A volatile stock market faces a critical test next week, when the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates and give more insight on its plans for tightening monetary policy to fight surging inflation.
Worries over an increasingly hawkish Fed have helped drag the benchmark S&P 500 index down by 13.3 per cent so far in 2022, its steepest four-month decline to start any year since 1939.
While investors have raised expectations of how aggressively the central bank may tighten monetary policy, many are concerned the Fed will not be able to keep the economy afloat as it battles the worst inflation in nearly four decades.
Compounding concerns over monetary policy, investors have been riled by everything from rising bond yields to the war in Ukraine and more recently lockdowns in China. The market is also entering a historically weaker six-month period for stocks.
“We’re going to be in for, I think, more dicey, choppy, volatile markets here for a while longer, just because of the uncertainty,” said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.
"Things turned the other direction right at the beginning of the year”, coming off a strong fourth quarter at the end of 2021.
Investors widely expect the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points when the central bank's meeting concludes on Wednesday.
They are also bracing for signals from Fed chair Jerome Powell about the future path of interest rates, the central bank's plans for reducing its balance sheet and its view on when inflation will recede.
Policymakers raised rates in March by 25 basis points, the first increase since 2018.
“If the Fed continues to expect high levels of inflation and they don’t see it moderating in the future, that will be a concern for investors," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisers.
"It will mean that the Fed will continue to raise rates and tighten monetary policy, which the market is expecting, but maybe even more aggressively."
Beyond next week's action, policymakers have coalesced around an overall increase of the federal funds rate to at least 2.5 per cent by year end.
Crucial to the tightening plans will be how persistent officials view the current pace of inflation after March's consumer price index showed an annual increase of 8.5 per cent, the largest rise in more than 40 years.
Given that there are indications inflation has started to peak, said Kei Sasaki, senior portfolio manager at Northern Trust Wealth Management, “if there is an even more resounding hawkish tone coming out of that meeting, then that could certainly be viewed as negative".
The sell-off accelerated on Friday as the S&P 500 tumbled 3.6 per cent — its biggest one-day drop since June 2020 — following a disappointing earnings report from Amazon that sent the e-commerce company's shares down 14 per cent.
The month of April marked the S&P 500's biggest monthly fall since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq logged its largest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis.
As investors have girded for tighter monetary policy, bond yields have jumped this year, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note up to about 2.9 per cent from 1.5 per cent at the end of 2021.
That has particularly put pressure on tech and growth stocks, whose valuations rely on future estimated cash flows that are undermined when the investors can earn more on risk-free bonds. The Russell 1000 growth index has fallen about 20 per cent so far this year.
Meanwhile, investor sentiment is dour. The percentage of individual investors describing their six-month outlook for stocks as "bearish" rose to 59.4 per cent, its highest level since 2009, the latest weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors found.
To be sure, after the market's recent slide, the Fed's actions could provide some comfort. Following the Fed's expected rate hike in March, the S&P 500 rallied more than 8 per cent over the ensuing two weeks.
Investors will keep an eye on corporate results, after a mixed week of earnings from megacap companies. Reports from Pfizer, Starbucks and ConocoPhillips are due next week, among others.
With the calendar flipping to May, seasonality also looms as a possible factor for investors. The S&P 500's strongest six months of the year since 1946 have been November through April, when the index has risen an average of 6.8 per cent, according to a CFRA note earlier in the week.
By comparison, the index has gained only 1.7 per cent on average from May-October.
However, more recently, the trends have not been as strong. In the past five years, the S&P 500 has averaged a 7.2 per cent gain in the May-October period versus 5 per cent for November-April, according to a Reuters analysis.
"I don’t know how important seasonality is going to be this time around,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E153hp%20at%206%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E200Nm%20at%204%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E6-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E6.3L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh106%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How being social media savvy can improve your well being
Next time when procastinating online remember that you can save thousands on paying for a personal trainer and a gym membership simply by watching YouTube videos and keeping up with the latest health tips and trends.
As social media apps are becoming more and more consumed by health experts and nutritionists who are using it to awareness and encourage patients to engage in physical activity.
Elizabeth Watson, a personal trainer from Stay Fit gym in Abu Dhabi suggests that “individuals can use social media as a means of keeping fit, there are a lot of great exercises you can do and train from experts at home just by watching videos on YouTube”.
Norlyn Torrena, a clinical nutritionist from Burjeel Hospital advises her clients to be more technologically active “most of my clients are so engaged with their phones that I advise them to download applications that offer health related services”.
Torrena said that “most people believe that dieting and keeping fit is boring”.
However, by using social media apps keeping fit means that people are “modern and are kept up to date with the latest heath tips and trends”.
“It can be a guide to a healthy lifestyle and exercise if used in the correct way, so I really encourage my clients to download health applications” said Mrs Torrena.
People can also connect with each other and exchange “tips and notes, it’s extremely healthy and fun”.
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%209
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041mm%20%E2%80%93%20352%20x%20430%3B%2045mm%20%E2%80%93%20396%20x%20484%3B%20always-on%20Retina%20LTPO%20OLED%2C%202000%20nits%20max%3B%20Ion-X%20glass%20(aluminium%20cases)%2C%20sapphire%20crystal%20(stainless%20steel%20cases)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20S9%2064-bit%2C%20W3%20wireless%2C%202nd-gen%20Ultra%20Wideband%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2064GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20watchOS%2010%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EHealth%20metrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Blood%20oxygen%20sensor%2C%20electrical%20heart%20sensor%20and%20ECG%2C%203rd-gen%20optical%20heart%20sensor%2C%20high%20and%20low%20heart%20rate%20notifications%2C%20irregular%20rhythm%20notifications%2C%20sleep%20stages%2C%20temperature%20sensing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEmergency%20services%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Emergency%20SOS%2C%20international%20emergency%20calling%2C%20crash%20detection%2C%20fall%20detection%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GPS%2FGPS%20%2B%20cellular%3B%20Wi-Fi%2C%20LTE%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Apple%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP6X%2C%20water%20resistant%20up%20to%2050m%2C%20dust%20resistant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20308mAh%20Li-ion%2C%20up%20to%2018h%20regular%2F36h%20low%20power%3B%20wireless%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20eSIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinishes%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Aluminium%20%E2%80%93%20midnight%2C%20pink%2C%20Product%20Red%2C%20silver%2C%20starlight%3B%20stainless%20steel%20%E2%80%93%20gold%2C%20graphite%2C%20silver%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Watch%20Series%209%2C%20woven%20magnetic-to-USB-C%20charging%20cable%2C%20band%2Floop%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Starts%20at%20Dh1%2C599%20(41mm)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C719%20(45mm)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Name: Younis Al Balooshi
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Doctorate degree in forensic medicine at the University of Bonn
Hobbies: Drawing and reading books about graphic design
More on Quran memorisation:
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 4 (Suarez 27', Vidal 32', Dembele 35', Messi 78')
Sevilla 0
Red cards: Ronald Araujo, Ousmane Dembele (Barcelona)
Like a Fading Shadow
Antonio Muñoz Molina
Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez
Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)
Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What to watch out for:
Algae, waste coffee grounds and orange peels will be used in the pavilion's walls and gangways
The hulls of three ships will be used for the roof
The hulls will painted to make the largest Italian tricolour in the country’s history
Several pillars more than 20 metres high will support the structure
Roughly 15 tonnes of steel will be used
One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
The five types of long-term residential visas
Obed Suhail of ServiceMarket, an online home services marketplace, outlines the five types of long-term residential visas:
Investors:
A 10-year residency visa can be obtained by investors who invest Dh10 million, out of which 60 per cent should not be in real estate. It can be a public investment through a deposit or in a business. Those who invest Dh5 million or more in property are eligible for a five-year residency visa. The invested amount should be completely owned by the investors, not loaned, and retained for at least three years.
Entrepreneurs:
A five-year multiple entry visa is available to entrepreneurs with a previous project worth Dh0.5m or those with the approval of an accredited business incubator in the UAE.
Specialists
Expats with specialised talents, including doctors, specialists, scientists, inventors, and creative individuals working in the field of culture and art are eligible for a 10-year visa, given that they have a valid employment contract in one of these fields in the country.
Outstanding students:
A five-year visa will be granted to outstanding students who have a grade of 95 per cent or higher in a secondary school, or those who graduate with a GPA of 3.75 from a university.
Retirees:
Expats who are at least 55 years old can obtain a five-year retirement visa if they invest Dh2m in property, have savings of Dh1m or more, or have a monthly income of at least Dh20,000.
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
%20Ramez%20Gab%20Min%20El%20Akher
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group 1 (PA) Dh119,373 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: Brraq, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Jean-Claude Pecout (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Taamol, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (Turf) 1,800m
Winner: Eqtiraan, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial (TB) Dh183,650 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Soft Whisper, Pat Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
9.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Hypothetical, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
Winner: Etisalat, Sando Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
