Traders of emerging-market debt have a new challenge: predicting which central banks will be first to stop rate rises, and then buying bonds from those countries.
While that might sound premature to investors digesting the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate increase since 2018, Latin America has emerged as the front-runner in this high-stakes game after nations in the region began aggressive tightening about a year ago.
Brazil indicated a rise in May would probably be its last after boosting rates almost 10 percentage points in 13 months.
And central banks in Chile and Colombia raised borrowing costs last month by less than economists forecast.
Higher-than-expected inflation might still derail this shift but the promise of “peak hike” for certain nations in the region has BNP Paribas Asset Management and PineBridge Investments predicting curves will steepen in Latin America, creating opportunities in shorter-maturity debt.
Goldman Sachs Group is recommending steepeners — a strategy in which investors bet on short-term bonds rather then longer-dated ones — particularly in Brazil and Chile.
“We expect some Latin American central banks to start slowing the pace of their hiking cycle as we think they are getting closer to their terminal rates,” said Clement Niel, a fund manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management in London.
“Curves should start bull steepening as inflation slows down and central banks start considering rate cuts.”
The contrast with emerging markets in Asia couldn’t be more stark.
Central banks in India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are expected to only start raising rates in the second half of this year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Policy tightening is likely to weigh on shorter-maturity bonds and flatten the yield curve.
In Europe, while policy makers in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic have already raised rates above pre-pandemic levels, they are set to stay hawkish as their proximity to the war in Ukraine is adding extra uncertainty to their economic outlook and causing the prices of their energy imports to surge.
Both of these factors are negative for their bonds.
We expect some Latin American central banks to start slowing the pace of their hiking cycle as we think they are getting closer to their terminal rates
Clement Niel,
a fund manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management in London
That has put the focus firmly on Latin America, where yield curves have plenty of room to steepen given they are now below their long-term averages.
The shorter end of the Brazilian yield curve is inverted, with two-year yields more than 70 basis points higher than five-year, compared with the average spread of positive 147 basis points since April 2017.
The two-five spread in Mexico is about 10 basis points, below the long-term average of 24.
“Signals of slower tightening, if not a pause, by Latin American central banks engaged in more mature hiking cycles, primarily Brazil and Chile, may leave room for more steepening than currently priced, in line with historical patterns post emerging-market yield-curve inversions,” Goldman Sachs strategists Davide Crosilla and Kamakshya Trivedi in London, wrote in a research note last month.
For others such as Cathy Hepworth, head of emerging markets debt at PGIM Fixed Income in Newark, it is really difficult to make the call that Latin America is at the end of its cycle, because headline and core inflation are drifting to multi-year highs.
“What you have to do is continue to focus on flatteners because it’s too much of a challenge,” Ms Hepworth said. “The margin of error is way too high to call for peak inflation.
"So therefore, being on the front-end of the curve is risky, and if you’re comfortable that at least some positions further out in the curve price in excessive hikes, then that would argue for the flattener position.”
Strengthening regional currencies are also giving Latin American policy makers scope to curtail rises by helping to suppress imported inflation.
Five of the six best-performing emerging-market currencies this year are from Latin America, in part thanks to the rally in commodities that has benefited these resource-rich nations.
“The surprise strength in Latin American currencies in the face of geopolitical risk and a hawkish Federal Reserve may enable central banks to tighten less than warranted by short-term inflation fears,” said Anders Faergemann, a senior portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments in London.
“The unexpected appreciation of exchange rates should lead Latin American central banks to take the foot off the pedal sooner than the market currently expects.”
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Canada
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if you go
The five pillars of Islam
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
The specs
Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder
Transmission: 7-speed auto
0-100kmh 2.3 seconds
0-200kmh 5.5 seconds
0-300kmh 11.6 seconds
Power: 1500hp
Torque: 1600Nm
Price: Dh13,400,000
On sale: now
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETwin-turbo%2C%20V8%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20automatic%20and%20manual%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E503%20bhp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E513Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh646%2C800%20(%24176%2C095)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2A)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7-inch%20flexible%20Amoled%2C%202%2C412%20x%201%2C080%2C%20394ppi%2C%20120Hz%2C%20Corning%20Gorilla%20Glass%205%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MediaTek%20Dimensity%207%2C200%20Pro%2C%204nm%2C%20octa-core%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F12GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20128%2F256GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2014%2C%20Nothing%20OS%202.5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%2050MP%20main%2C%20f%2F1.88%20%2B%2050MP%20ultra-wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3B%20OIS%2C%20EIS%2C%20auto-focus%2C%20ultra%20XDR%2C%20night%20mode%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2030fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2060fps%3B%20slo-mo%20full-HD%20at%20120fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2032MP%20wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2C000mAh%3B%2050%25%20in%2030%20minutes%20with%2045-watt%20charger%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Google%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fingerprint%2C%20face%20unlock%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP54%2C%20limited%20protection%20from%20water%2Fdust%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual-nano%20SIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Black%2C%20milk%2C%20white%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nothing%20Phone%20(2a)%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%2C%20pre-applied%20screen%20protector%2C%20Sim%20tray%20ejector%20tool%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%20(UAE)%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh1%2C199%20(8GB%2F128GB)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C399%20(12GB%2F256GB)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
AS%20WE%20EXIST
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Kaoutar%20Harchi%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%20Other%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20176%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAvailable%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4 liquid-cooled permanent magnet synchronous electric motors placed at each wheel
Battery: Rimac 120kWh Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (LiNiMnCoO2) chemistry
Power: 1877bhp
Torque: 2300Nm
Price: Dh7,500,00
On sale: Now
Read more from Kareem Shaheen
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
The Disaster Artist
Director: James Franco
Starring: James Franco, Dave Franco, Seth Rogan
Four stars
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
UAE%20medallists%20at%20Asian%20Games%202023
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EGold%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMagomedomar%20Magomedomarov%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20%2B100kg%0D%3Cbr%3EKhaled%20Al%20Shehi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-62kg%0D%3Cbr%3EFaisal%20Al%20Ketbi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-85kg%0D%3Cbr%3EAsma%20Al%20Hosani%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-52kg%0D%3Cbr%3EShamma%20Al%20Kalbani%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-63kg%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESilver%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EOmar%20Al%20Marzooqi%20%E2%80%93%20Equestrian%20%E2%80%93%20Individual%20showjumping%0D%3Cbr%3EBishrelt%20Khorloodoi%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-52kg%0D%3Cbr%3EKhalid%20Al%20Blooshi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-62kg%0D%3Cbr%3EMohamed%20Al%20Suwaidi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-69kg%0D%3Cbr%3EBalqees%20Abdulla%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-48kg%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBronze%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EHawraa%20Alajmi%20%E2%80%93%20Karate%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20kumite%20-50kg%0D%3Cbr%3EAhmed%20Al%20Mansoori%20%E2%80%93%20Cycling%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20omnium%0D%3Cbr%3EAbdullah%20Al%20Marri%20%E2%80%93%20Equestrian%20%E2%80%93%20Individual%20showjumping%0D%3Cbr%3ETeam%20UAE%20%E2%80%93%20Equestrian%20%E2%80%93%20Team%20showjumping%0D%3Cbr%3EDzhafar%20Kostoev%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-100kg%0D%3Cbr%3ENarmandakh%20Bayanmunkh%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-66kg%0D%3Cbr%3EGrigorian%20Aram%20%E2%80%93%20Judo%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-90kg%0D%3Cbr%3EMahdi%20Al%20Awlaqi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-77kg%0D%3Cbr%3ESaeed%20Al%20Kubaisi%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Men%E2%80%99s%20-85kg%0D%3Cbr%3EShamsa%20Al%20Ameri%20%E2%80%93%20Jiu-jitsu%20%E2%80%93%20Women%E2%80%99s%20-57kg%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
Specs – Taycan 4S
Engine: Electric
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 571bhp
Torque: 650Nm
Price: Dh431,800
Specs – Panamera
Engine: 3-litre V6 with 100kW electric motor
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 455bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: from Dh431,800
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
If you go
The flights
Etihad flies direct from Abu Dhabi to San Francisco from Dh5,760 return including taxes.
The car
Etihad Guest members get a 10 per cent worldwide discount when booking with Hertz, as well as earning miles on their rentals. A week's car hire costs from Dh1,500 including taxes.
The hotels
Along the route, Motel 6 (www.motel6.com) offers good value and comfort, with rooms from $55 (Dh202) per night including taxes. In Portland, the Jupiter Hotel (https://jupiterhotel.com/) has rooms from $165 (Dh606) per night including taxes. The Society Hotel https://thesocietyhotel.com/ has rooms from $130 (Dh478) per night including taxes.
More info
To keep up with constant developments in Portland, visit www.travelportland.com. Good guidebooks include the Lonely Planet guides to Northern California and Washington, Oregon & the Pacific Northwest.
THE%C2%A0SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.4-litre%20four-cylinder%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20210hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Starting%20from%20Dh89%2C900%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Venue: Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Date: Sunday, November 25
'Munich: The Edge of War'
Director: Christian Schwochow
Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons
Rating: 3/5
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday Valladolid v Osasuna (Kick-off midnight UAE)
Saturday Valencia v Athletic Bilbao (5pm), Getafe v Sevilla (7.15pm), Huesca v Alaves (9.30pm), Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid (midnight)
Sunday Real Sociedad v Eibar (5pm), Real Betis v Villarreal (7.15pm), Elche v Granada (9.30pm), Barcelona v Levante (midnight)
Monday Celta Vigo v Cadiz (midnight)
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 2.2-litre, turbodiesel
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Power: 160hp
Torque: 385Nm
Price: Dh116,900
On sale: now
Remaining Fixtures
Wednesday: West Indies v Scotland
Thursday: UAE v Zimbabwe
Friday: Afghanistan v Ireland
Sunday: Final
