Syria's ravaged economy is being kept on life support by an estimated inflow of at least US$500 million (Dh1.83 billion) every month from foreign governments, estimates the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
Support in the form of cash, weapons and other supplies is helping to offset the more than $30bn hit to GDP since the start of the uprising against Bashar Al Assad, the president, in March 2011, said Garbis Iradian, the deputy director of the Africa and Middle East department of the IIF, which represents the world's largest financial institutions.
"The size of the economy is now less than $30bn and that's a huge drop from where it was before the start of the unrest in 2011," he said. "But the wild card is that there's a significant inflow of money coming in to arm the rebels from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, while the Syrian regime is getting money from Iran and probably Russia. Some import bills are not being paid either."
The civil war has claimed the lives of about 70,000 people and led to an exodus of more than one million people from their homeland.
The combination of violence and international sanctions have crippled an economy that used to rely on industry, transportation, oil, tourism and agriculture. The economy will contract by at least 15 per cent this year to $27bn, estimated the IIF in a report released last month.
It follows a 15 per cent dip last year and 6 per cent fall in 2011. The size of the economy stood at $57.5bn before the unrest.
Back then Syria was considered a relative success story among regional economies trying to diversify away from oil revenues.
The country had an expanding manufacturing footprint, annual growth rates of more than 4 per cent and low public debt.
But the seeds of unrest were sown in part by ordinary citizens' unhappiness with their exclusion from the growing prosperity, as well as rising unemployment and corruption in public life.
Life has now become harder still for many Syrians as the conflict has led to power cuts, destruction of homes, business premises and roads, the shedding of an estimated 1.5 million jobs and rampant inflation.
The IIF estimates government debt will balloon to 56.7 per cent of GDP this year and official reserves will dwindle to $2.1bn from $10.8bn in 2011 on the assumption of no major extra support from Russia and Iran.
But inflows of cash from abroad may be helping to stave off a budget crisis. The black market exchange rate is about 100 Syrian pounds per US dollar compared to the official rate of 82 pounds per dollar.
The difference suggests inflows of dollars are coming in from abroad to both the rebels and the regime, said Mr Iradian. "It means they can probably carry on the war for another six months to a year."
However, the more the war drags on, the longer - and more costly - the rebuilding process.
Syria will need about $45bn to fund reconstruction efforts, estimated the Syrian Center for Policy Research in a report published in January for the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia.
It also estimated that unemployment could rise to 60 per cent if the conflict continues to 2015.
"If the internal conflict continues for longer, Syria will have to face the already massive burden or the three Rs [relief, reconstruction and reconciliation]" said Zafiris Tzannatos, a UAE-based economist.
"And among them relief and reconstruction may be the easer to address. However, reconciliation will be very difficult amidst fragile internal coalitions and fluid geopolitics."
tarnold@thenational.ae
MATCH INFO
League Cup, last 16
Manchester City v Southampton, Tuesday, 11.45pm (UAE)
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
UAE SQUAD
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zawar Farid, Ghulam Shabber, Ahmed Raza, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Qadeer Ahmed, Chirag Suri , Zahoor Khan
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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'The Batman'
Stars:Robert Pattinson
Director:Matt Reeves
Rating: 5/5
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
De De Pyaar De
Produced: Luv Films, YRF Films
Directed: Akiv Ali
Cast: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Rakul Preet Singh, Jimmy Sheirgill, Jaaved Jaffrey
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
The specs
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder
Transmission: CVT auto
Power: 181bhp
Torque: 244Nm
Price: Dh122,900
Asia%20Cup%202022
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DUNE%3A%20PART%20TWO
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Denis%20Villeneuve%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Timothee%20Chamalet%2C%20Zendaya%2C%20Austin%20Butler%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The specs: McLaren 600LT
Price, base: Dh914,000
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 600hp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 620Nm @ 5,500rpm
Fuel economy 12.2.L / 100km
World Cup final
Who: France v Croatia
When: Sunday, July 15, 7pm (UAE)
TV: Game will be shown live on BeIN Sports for viewers in the Mena region
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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