What started as the worst-case scenario for US unemployment is quickly becoming reality. Some economists now see the jobless rate surging to 20 per cent as soon as this month -- and there’s no guarantee it would stop there.
About 5.5 million people are estimated to have filed for unemployment last week, in data due out Thursday. That would push the four-week total above 22 million, roughly one-in-eight of the workforce -- essentially wiping out all the job gains since the last recession.
And jobless claims are expected to stay in the millions for several more weeks, as the impact of the coronavirus cascades through the economy. It all adds up to a worse recession than initially thought, and probably a more difficult recovery once the pandemic subsides.
Many people have been struggling for weeks to file for unemployment benefits via overwhelmed and outdated websites. And while the government has rushed to help by authorising trillions in stimulus, delays in getting the money to households and businesses -- as well as a possible shortage of program funds -- could push the jobless rate higher or keep it elevated for longer.
“We don’t have the administrative systems to get $2.2 trillion (Dh8tn) into the economy in three weeks,” said Claudia Sahm, director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for
Equitable Growth. “What we have right now is a race between the virus wreaking havoc on the economy, and the relief trying to get out.”
If initial jobless claims don’t begin leveling off, a 30 per cent unemployment rate moves from “the realm of possibility” to “the most likely forecast,” said Ms Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist.
That would be triple the 10 per cent seen in the wake of the global financial crisis and even above the roughly 25 per cent seen during the Great Depression, though the methodology for that figure was different. The median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey earlier this month was for a second-quarter jobless rate of 12.6 per cent.
The official unemployment rate only includes those actively looking for a job. That means that the 1.76 million increase in Americans outside the labor force in March -- the largest jump in seven decades of data covering people not actively looking for work -- isn’t reflected in the jobless rate. And those figures cover early March, before the vast majority of coronavirus-related layoffs.
Historically, jobless claims also understate the number of people out of work. In 2018, only 26 per cent of unemployed people who had worked in the last 12 months actually applied for benefit payments, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics.
Uptake is likely to be higher now, however, given the unique circumstances of Covid-19.
“Oftentimes people didn’t take the unemployment insurance because there was an opportunity to find another job. That is not the case right now,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “People who never took unemployment before would take it in this environment because they have no choice.”
One possible bright spot in the data: Pennsylvania, which initially saw outsize weekly figures compared with other states, has begun to show a slower pace of claims, offering hope that other states may follow.
Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase, said most of the layoffs in the US have likely already occurred, noting how most of the stay-at-home orders went into place more than a week ago.
Initial jobless claims may stay elevated given the backlog, Feroli said. He forecasts an unemployment rate of 20 per cent in April and holding around there in May, before sliding back down when people head back to work.
The figures may fluctuate, though. Ms Swonk said government stimulus could pull workers back onto payrolls in May or June, but if financing from the program runs out, unemployment may jump again later in the year.
Also, the claims figures so far also likely don’t account for all of the gig workers and self-employed Americans who have suddenly lost their main source of income. While those workers aren’t reflected in the Labour Department’s payrolls figure -- which is derived from a survey of employers -- they play a role in the calculation of the unemployment rate, which comes from a separate survey of households.
Some states are just beginning to open applications for pandemic unemployment assistance, or the aid made available to the self-employed and those not typically eligible for unemployment benefits by the stimulus bill passed last month. Others may take weeks.
And it’s possible millions more job losses are in the pipeline for the coming months.
“There are people, there are businesses who are still hanging on that are going to lose their grip,” Ms Sahm said.
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinFlx%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202021%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amr%20Yussif%20(co-founder%20and%20CEO)%2C%20Mattieu%20Capelle%20(co-founder%20and%20CTO)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%20in%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241.5m%20pre-seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Venture%20capital%20-%20Y%20Combinator%2C%20500%20Global%2C%20Dubai%20Future%20District%20Fund%2C%20Fox%20Ventures%2C%20Vector%20Fintech.%20Also%20a%20number%20of%20angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-cylinder%202-litre%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E252%20brake%20horsepower%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E352Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh146%2C700%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
The specs: 2018 Infiniti QX80
Price: base / as tested: Dh335,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 400hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.1L / 100km
Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELeap%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202021%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ziad%20Toqan%20and%20Jamil%20Khammu%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
SQUAD
Ali Khaseif, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Adel Al Hosani, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Bandar Al Ahbabi, Mohammed Barghash, Salem Rashid, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Hassan Al Mahrami, Walid Abbas, Mahmoud Khamis, Yousef Jaber, Saeed Ahmed, Majed Sorour, Majed Hassan, Ali Salmeen, Abdullah Ramadan, Khalil Al Hammadi, Fabio De Lima, Khalfan Mubarak, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Ali Saleh, Caio Canedo, Muhammed Jumah, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
Aggro%20Dr1ft
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Harmony%20Korine%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Jordi%20Molla%2C%20Travis%20Scott%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, Group B
Barcelona v Inter Milan
Camp Nou, Barcelona
Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
Zodi%20%26%20Tehu%3A%20Princes%20Of%20The%20Desert
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEric%20Barbier%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYoussef%20Hajdi%2C%20Nadia%20Benzakour%2C%20Yasser%20Drief%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Most wanted allegations
- Benjamin Macann, 32: involvement in cocaine smuggling gang.
- Jack Mayle, 30: sold drugs from a phone line called the Flavour Quest.
- Callum Halpin, 27: over the 2018 murder of a rival drug dealer.
- Asim Naveed, 29: accused of being the leader of a gang that imported cocaine.
- Calvin Parris, 32: accused of buying cocaine from Naveed and selling it on.
- John James Jones, 31: allegedly stabbed two people causing serious injuries.
- Callum Michael Allan, 23: alleged drug dealing and assaulting an emergency worker.
- Dean Garforth, 29: part of a crime gang that sold drugs and guns.
- Joshua Dillon Hendry, 30: accused of trafficking heroin and crack cocain.
- Mark Francis Roberts, 28: grievous bodily harm after a bungled attempt to steal a £60,000 watch.
- James ‘Jamie’ Stevenson, 56: for arson and over the seizure of a tonne of cocaine.
- Nana Oppong, 41: shot a man eight times in a suspected gangland reprisal attack.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
