The bulls and the bears are split on the prospects for gold as the price of the precious metal hit a high yesterday. On the one side, the bulls consider investment in the commodity as a hedge against the rising risk of a global recession.
In the other camp are the bears, who say piling into gold may be a sign of irrational exuberance. They point out that financial markets are giving conflicting signals. While low yields on bonds are signalling investors are worried about the threat of deflation, high demand for gold indicates concern about inflation risk.
"Gold [is] as good as Spam in forecasting prices," said Nouriel Roubini, the chairman of Roubini Global Economics, on Twitter this week. He appears sceptical about the gold rush.
Whatever their opinion, analysts say the outlook for gold hinges on the performance of the global economy.
"The outlook for the next 12 to 18 months is bullish but there's a higher danger of subsidence once the speculative froth eases," said Jeffrey Rhodes, the chief executive of INTL Commodities in Dubai.
Prices surged to US$1,826 yesterday, a rise of more than 20 per cent since the start of last month.
Investors have flocked to the commodity as concern about the US and European economies diminishes the attractiveness of the dollar and the euro. Historically, the precious metal has gained during bouts of economic or financial market turmoil as it is viewed as a hedge against risk. Prices surged during the global recession.
In Asia, demand for gold has been driven by a different factor: inflation. In China it hit a three-year high last month, and India's benchmark wholesale-price index has remained above 9 per cent for seven straight months. Renowned as a hedge against inflation, gold manages to retain its value over the long-term compared with other commodities.
As a result, Indian buying was up 17 per cent in the second quarter, with Chinese demand rising 16 per cent in the same period, according to figures released by the World Gold Council yesterday.
"Gold is stabilising in the near term," Ronald Leung, a physical dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong, was quoted as saying by Reuters yesterday. "But low interest rates in the US and the messy situation in Europe will push gold higher."
The US Federal Reserve pledged last week to keep interest rates low until 2013 to help support weakness in the economy.
Another driver of gold in recent years has been the introduction of exchange traded funds (ETFs). These enable a larger number of investors to buy gold bullion in the same way they would shares.
Purchases of gold in tonnage through ETFs reached an all-time high in recent weeks, helping support prices.
tarnold@thenational.ae
START-UPS%20IN%20BATCH%204%20OF%20SANABIL%20500'S%20ACCELERATOR%20PROGRAMME
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Family reunited
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was born and raised in Tehran and studied English literature before working as a translator in the relief effort for the Japanese International Co-operation Agency in 2003.
She moved to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies before moving to the World Health Organisation as a communications officer.
She came to the UK in 2007 after securing a scholarship at London Metropolitan University to study a master's in communication management and met her future husband through mutual friends a month later.
The couple were married in August 2009 in Winchester and their daughter was born in June 2014.
She was held in her native country a year later.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E640hp%20at%206%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E850Nm%20from%202%2C300-4%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E11.9L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh749%2C800%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: four-litre V6 and 3.5-litre V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: six-speed and 10-speed
Power: 271 and 409 horsepower
Torque: 385 and 650Nm
Price: from Dh229,900 to Dh355,000
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Raha%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kuwait%2FSaudi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tech%20Logistics%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2414%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Soor%20Capital%2C%20eWTP%20Arabia%20Capital%2C%20Aujan%20Enterprises%2C%20Nox%20Management%2C%20Cedar%20Mundi%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20166%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Astroworld
Travis Scott
Grand Hustle/Epic/Cactus Jack
If you go
The flights
Return flights from Dubai to Santiago, via Sao Paolo cost from Dh5,295 with Emirates.
The trip
A five-day trip (not including two days of flight travel) was split between Santiago and in Puerto Varas, with more time spent in the later where excursions were organised by TurisTour.
When to go
The summer months, from December to February are best though there is beauty in each season
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
