After huge rallies fed by blockbuster commodity price surges, the tide may be turning for currencies such as the Australian dollar and Colombian peso as fears of a global growth slowdown take hold in markets.
As inflation and higher borrowing costs reduce business and consumer spending, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank this week cut global growth forecasts by nearly a percentage point and flagged the risk of further drops stemming from China's Covid-19 lockdowns and western sanctions on Russia.
The warnings knocked prices of oil and metals, though tight supply of most commodities has so far capped losses. Brent crude futures remain above $100 a barrel, while the Refinitiv CRB commodity index is still up nearly a quarter this year.
Eight of the top 30 currency performers this year in a group monitored by Societe Generale are commodity-linked. In a smaller G10 grouping, four of the top five are from commodity exporting countries, Refinitiv data shows.
Societe Generale strategist Kenneth Broux reckons however, that the rally is “running on fumes” with a big test for commodity currencies coming from US real yields — or inflation-adjusted 10-year Treasury yields — turning positive this week for the first time in two years.
Central banks are also polishing their hawkish credentials, especially the US Federal Reserve.
A BofA investor survey this week predicted the Fed would hike rates more than seven times this year, up from four times in a March survey.
Anticipation of the resulting growth slowdown may be already taking the edge off commodities and commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, which rose 10 per cent versus the greenback between end-January and late-March.
The Brazilian real has gained 18 per cent this year and the Colombian peso 8 per cent.
“Long Latin American energy exporters and short Asian importers” has been this year's most concentrated foreign exchange trade, the head of a US bank's currency desk said.
However, April has brought a turnaround. The Chilean peso, for example, has shed almost half its first-quarter gains as copper prices ease, while signs of a Chinese slowdown have weighed on the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Morgan Stanley's proprietary FX positioning tracker, calculated off client option market positions, reflects the shift, said James Lord, the bank's global head of foreign exchange.
“Usually exchange rates tend to be very correlated and tend to go in the same direction, but we have seen a huge decoupling between commodity exporting and importing currencies since the start of the year,” Mr Lord said.
On Morgan Stanley's scale of minus 100 to plus 100, where 0 is neutral, positioning on commodity currencies reached 75 in March, the highest according to data going back to 2014. The score has since eased, albeit to a still-bullish 62.
“Commodity exporters' currencies may start to weaken from here because global growth is slowing,” Mr Lord said, noting that extreme positioning means there were “a lot of flows that can go the other way".
The catalyst could be China.
The yuan, crucial to the trajectory of commodities, has fallen to a two-month low against a basket of currencies and a Reuters poll shows analysts are “short” yuan for the first time since October.
With swathes of China under Covid-19 lockdowns, a gauge of hedge fund positioning compiled by the US CFTC shows a sharp decline in Australian dollar net longs — currently $2.1 billion versus six-year highs of about $6.5bn in January.
Brazilian real net longs have held up better, though they too are off early March's record highs of nearly $1bn. Hedge funds have also stopped buying the New Zealand and the Canadian dollar, the data shows.
If growth does slows sharply, currencies' exalted valuations will be hard to justify — the Norwegian crown's value on a trade-weighted basis is near its highest, relative to its median value, for the last 50 years.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars are also well above historic averages on a trade-weighted basis, according to Refinitiv data.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The biog
Favourite colour: Brown
Favourite Movie: Resident Evil
Hobbies: Painting, Cooking, Imitating Voices
Favourite food: Pizza
Trivia: Was the voice of three characters in the Emirati animation, Shaabiyat Al Cartoon
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
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Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Bharatanatyam
A ancient classical dance from the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Intricate footwork and expressions are used to denote spiritual stories and ideas.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
SERIES SCHEDULE
First Test, Galle International Stadium
July 26-30
Second Test, Sinhalese Sports Club Ground
August 3-7
Third Test, Pallekele International Cricket Stadium
August 12-16
First ODI, Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium
August 20
Second ODI, Pallekele International Cricket Stadium
August 24
Third ODI, Pallekele International Cricket Stadium
August 27
Fourth ODI, R Premadasa Stadium
August 31
Fifth ODI, R Premadasa Stadium
September 3
T20, R Premadasa Stadium
September 6
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
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Transmission: 10-speed auto
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
FOOTBALL TEST
Team X 1 Team Y 0
Scorers
Red card
Man of the Match
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
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