Bitcoin’s recent bounce has yet to dispel doubts about its vulnerability.
The cryptocurrency has jumped 10 per cent over two days and was trading at $36,993 as of 9am in London (12pm UAE time) on Thursday. While the momentum may cheer bulls, a JPMorgan Chase team said backwardation in the futures market – where the spot price is above futures prices – is a reason for caution.
“We believe that the return to backwardation in recent weeks has been a negative signal pointing to a bear market,” JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. They added that Bitcoin’s relatively depressed share of total crypto market value is another concerning trend.
Traders are waiting for the next catalyst to break Bitcoin from a $30,000 to $40,000 range that’s been in place since a collapse from a record of almost $65,000 in April. Public criticism of the digital currency’s energy needs by Tesla founder Elon Musk and a Chinese regulatory crackdown are among obstacles. Bulls got a bit of a lift on Wednesday after El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender.
The virtual currency “needs to push into $39,460 and the top of the recent range to really attract, but we will need to see a break here for the bulls to feel we’re out of this period of vulnerability”, Chris Weston, head of research with Pepperstone Financial, wrote in a note on Thursday.
The June 9 analysis from JPMorgan looked at the 21-day rolling average of the second Bitcoin futures spread over spot prices. The backwardation this showed is an “unusual development and a reflection of how weak Bitcoin demand is at the moment from institutional investors” who use contracts listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to trade the cryptocurrency.
The Bitcoin futures curve was in backwardation for most of 2018, a year when the cryptocurrency fell 74 per cent after a spectacular boom, JPMorgan said.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market value is 42 per cent currently, down from roughly 70 per cent at the start of the year, according to data from tracker CoinGecko. For some analysts, that’s partly a sign of retail-driven investor froth lifting other coins.
Bitcoin’s share may need to top 50 per cent to make it easier to argue the current bear market is over, the JPMorgan strategists said.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The five pillars of Islam
UAE SQUAD
Ahmed Raza (Captain), Rohan Mustafa, Jonathan Figy, CP Rizwan, Junaid Siddique, Mohammad Usman, Basil Hameed, Zawar Farid, Vriitya Aravind (WK), Waheed Ahmed, Karthik Meiyappan, Zahoor Khan, Darius D'Silva, Chirag Suri
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
3.5/5
All about the Sevens
Cape Town Sevens on Saturday and Sunday: Pools A – South Africa, Kenya, France, Russia; B – New Zealand, Australia, Spain, United States; C – England, Scotland, Argentina, Uganda; D – Fiji, Samoa, Canada, Wales
HSBC World Sevens Series standing after first leg in Dubai 1 South Africa; 2 New Zealand; 3 England; 4 Fiji; 5 Australia; 6 Samoa; 7 Kenya; 8 Scotland; 9 France; 10 Spain; 11 Argentina; 12 Canada; 13 Wales; 14 Uganda; 15 United States; 16 Russia
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ICC Intercontinental Cup
UAE squad Rohan Mustafa (captain), Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Saqlain Haider, Ahmed Raza, Mohammed Naveed, Imran Haider, Qadeer Ahmed, Mohammed Boota, Amir Hayat, Ashfaq Ahmed
Fixtures Nov 29-Dec 2
UAE v Afghanistan, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Hong Kong v Papua New Guinea, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Ireland v Scotland, Dubai International Stadium
Namibia v Netherlands, ICC Academy, Dubai
European arms
Known EU weapons transfers to Ukraine since the war began: Germany 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles. Luxembourg 100 NLAW anti-tank weapons, jeeps and 15 military tents as well as air transport capacity. Belgium 2,000 machine guns, 3,800 tons of fuel. Netherlands 200 Stinger missiles. Poland 100 mortars, 8 drones, Javelin anti-tank weapons, Grot assault rifles, munitions. Slovakia 12,000 pieces of artillery ammunition, 10 million litres of fuel, 2.4 million litres of aviation fuel and 2 Bozena de-mining systems. Estonia Javelin anti-tank weapons. Latvia Stinger surface to air missiles. Czech Republic machine guns, assault rifles, other light weapons and ammunition worth $8.57 million.
SANCTIONED
- Kirill Shamalov, Russia's youngest billionaire and previously married to Putin's daughter Katarina
- Petr Fradkov, head of recently sanctioned Promsvyazbank and son of former head of Russian Foreign Intelligence, the FSB.
- Denis Bortnikov, Deputy President of Russia's largest bank VTB. He is the son of Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB which was responsible for the poisoning of political activist Alexey Navalny in August 2020 with banned chemical agent novichok.
- Yury Slyusar, director of United Aircraft Corporation, a major aircraft manufacturer for the Russian military.
- Elena Aleksandrovna Georgieva, chair of the board of Novikombank, a state-owned defence conglomerate.
WEST ASIA RUGBY 2017/18 SEASON ROLL OF HONOUR
Western Clubs Champions League
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Dubai Rugby Sevens
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Runners up: Jebel Ali Dragons
West Asia Premiership
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Runners up: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership Cup
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UAE Premiership
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Runners up: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
The Little Things
Directed by: John Lee Hancock
Starring: Denzel Washington, Rami Malek, Jared Leto
Four stars
CHINESE GRAND PRIX STARTING GRID
1st row
Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
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2nd row
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Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren)
8th row
Brendon Hartley (Toro Rosso)
Sergey Sirotkin (Williams)
9th row
Pierre Gasly (Toro Rosso)
Lance Stroll (Williams)
10th row
Charles Leclerc (Sauber)
arcus Ericsson (Sauber)
