VIENNA // The world recession may have wrought what once seemed impossible: a rapprochement between the group controlling 40 per cent of global oil supplies and the world's biggest energy consumer.
The US and OPEC have been at odds for at least the past 35 years, ever since the oil exporters' group set out to raise world oil prices to try to stabilise its members' real incomes.
At the same time, Arab oil exporters, including some key OPEC members, imposed an embargo on the western allies of Israel in that country's Yom Kippur war against Egypt. Americans never forgot having to queue for petrol, a fuel that many equated with personal freedom, in the 15 months of the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo.
The concurrent US stock market crash and the period of high inflation that immediately followed were equally painful.
Rightly or wrongly, most Americans at the time blamed OPEC and passed that attitude on to their children.
The plan for US energy independence that Henry Kissinger, then the US secretary of state, unveiled in Feb 1974, resonated last year in Barack Obama's campaign for the US presidency.
Before his election last November, Mr Obama called for the US to reduce its dependence on oil imports.
Meanwhile, OPEC members became increasingly affronted by the apparent American sense of entitlement to the oil resources of developing nations, and by US indifference to the pernicious effects of persistently low crude prices on oil exporters' economies. These were factors that fed the rise of anti-western militancy in a number of Muslim states.
But now, with Mr Obama's presidency reflecting a widespread American desire for improved foreign relations, the ice may finally be melting.
"We can see a different tone," Abdalla el Badri, the OPEC secretary general, said on Monday at the group's headquarters in Vienna.
"Now we are seeing positive signals, people that would like to talk, people that would like to communicate, to have dialogue, and this is really encouraging us.
"The US should not see us as an enemy."
The OPEC chief's uncharacteristic comments followed the group's decision the previous day to leave its oil production ceiling unchanged - something the US had requested.
With minimum dissent, according to Dr el Badri, OPEC's gathered ministers instead agreed to focus on removing up to 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude supplies from the international market by insisting on compliance with existing output quotas that some of its members had been flouting.
OPEC is to meet again on May 28 to review the success of this approach and reassess its options.
In the week before Sunday's meeting, analysts made much of the mixed signals from OPEC officials regarding members' support for another cut, on top of the record 4.2 million bpd of supply reductions announced last year.
That reinforced a widespread perception of the 12-nation group as deeply divided. But presented with the extraordinary economic consequences riding on their decision, the ministers quickly reached a consensus, Dr el Badri said.
"It was an easy decision," concurred Sheikh Ahmed al Sabah, the Kuwaiti oil minister, who had earlier pressed for another cut.
Last-minute lobbying of OPEC by Steven Chu, the US secretary of energy, who argued that the fragile world economy could not absorb a sharp rebound in crude prices, may not have directly affected the group's decision-making process.
But the legitimate concerns articulated by top US officials over prospects for global economic recovery may have had an important indirect influence.
Dr el Badri said for the record that OPEC reached its agreement independently and was not pressured by Washington. He said a telephone call on Friday by Mr Obama to Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah had no bearing on the OPEC meeting.
The White House said the call was to discuss arrangements for an upcoming Group of 20 leading economies summit in London that both leaders planned to attend.
Indeed, the influential Saudi oil minister's repeated insistence that OPEC members adhere closely to their quotas pre-dated the US president's call to his boss.
That suggests the interests of the US and OPEC's biggest oil exporter were already closely aligned, with both seeking to remove impediments to global economic recovery.
Washington wants to see the rising US unemployment trend reversed, and for flagging US industrial activity to pick up. Saudi Arabia wants the same, as it would stimulate oil demand and encourage long-term strengthening of oil prices.
And with its spare crude oil production capacity enhanced by the 1.6 million bpd by which it has cut its oil exports in the past six months, the kingdom is uniquely positioned to impose its will on any oil exporters, within or outside OPEC, seeking a fast boost to crude prices.
The world's biggest oil exporter could at any time easily open its taps to bring prices back to earth.
OPEC has not abandoned its position that a stable oil price of about $75 a barrel is needed to attract the long-term investment required to ensure the world remains adequately supplied with oil.
Dr el Badri suggests this might also suit Mr Obama's agenda of encouraging the development of domestic low-carbon energy alternatives, which so far do not come cheaply.
But the much-desired smooth transition to a new world order free from energy uncertainty and further price shocks cannot be achieved unless the US and OPEC from now on work diligently to accommodate each other's legitimate economic aspirations.
That will indeed require an unaccustomed dose of dialogue to bridge a yawning cultural divide.
For the world's sick economy, that could be just what the doctor ordered.
tcarlisle@thenational.ae
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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The biog
Favourite colour: Brown
Favourite Movie: Resident Evil
Hobbies: Painting, Cooking, Imitating Voices
Favourite food: Pizza
Trivia: Was the voice of three characters in the Emirati animation, Shaabiyat Al Cartoon
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
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Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
FULL%20FIGHT%20CARD
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Pox that threatens the Middle East's native species
Camelpox
Caused by a virus related to the one that causes human smallpox, camelpox typically causes fever, swelling of lymph nodes and skin lesions in camels aged over three, but the animal usually recovers after a month or so. Younger animals may develop a more acute form that causes internal lesions and diarrhoea, and is often fatal, especially when secondary infections result. It is found across the Middle East as well as in parts of Asia, Africa, Russia and India.
Falconpox
Falconpox can cause a variety of types of lesions, which can affect, for example, the eyelids, feet and the areas above and below the beak. It is a problem among captive falcons and is one of many types of avian pox or avipox diseases that together affect dozens of bird species across the world. Among the other forms are pigeonpox, turkeypox, starlingpox and canarypox. Avipox viruses are spread by mosquitoes and direct bird-to-bird contact.
Houbarapox
Houbarapox is, like falconpox, one of the many forms of avipox diseases. It exists in various forms, with a type that causes skin lesions being least likely to result in death. Other forms cause more severe lesions, including internal lesions, and are more likely to kill the bird, often because secondary infections develop. This summer the CVRL reported an outbreak of pox in houbaras after rains in spring led to an increase in mosquito numbers.
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Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
JOKE'S%20ON%20YOU
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Book%20Details
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
more from Janine di Giovanni
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre supercharged V6
Power: 416hp at 7,000rpm
Torque: 410Nm at 3,500rpm
Transmission: 6-speed manual
Fuel consumption: 10.2 l/100km
Price: Dh375,000
On sale: now
SPECS
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Checks continue
A High Court judge issued an interim order on Friday suspending a decision by Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots to direct a stop to Brexit agri-food checks at Northern Ireland ports.
Mr Justice Colton said he was making the temporary direction until a judicial review of the minister's unilateral action this week to order a halt to port checks that are required under the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Civil servants have yet to implement the instruction, pending legal clarity on their obligations, and checks are continuing.
THE BIO
Ambition: To create awareness among young about people with disabilities and make the world a more inclusive place
Job Title: Human resources administrator, Expo 2020 Dubai
First jobs: Co-ordinator with Magrudy Enterprises; HR coordinator at Jumeirah Group
Entrepreneur: Started his own graphic design business
Favourite singer: Avril Lavigne
Favourite travel destination: Germany and Saudi Arabia
Family: Six sisters
The Cairo Statement
1: Commit to countering all types of terrorism and extremism in all their manifestations
2: Denounce violence and the rhetoric of hatred
3: Adhere to the full compliance with the Riyadh accord of 2014 and the subsequent meeting and executive procedures approved in 2014 by the GCC
4: Comply with all recommendations of the Summit between the US and Muslim countries held in May 2017 in Saudi Arabia.
5: Refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of countries and of supporting rogue entities.
6: Carry out the responsibility of all the countries with the international community to counter all manifestations of extremism and terrorism that threaten international peace and security
