Whipsawing bond yields, oil prices and a Federal Reserve bent on squashing the worst inflation in four decades are hampering investors' ability to assess US stock valuations, even as the market's tumble creates potential bargains.
Without a doubt, stocks are far cheaper than at the start of the year, following a 23 per cent year-to-date decline in the S&P 500 that confirmed a bear market for the index earlier this week.
Whether they are cheap enough, however, is less certain. Market volatility and a rapidly changing macroeconomic landscape have clouded metrics that investors typically use to value stocks, such as corporate earnings and Treasury yields, keeping some potential buyers on the sideline.
"Until we see some better visibility on the rates outlook and some better visibility on the earnings outlook, the fair value for equities is a little bit elusive," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The institute recently started recommending clients reduce equity risk and move funds into fixed income.
Stocks came under more pressure this week, with the S&P 500 falling to its lowest since late 2020, in the wake of the Fed enacting its largest rate-hike in nearly three decades.
This year's decline lowered the index's forward price-to-earnings ratio, which compares its price with its expected profits, to 17.3, from 21.7 at the start of 2022 — closer to the market's historic average of 15.5, according to Refinitiv Datastream.
But while S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise nearly 10 per cent in 2022, according to Refinitiv IBES, some market participants doubt those estimates will hold up in the face of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions.
Wells Fargo institute strategists forecast positive but slowing earnings growth this year and a contraction in 2023, as they expect a recession in late 2022 and early 2023.
"We are advocating to investors to consider an economy and an earnings backdrop that may be more challenging ... so just don't be fooled by where valuations are based off of today's expectations," said Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors, who is recommending clients continue to underweight equities.
Morgan Stanley analysts expect earnings to come in between 3-5 per cent below consensus views, leading them to forecast that the S&P 500 is likely to see a "more reliable level of support" at 3,400, some 8 per cent below Friday's level, they wrote earlier this week.
US Treasury yields also play an important role in standard valuation models. Since US debt is seen as a relatively risk-free investment, rising yields tend to dull the allure of stocks, as they weaken the value of future cash flows in standard models.
Yet shifting expectations for how hawkish the Fed will need to be to fight inflation have made yields exceptionally volatile in recent weeks, making that calculus harder for investors.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has traded in a nearly 35 basis point range just this week, while the ICE BoFAML Move Index, which measures Treasury market volatility, stands at its highest level since March 2020.
Broadly speaking, "the risk-free rate rising like it has is a headwind for equity indexes as well as individual equities", Mr Morganlander said.
Some investors believe stocks have fallen low enough to start dipping in.
Peter Essele, head of portfolio management at Commonwealth Financial Network, is advising clients to gradually begin buying stocks, projecting that an oversupply of home-furnishing and other consumer goods along with changing demand preferences will end up moderating prices.
"I just think that equities have inflation wrong," Mr Essele said.
Fed chairman Jerome Powell, who this week called inflation "much too high," will give an updated view on the environment when he testifies next week before a US Senate committee.
Others remain hesitant.
Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth, believes an inflation fix may not be imminent. He has lower-than-typical equity exposure in portfolios he manages and is more heavily weighted to defensive stocks and those linked to inflation such as energy.
"I want to be convinced that inflation is showing signs of slowing down," Mr Pavlik said. "Until then, I am waiting on the sidelines with extra cash."
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ovasave%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20November%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Majd%20Abu%20Zant%20and%20Torkia%20Mahloul%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Healthtech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Three%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24400%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Profile Idealz
Company: Idealz
Founded: January 2018
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Size: (employees): 22
Investors: Co-founders and Venture Partners (9 per cent)
match info
Maratha Arabians 138-2
C Lynn 91*, A Lyth 20, B Laughlin 1-15
Team Abu Dhabi 114-3
L Wright 40*, L Malinga 0-13, M McClenaghan 1-17
Maratha Arabians won by 24 runs
More on Quran memorisation:
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
The%20specs
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Tuesday results:
- Singapore bt Malaysia by 29 runs
- UAE bt Oman by 13 runs
- Hong Kong bt Nepal by 3 wickets
Final:
Thursday, UAE v Hong Kong
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
Tips%20for%20holiday%20homeowners
%3Cp%3EThere%20are%20several%20factors%20for%20landlords%20to%20consider%20when%20preparing%20to%20establish%20a%20holiday%20home%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3ERevenue%20potential%20of%20the%20unit%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20location%2C%20view%20and%20size%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EDesign%3A%20furnished%20or%20unfurnished.%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Is%20the%20design%20up%20to%20standard%2C%20while%20being%20catchy%20at%20the%20same%20time%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EBusiness%20model%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20will%20it%20be%20managed%20by%20a%20professional%20operator%20or%20directly%20by%20the%20owner%2C%20how%20often%20does%20the%20owner%20wants%20to%20use%20it%20for%20personal%20reasons%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuality%20of%20the%20operator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20guest%20reviews%2C%20customer%20experience%20management%2C%20application%20of%20technology%2C%20average%20utilisation%2C%20scope%20of%20services%20rendered%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Adam%20Nowak%2C%20managing%20director%20of%20Ultimate%20Stay%20Vacation%20Homes%20Rental%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A Bad Moms Christmas
Dir: John Lucas and Scott Moore
Starring: Mila Kunis, Kathryn Hahn, Kristen Bell, Susan Sarandon, Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines
Two stars
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The biog
Hobbies: Salsa dancing “It's in my blood” and listening to music in different languages
Favourite place to travel to: “Thailand, as it's gorgeous, food is delicious, their massages are to die for!”
Favourite food: “I'm a vegetarian, so I can't get enough of salad.”
Favourite film: “I love watching documentaries, and am fascinated by nature, animals, human anatomy. I love watching to learn!”
Best spot in the UAE: “I fell in love with Fujairah and anywhere outside the big cities, where I can get some peace and get a break from the busy lifestyle”
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More coverage from the Future Forum
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Zayed Sustainability Prize
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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