A view of the skyline of Manama.
A view of the skyline of Manama.

Lengthy challenge for Bahrain's businesses



Business ground to a halt in Bahrain last month when clashes between the security forces and protesters escalated.

Now, political and economic risk experts say the protests could have a long-term effect on the kingdom's economy.

"With the recent troubles, we will likely see temporary relocations [of staff from Bahrain] turn into permanent ones, with Dubai being the main beneficiary," said Ghanem Nuseibeh, a political risk analyst and founder of Cornerstone Global consultancy.

"Those who have left or are considering a permanent move will need to be convinced that the troubles will not flare-up again," Mr Nuseibeh said, adding it would be "an uphill struggle" in the absence of any long-term solution.

As the Bahraini government scrambles to restore its reputation as a business-friendly and secure financial centre, it has been hard-pressed to prevent the flight of office workers out of Manama.

Staff from international financial institutions including BNP Paribas, HSBC and Norton Rose have left the kingdom as institutions rethink their strategy and either temporarily shut or scale back operations.

They may also find the UAE and Qatar more appealing places to do business in, Mr Nuseibeh said.

The political turmoil in Bahrain also triggered a series of downgrades by ratings agencies and sent debt insurance costs for the country to 20-month highs, in turn harming its borrowing potential and prompting criticism from Bahraini banking executives.

"The decision was hasty," said Rasheed al Maraj, the central bank governor. "The economic fundamentals of Bahrain have not changed and it's unfortunate the ratings agencies have made this decision without going into the details of the economy." Yousif Taqi, the chief executive of Al Salam Bank, claimed the reputation of ratings agencies had been tarnished following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the decision to downgrade the country's sovereign debt was "politically motivated".

Calling Bahrain "the baby of the Gulf", he said the backing of Saudi Arabia and other GCC neighbours would ensure the small island kingdom did not fall foul of any economic burden following the unrest. "It will always be looked after," Mr Taqi said.

The backing of Saudi Arabia has subdued speculation over Bahrain's wealth and stability.

Saudi Arabia remains a linchpin in the outlook for global oil markets and for regional economic and political developments. "I would be more concerned if something happened to Saudi Arabia, which had a significant impact on the region," said Mr Taqi.

In 2001 Bahrainis strongly backed proposals put by the emir to turn the country into a constitutional monarchy with an elected parliament and an independent judiciary.

Elections were duly held in 2002 for a 40-member parliament, the Chamber of Deputies. It was the first such poll in almost 30 years.

But taking a cue from protesters in Tunisia and Egypt, crowds took to the streets on February 14 and occupied Pearl Roundabout, the heart of the capital. A nationwide strike was also called by Bahrain's largest trade union, the General Federation.

Their actions culminated in the dismissal of hundreds of public-sector workers from various industries including telecommunications, manufacturing and aviation, who failed to show up for work without prior consent.

Ibrahim Sharif, the head of the opposition party Wa'ad, was an early shareholder in the telecoms operator 2Connect and has been among several anti-government activists arrested in the past few weeks.

2Connect has been entangled in a legal battle with the Telecoms Regulation Authority (TRA) since the regulator made the decision to suspend the operator's services on March 21 because of "unspecified security concerns".

The regulator has since said it would extend the deadline for 2Connect to cease its services by a month, until April 23, to give the company's clients more time to "smoothly transition their services to another operator of choice".

Fahad al Shirawi, the chief executive of 2Connect, has been working with the TRA to reverse the decision and has teamed up with another operator based in Bahrain, Next Generation Network Solutions, to assure "business continuity to all clients". Mr al Shirawi had been in discussions with three other providers that have agreed to take on 2Connect's clients and assets until the matter is resolved.

His main argument has been Bahrain's economy risks losing business from top international companies if the suspension persists. And with Citibank, BNP Paribas, Icap, Bloomberg News and the US government among his clients, it is indicative of the need for the government to appease some of its biggest foreign investors.

A strategy is already being put in place by the central bank and the government to waive fees and offer liquidity to cash-strapped small and medium-sized businesses, traders and banks.

However, many see this as damage limitation, with longer-term effects on the economy yet to be felt.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Name: Kumulus Water
 
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Tips on buying property during a pandemic

Islay Robinson, group chief executive of mortgage broker Enness Global, offers his advice on buying property in today's market.

While many have been quick to call a market collapse, this simply isn’t what we’re seeing on the ground. Many pockets of the global property market, including London and the UAE, continue to be compelling locations to invest in real estate.

While an air of uncertainty remains, the outlook is far better than anyone could have predicted. However, it is still important to consider the wider threat posed by Covid-19 when buying bricks and mortar. 

Anything with outside space, gardens and private entrances is a must and these property features will see your investment keep its value should the pandemic drag on. In contrast, flats and particularly high-rise developments are falling in popularity and investors should avoid them at all costs.

Attractive investment property can be hard to find amid strong demand and heightened buyer activity. When you do find one, be prepared to move hard and fast to secure it. If you have your finances in order, this shouldn’t be an issue.

Lenders continue to lend and rates remain at an all-time low, so utilise this. There is no point in tying up cash when you can keep this liquidity to maximise other opportunities. 

Keep your head and, as always when investing, take the long-term view. External factors such as coronavirus or Brexit will present challenges in the short-term, but the long-term outlook remains strong. 

Finally, keep an eye on your currency. Whenever currency fluctuations favour foreign buyers, you can bet that demand will increase, as they act to secure what is essentially a discounted property.

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