High inflation has been a factor forcing investors to reconsider the prices they are willing to pay for a range of stocks. AFP
High inflation has been a factor forcing investors to reconsider the prices they are willing to pay for a range of stocks. AFP
High inflation has been a factor forcing investors to reconsider the prices they are willing to pay for a range of stocks. AFP
High inflation has been a factor forcing investors to reconsider the prices they are willing to pay for a range of stocks. AFP

Business

Markets

What is a bear market and what does it mean for investors?

A late rally on Friday put the S&P 500 in the green, but with the prevailing sentiment remaining negative, the relief may be temporary

Associated Press

May 21, 2022

  • English
  • Arabic

The bear came close to Wall Street but then backed off.

The stock market’s slump this year briefly pulled the S&P 500 into what is known as a bear market on Friday, before a late rally put the index in the green. The prevailing sentiment among investors remains negative, however, so the relief may be temporary.

Read More

US inflation remains high as consumer price growth slows in April

Why inflation data won't make battered US stocks a bargain for investors

Rising interest rates, high inflation, the war in Ukraine and a slowdown in China's economy have caused investors to reconsider the prices they are willing to pay for a wide range of stocks, from high-flying tech companies to traditional carmakers. Big swings such as the one seen Friday have been common.

The last bear market happened two years ago, but this would still be a first for those investors that got their start trading on their phones during the pandemic. For years, thanks in large part to extraordinary actions by the Federal Reserve, stocks often seemed to go in only one direction: up.

Now, the familiar rallying cry to “buy the dip” after every market wobble is giving way to fear that the dip is turning into a crater.

Here are some common questions asked about bear markets.

Why is it called a bear market?

A bear market is a term used by Wall Street when an index like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, or even an individual stock, has fallen 20 per cent or more from a recent high for a sustained period of time.

Why use a bear to represent a market slump? Bears hibernate, so bears represent a market that's retreating, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. In contrast, Wall Street's nickname for a surging stock market is a bull market, because bulls charge, Mr Stovall said.

The S&P 500 index, Wall Street’s main barometer of health, rose less than 1 point on Friday, leaving it 18.7 per cent below its high set on January 3. The Nasdaq is already in a bear market, down 29.3 per cent from its peak of 16,057.44 on November 19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is about 15 per cent below its most recent peak.

The most recent bear market for the S&P 500 ran from February 19, 2020 through March 23, 2020. The index fell 34 per cent in that one-month period. It is the shortest bear market yet.

What's bothering investors?

Market enemy No 1 is interest rates, which are rising quickly as a result of the high inflation battering the economy. Low rates act like steroids for stocks and other investments, and Wall Street is now going through withdrawal.

The Federal Reserve has made an aggressive move away from propping up financial markets and the economy with record-low rates and is focused on fighting inflation. The central bank has already raised its key short-term interest rate from its record low near zero, which had encouraged investors to move their money into riskier assets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies to get better returns.

This month, the Fed signalled additional rate increases of double the usual amount are likely in coming months. Consumer prices are at the highest level in four decades, and rose 8.3 per cent in April compared with a year ago.

The moves by design will slow the economy by making it more expensive to borrow. The risk is the Fed could cause a recession if it raises rates too high or too quickly.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has also put upwards pressure on inflation by pushing up commodities prices. And worries about China’s economy, the world’s second largest, have added to the gloom.

Do we just need to avoid a recession?

Even if the Fed can pull off the delicate task of tamping down inflation without triggering a downturn, higher interest rates still put downwards pressure on stocks.

If customers are paying more to borrow money, they can’t buy as much stuff, so less revenue flows to a company’s bottom line. Stocks tend to track profits over time. Higher rates also make investors less willing to pay elevated prices for stocks, which are riskier than bonds, when bonds are suddenly paying more in interest thanks to the Fed.

Visitors wearing Lady Liberty souvenir headwear outside the New York Stock Exchange. The S&P 500 index, Wall Street’s main barometer of health, rose less than 1 point on Friday, leaving it 18.7 per cent below its high set on January 3. AP
Visitors wearing Lady Liberty souvenir headwear outside the New York Stock Exchange. The S&P 500 index, Wall Street’s main barometer of health, rose less than 1 point on Friday, leaving it 18.7 per cent below its high set on January 3. AP

Critics said the overall stock market came into the year looking pricey versus history. Big technology stocks and other winners of the pandemic were seen as the most expensive, and those stocks have been the most punished as rates have risen. But the pain is spreading widely, with shares of Target and other retailers slumping hard this week after reporting weaker-than-expected profits.

Stocks have declined almost 35 per cent on average when a bear market coincides with a recession, compared with a nearly 24 per cent drop when the economy avoids a recession, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.

Should investors sell everything now?

If you need the money now or want to lock in the losses, yes. Otherwise, many advisers suggest riding through the ups and downs while remembering the swings are the price of admission for the stronger returns that stocks have provided over the long term.

While dumping stocks would stop the bleeding, it would also prevent any potential gains. Many of the best days for Wall Street have occurred either during a bear market or just after the end of one. That includes two separate days in the middle of the 2007-2009 bear market where the S&P 500 surged roughly 11 per cent, as well as leaps of better than 9 per cent during and shortly after the roughly month-long 2020 bear market.

Advisers suggest putting money into stocks only if it will not be needed for several years. The S&P 500 has come back from every one of its prior bear markets to eventually rise to another all-time high.

The down decade for the stock market following the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble was a brutal stretch, but stocks have often been able to regain their highs within a few years.

How long do bear markets last and how deep do they go?

On average, bear markets have taken 13 months to go from peak to trough and 27 months to get back to break even since the Second World War.

The S&P 500 index has fallen an average of 33 per cent during bear markets in that time. The biggest decline since 1945 occurred in the 2007-2009 bear market when the S&P 500 fell 57 per cent.

History shows that the faster an index enters into a bear market, the shallower they tend to be. Historically, stocks have taken 251 days (8.3 months) to fall into a bear market. When the S&P 500 has fallen 20 per cent at a faster clip, the index has averaged a loss of 28 per cent.

The longest bear market lasted 61 months and ended in March 1942 and cut the index by 60 per cent.

How do we know when a bear market has ended?

Generally, investors look for a 20 per cent gain from a low point as well as sustained gains over at least a six-month period. It took less than three weeks for stocks to rise 20 per cent from their low in March 2020.

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We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.

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The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index

Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.

The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.

“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.

“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”

Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.

Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.

“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.

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5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: AF Musannef, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

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Tearful appearance

Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday. 

Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow. 

She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.

A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.

UAE v Gibraltar

What: International friendly

When: 7pm kick off

Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City

Admission: Free

Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page

UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Major honours

ARSENAL

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SPAIN

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  • European Championship - 2008, 2012
WITHIN%20SAND
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DMZ facts
  • The DMZ was created as a buffer after the 1950-53 Korean War.
  • It runs 248 kilometers across the Korean Peninsula and is 4km wide.
  • The zone is jointly overseen by the US-led United Nations Command and North Korea.
  • It is littered with an estimated 2 million mines, tank traps, razor wire fences and guard posts.
  • Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un met at a building in Panmunjom, where an armistice was signed to stop the Korean War.
  • Panmunjom is 52km north of the Korean capital Seoul and 147km south of Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital.
  • Former US president Bill Clinton visited Panmunjom in 1993, while Ronald Reagan visited the DMZ in 1983, George W. Bush in 2002 and Barack Obama visited a nearby military camp in 2012. 
  • Mr Trump planned to visit in November 2017, but heavy fog that prevented his helicopter from landing.
Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

if you go

The flights

Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes. 

The hotels

Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes. 

When to visit

March-May and September-November

Visas

Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
On Women's Day
On Women's Day
While you're here
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20WonderTree%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20April%202016%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Muhammad%20Waqas%20and%20Muhammad%20Usman%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Karachi%2C%20Pakistan%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%2C%20and%20Delaware%2C%20US%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Special%20education%2C%20education%20technology%2C%20assistive%20technology%2C%20augmented%20reality%3Cbr%3EN%3Cstrong%3Eumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGrowth%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Grants%20from%20the%20Lego%20Foundation%2C%20UAE's%20Anjal%20Z%2C%20Unicef%2C%20Pakistan's%20Ignite%20National%20Technology%20Fund%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Kibsons%20Cares
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERecycling%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3EAny%20time%20you%20receive%20a%20Kibsons%20order%2C%20you%20can%20return%20your%20cardboard%20box%20to%20the%20drivers.%20They%E2%80%99ll%20be%20happy%20to%20take%20it%20off%20your%20hands%20and%20ensure%20it%20gets%20reused%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EKind%20to%20health%20and%20planet%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESolar%20%E2%80%93%2025-50%25%20of%20electricity%20saved%3Cbr%3EWater%20%E2%80%93%2075%25%20of%20water%20reused%3Cbr%3EBiofuel%20%E2%80%93%20Kibsons%20fleet%20to%20get%2020%25%20more%20mileage%20per%20litre%20with%20biofuel%20additives%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESustainable%20grocery%20shopping%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ENo%20antibiotics%3Cbr%3ENo%20added%20hormones%3Cbr%3ENo%20GMO%3Cbr%3ENo%20preservatives%3Cbr%3EMSG%20free%3Cbr%3E100%25%20natural%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ELIO

Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett

Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina

Rating: 4/5

MATCH INFO

Euro 2020 qualifier

Ukraine 2 (Yaremchuk 06', Yarmolenko 27')

Portugal 1 (Ronaldo 72' pen)

About Tenderd

Started: May 2018

Founder: Arjun Mohan

Based: Dubai

Size: 23 employees 

Funding: Raised $5.8m in a seed fund round in December 2018. Backers include Y Combinator, Beco Capital, Venturesouq, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, Paul Buchheit, Justin Mateen, Matt Mickiewicz, SOMA, Dynamo and Global Founders Capital

RESULT

Manchester United 2 Burnley 2
Man United: Lingard (53', 90' 1)
Burnley: Barnes (3'), Defour (36')

Man of the Match: Jesse Lingard (Manchester United)

Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eamana%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Karim%20Farra%20and%20Ziad%20Aboujeb%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERegulator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDFSA%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinancial%20services%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E85%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESelf-funded%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tomorrow 2021
Saudi National Day
While you're here
LA LIGA FIXTURES

Thursday (All UAE kick-off times)

Sevilla v Real Betis (midnight)

Friday

Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)

Valencia v Levante (midnight)

Saturday

Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)

Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)

Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)

Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)

Sunday

Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)

Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)

Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)

While you're here
MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League last 16, first leg

Liverpool v Bayern Munich, midnight, Wednesday, BeIN Sports

Neymar's bio

Total club appearances 411

Total goals scored 241

Appearances for Barca 186

Goals scored for Barca 105

Updated: May 21, 2022, 2:09 PM`
MarketsEconomy