s core annual inflation rate increased to 14.6 per cent in June from 13.3 per cent in May, the highest since 2017, according to central bank figures.
Foreign currency reserves fell more than $7 billion in April and May and totalled $33.4bn at the end of June.
Businesses in the Egyptian non-oil economy recorded weaker performance in July, as output and new orders declined, albeit at slower rates compared with June. The S&P Global Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index reached 46.4 last month, well below the 50 neutral mark.
“This kind of a situation, with all these factors happening at the same time, is unprecedented for Egypt,” Mr Sandeep said.
“We have a growing current account deficit of $20bn and we are also faced with another problem, which is maturing external debt repayments, which comes up to about $15bn for the next 12 months,” he said.
Egypt’s current account deficit stood at 4.3 per cent of GDP on a four-quarter sum basis in the first quarter, according to a recent research note from Capital Economics.
Its foreign currency debt is about a quarter of the government’s overall debt burden. The weakening of the pound will “basically increase the cost of servicing the debt”, James Swanston, Mena economist at Capital Economics, told The National.
Headline inflation will remain elevated and is expected to hit close to 20 per cent by the end of this year, he said.
“A 5 per cent to 10 per cent weakening of the pound would be required,” Mr Swanston said, leading Capital Economics to forecast a depreciation to 21 to the dollar by the end of this year and a further 16 per cent fall to 25 by the end of 2024.
The consensus expects a much smaller depreciation, the report noted. Naeem Holding forecasts the pound will hit 20 to the dollar by the end of this year and 20.50 in 2023.
The Central Bank of Egypt seems to be shifting to a more flexible exchange rate regime that allows market forces to dictate how the pound moves, rather than staying flat.
“The IMF has said a flexible exchange rate is very much needed,” Mr Swanston said.
Egypt and the IMF have been in negotiations since March, but in a note released on July 26, the Washington-based lender said Egypt must make “decisive progress” on fiscal and structural reforms to ultimately receive more financial support from the fund.
“We assume that Egypt’s external funding conditions will improve as an agreement on an IMF programme is eventually reached later this year,” Krisjanis Krustins, director at Fitch Ratings, told The National. “However, we also expect gradual depreciation from current levels, amid continued high ― albeit declining ― current account deficits and inflation.”
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
What's in the deal?
Agreement aims to boost trade by £25.5bn a year in the long run, compared with a total of £42.6bn in 2024
India will slash levies on medical devices, machinery, cosmetics, soft drinks and lamb.
India will also cut automotive tariffs to 10% under a quota from over 100% currently.
Indian employees in the UK will receive three years exemption from social security payments
India expects 99% of exports to benefit from zero duty, raising opportunities for textiles, marine products, footwear and jewellery
MATCH INFO
Who: France v Italy
When: Friday, 11pm (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Company name: Play:Date
Launched: March 2017 on UAE Mother’s Day
Founder: Shamim Kassibawi
Based: Dubai with operations in the UAE and US
Sector: Tech
Size: 20 employees
Stage of funding: Seed
Investors: Three founders (two silent co-founders) and one venture capital fund
SUCCESSION%20SEASON%204%20EPISODE%201
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreated%20by%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJesse%20Armstrong%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Brian%20Cox%2C%20Jeremy%20Strong%2C%20Kieran%20Culkin%2C%20Sarah%20Snook%2C%20Nicholas%20Braun%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS: 2018 WORLD CUP QUALIFYING - EUROPE
Albania 0 Italy 1
Finland 2 Turkey 2
Macedonia 4 Liechtenstein
Iceland 2 Kosovo 0
Israel 0 Spain 1
Moldova 0 Austria 1
Serbia 1 Georgia 0
Ukraine 0 Croatia 2
Wales 0 Ireland 1
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
What is a robo-adviser?
Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.
These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.
Investing in ETFs allows robo-advisers to offer fees far lower than traditional investments, such as actively managed mutual funds bought through a bank or broker. Investors can buy ETFs directly via a brokerage, but with robo-advisers they benefit from investment portfolios matched to their risk tolerance as well as being user friendly.
Many robo-advisers charge what are called wrap fees, meaning there are no additional fees such as subscription or withdrawal fees, success fees or fees for rebalancing.
School counsellors on mental well-being
Schools counsellors in Abu Dhabi have put a number of provisions in place to help support pupils returning to the classroom next week.
Many children will resume in-person lessons for the first time in 10 months and parents previously raised concerns about the long-term effects of distance learning.
Schools leaders and counsellors said extra support will be offered to anyone that needs it. Additionally, heads of years will be on hand to offer advice or coping mechanisms to ease any concerns.
“Anxiety this time round has really spiralled, more so than from the first lockdown at the beginning of the pandemic,” said Priya Mitchell, counsellor at The British School Al Khubairat in Abu Dhabi.
“Some have got used to being at home don’t want to go back, while others are desperate to get back.
“We have seen an increase in depressive symptoms, especially with older pupils, and self-harm is starting younger.
“It is worrying and has taught us how important it is that we prioritise mental well-being.”
Ms Mitchell said she was liaising more with heads of year so they can support and offer advice to pupils if the demand is there.
The school will also carry out mental well-being checks so they can pick up on any behavioural patterns and put interventions in place to help pupils.
At Raha International School, the well-being team has provided parents with assessment surveys to see how they can support students at home to transition back to school.
“They have created a Well-being Resource Bank that parents have access to on information on various domains of mental health for students and families,” a team member said.
“Our pastoral team have been working with students to help ease the transition and reduce anxiety that [pupils] may experience after some have been nearly a year off campus.
"Special secondary tutorial classes have also focused on preparing students for their return; going over new guidelines, expectations and daily schedules.”
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
RESULT
Arsenal 1 Chelsea 2
Arsenal: Aubameyang (13')
Chelsea: Jorginho (83'), Abraham (87')
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
JAPAN SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Masaaki Higashiguchi, Shuichi Gonda, Daniel Schmidt
Defenders: Yuto Nagatomo, Tomoaki Makino, Maya Yoshida, Sho Sasaki, Hiroki Sakai, Sei Muroya, Genta Miura, Takehiro Tomiyasu
Midfielders: Toshihiro Aoyama, Genki Haraguchi, Gaku Shibasaki, Wataru Endo, Junya Ito, Shoya Nakajima, Takumi Minamino, Hidemasa Morita, Ritsu Doan
Forwards: Yuya Osako, Takuma Asano, Koya Kitagawa
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Ferrari
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Michael%20Mann%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Adam%20Driver%2C%20Penelope%20Cruz%2C%20Shailene%20Woodley%2C%20Patrick%20Dempsey%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
SUE%20GRAY'S%20FINDINGS
%3Cp%3E%22Whatever%20the%20initial%20intent%2C%20what%20took%20place%20at%20many%20of%20these%20gatherings%20and%20the%3Cbr%3Eway%20in%20which%20they%20developed%20was%20not%20in%20line%20with%20Covid%20guidance%20at%20the%20time.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%22Many%20of%20these%20events%20should%20not%20have%20been%20allowed%20to%20happen.%20It%20is%20also%20the%20case%20that%20some%20of%20the%3Cbr%3Emore%20junior%20civil%20servants%20believed%20that%20their%20involvement%20in%20some%20of%20these%20events%20was%20permitted%20given%20the%20attendance%20of%20senior%20leaders.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%22The%20senior%20leadership%20at%20the%20centre%2C%20both%20political%20and%20official%2C%20must%20bear%20responsibility%20for%20this%20culture.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%22I%20found%20that%20some%20staff%20had%20witnessed%20or%20been%20subjected%20to%20behaviours%20at%20work%20which%20they%20had%20felt%20concerned%20about%20but%20at%20times%20felt%20unable%20to%20raise%20properly.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%22I%20was%20made%20aware%20of%20multiple%20examples%20of%20a%20lack%20of%20respect%20and%20poor%20treatment%20of%20security%20and%20cleaning%20staff.%20This%20was%20unacceptable.%22%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
FA Cup semi-finals
Saturday: Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur, 8.15pm (UAE)
Sunday: Chelsea v Southampton, 6pm (UAE)
Matches on Bein Sports
Results
5pm: Warsan Lake – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m; Winner: Dhaw Al Reef, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)
5.30pm: Al Quadra Lake – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Mrouwah Al Gharbia, Sando Paiva, Abubakar Daud
6pm: Hatta Lake – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: AF Yatroq, George Buckell, Ernst Oertel
6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Adries de Vries, Ibrahim Aseel
7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship – Listed (PA) Dh180,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Zakher Lake – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Alfareeq, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi.
Most%20polluted%20cities%20in%20the%20Middle%20East
%3Cp%3E1.%20Baghdad%2C%20Iraq%3Cbr%3E2.%20Manama%2C%20Bahrain%3Cbr%3E3.%20Dhahran%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%3Cbr%3E4.%20Kuwait%20City%2C%20Kuwait%3Cbr%3E5.%20Ras%20Al%20Khaimah%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E6.%20Ash%20Shihaniyah%2C%20Qatar%3Cbr%3E7.%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E8.%20Cairo%2C%20Egypt%3Cbr%3E9.%20Riyadh%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%3Cbr%3E10.%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%202022%20World%20Air%20Quality%20Report%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MOST%20POLLUTED%20COUNTRIES%20IN%20THE%20WORLD
%3Cp%3E1.%20Chad%3Cbr%3E2.%20Iraq%3Cbr%3E3.%20Pakistan%3Cbr%3E4.%20Bahrain%3Cbr%3E5.%20Bangladesh%3Cbr%3E6.%20Burkina%20Faso%3Cbr%3E7.%20Kuwait%3Cbr%3E8.%20India%3Cbr%3E9.%20Egypt%3Cbr%3E10.%20Tajikistan%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%202022%20World%20Air%20Quality%20Report%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SPIDER-MAN%3A%20ACROSS%20THE%20SPIDER-VERSE
%3Cp%3EDirectors%3A%20Joaquim%20Dos%20Santos%2C%20Kemp%20Powers%2C%20Justin%20K.%20Thompson%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Shameik%20Moore%2C%20Hailee%20Steinfeld%2C%20Oscar%20Isaac%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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!['Prices are still the same over the past 10 days or two weeks. There are goods now sold at somehow reduced prices in government-owned shops in order to beat [traders] who raise prices, who use this opportunity [currency devaluation] to raise prices. This is a good step by the government to support citizens,' said one Egyptian citizen. Reuters](https://www.thenationalnews.com/resizer/v2/6FR37B5P2FDHRMIUE5FEQWVGIA.JPG?smart=true&auth=d7d5cc1adc349847e83833f41bc5cbb1dbdfcedd80a2890f417d4d0617bf5958&width=800&height=450)
