From Baku in Azerbaijan to Baumgarten an der March in Austria is some 2,700km as the crow flies. But no bird would follow the convoluted route of the Nabucco pipeline which is intended to connect the two energy centres when it is completed in 2014.
The gas pipeline - agreement for which was finally signed at a multi-national summit in the Turkish city of Erzerum last week - twists and turns so violently that its final length will end up closer to 4,500km. Just as many deviations and diversions are likely in the face of the complex political and economic obstacles to the arrival of central Asian gas in European markets.
The Erzerum deal was backed by Turkey and the four other countries through which Nabucco will pass - Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. It will be 50 per cent funded by the EU, with the balance coming from energy companies in those countries and in Germany. At a total cost of ?8 billion (Dh41.5bn), it is the EU's largest single energy infrastructure commitment, and, for geopolitical reasons, also has the backing of the USA and other western countries.
Nabucco is the holy grail of western energy policy. It aims to tap the huge gas resources of central Asia and transport that raw energy to European consumers - without passing through Russian territory. Europe wants to free itself from the tyranny of Russian interference in its energy supplies, and sees Nabucco as the answer.
But while attention at the signing ceremony was focused on the western end of the project, there was a gentle reminder that the gas itself has its origins in the "stans" of central Asia, and is subject to the geopolitical realities of the energy business in that fractious part of the world.
The Iranians offered to supply some of the Nabucco gas from the terminal in Tabriz in the north of the country. Generously, Iran said it could make up 50 per cent of Nabucco capacity. While the West, especially the US, would not want to substitute reliance on Russian energy supplies for Iranian, the offer highlighted the big problem with Nabucco: how to find enough gas to push through to Baumgarten to ensure the project is viable.
The crux of the difficulty lies in Baku, capital of Azerbaijan and once the energy capital of the world. In 1900, the region around Baku produced 50 per cent of the world's crude, and even today the skyline of obsolete derricks and the ubiquitous stench of petroleum testifies to the city's energy-rich heritage.
At the heart of the Caspian region's vast oil and gas fields, Baku dominates the central Asian energy industry. Azerbaijan still has plenty of oil, even though it is technically harder to access than in the days when Soviet oilmen rapaciously drained it. The Apsheron peninsula, on which the Azeri city is situated, is the centre of a gigantic spider's web of oil and gas pipelines that will connect central Asia to Russia and Europe.
In particular, it is intended to be the landing stage of the TransCaspian Pipeline (TCP), which aims to give Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan an outlet for their huge gas fields. The project is still at the planning stage, and will require massive financial commitments before work can begin.
To hook all these supplies up via Baku, for onward shipment to Turkey and Europe, is an enormous technological and engineering challenge. But just as daunting are the political obstacles the project faces, the most significant of which lie in Azerbaijan.
The Azeris have been dominated by their northern neighbours for centuries, first as Tsarist colonisers then as Soviet conquerors. An independent republic since 1991, Azerbaijan still fears the influence of the Russians, who regard all the former Soviet lands as their "near abroad" sphere of influence. The Russians were angered in 1994 when Azerbaijan signed the "deal of the century" to grant Western oil companies a major say in their exploration and production, but were unable to do anything about it then.
But under presidents Vladimir Putin and now Dmitry Medvedev, Russia is much more assertive in its former backyard. Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, knows he has to keep the Russians sweet on energy, or risk confrontation with them, even military intervention. The one-sided war between Russian and Georgia last year - which halted Azeri oil exports over the new Baku-Tblisi-Ceylan pipeline - was read by Baku as a sign of what Medvedev could do to disrupt their energy supplies if he chose to. The Russians could also use their proxies in Armenia - still theoretically in a state of war with Azerbaijan - to stymie Azeri energy exports.
Earlier this month, just before the Nabucco signing, Aliyev travelled to Moscow to sign another deal with Medvedev, by which he promised to send some Azeri gas northwards on existing pipelines to the Russian energy giant, Gazprom. But there is a limit to how much gas the Azeris can produce, even from the abundance of the Shah Deniz field, or import across the Caspian. Hence the very real fears over their ability to fill the Nabucco pipeline.
Signing the Erzerum deal was the easy part for Europe and its energy allies. There are huge imponderables over the eastern end of the Nabucco project, from the technical challenges of marshalling gas supplies, through doubts over Azeri ability to ship it, to the more-or-less open determination of the Russians and Iranians to disrupt the project. If gas arrives in Baumgarten in any meaningful quantity in 2014, many global energy experts will be very surprised indeed.
fkane@thenational.ae
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Bio
Born in Dibba, Sharjah in 1972.
He is the eldest among 11 brothers and sisters.
He was educated in Sharjah schools and is a graduate of UAE University in Al Ain.
He has written poetry for 30 years and has had work published in local newspapers.
He likes all kinds of adventure movies that relate to his work.
His dream is a safe and preserved environment for all humankind.
His favourite book is The Quran, and 'Maze of Innovation and Creativity', written by his brother.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Company%20profile
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Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
Results
5.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Dirt) 1,600m, Winner: Panadol, Mickael Barzalona (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer)
6.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,400m, Winner: Mayehaab, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
6.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh85,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Monoski, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer
7.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (T) 1,800m, Winner: Eastern World, Royston Ffrench, Charlie Appleby
7.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Madkal, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
8.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (T) 1,200m, Winner: Taneen, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
Financial considerations before buying a property
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
MATCH INFO
Asian Champions League, last 16, first leg:
Al Ain 2 Al Duhail 4
Second leg:
Tuesday, Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha. Kick off 7.30pm
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
FIXTURES
Thu Mar 15 – West Indies v Afghanistan, UAE v Scotland
Fri Mar 16 – Ireland v Zimbabwe
Sun Mar 18 – Ireland v Scotland
Mon Mar 19 – West Indies v Zimbabwe
Tue Mar 20 – UAE v Afghanistan
Wed Mar 21 – West Indies v Scotland
Thu Mar 22 – UAE v Zimbabwe
Fri Mar 23 – Ireland v Afghanistan
The top two teams qualify for the World Cup
Classification matches
The top-placed side out of Papua New Guinea, Hong Kong or Nepal will be granted one-day international status. UAE and Scotland have already won ODI status, having qualified for the Super Six.
Thu Mar 15 – Netherlands v Hong Kong, PNG v Nepal
Sat Mar 17 – 7th-8th place playoff, 9th-10th place play-off
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes. Portland is a 260 km drive from Seattle and Emirates offers codeshare flights to Portland with its partner Alaska Airlines.
The car
Hertz (www.hertz.ae) offers compact car rental from about $300 per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
Parks and accommodation
For information on Crater Lake National Park, visit www.nps.gov/crla/index.htm . Because of the altitude, large parts of the park are closed in winter due to snow. While the park’s summer season is May 22-October 31, typically, the full loop of the Rim Drive is only possible from late July until the end of October. Entry costs $25 per car for a day. For accommodation, see www.travelcraterlake.com. For information on Umpqua Hot Springs, see www.fs.usda.gov and https://soakoregon.com/umpqua-hot-springs/. For Bend, see https://www.visitbend.com/.
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 1 (Hudson-Odoi 90 1')
Manchester City 3 (Gundogan 18', Foden 21', De Bruyne 34')
Man of the match: Ilkay Gundogan (Man City)
SQUADS
South Africa:
JP Duminy (capt), Hashim Amla, Farhaan Behardien, Quinton de Kock (wkt), AB de Villiers, Robbie Frylinck, Beuran Hendricks, David Miller, Mangaliso Mosehle (wkt), Dane Paterson, Aaron Phangiso, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Tabraiz Shamsi
Bangladesh
Shakib Al Hasan (capt), Imrul Kayes, Liton Das (wkt), Mahmudullah, Mehidy Hasan, Mohammad Saifuddin, Mominul Haque, Mushfiqur Rahim (wkt), Nasir Hossain, Rubel Hossain, Sabbir Rahman, Shafiul Islam, Soumya Sarkar, Taskin Ahmed
Fixtures
Oct 26: Bloemfontein
Oct 29: Potchefstroom
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Greenwood 77')
Everton 1 (Lindelof 36' og)
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
What is graphene?
Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)