Inflation in India hit a seven-month high last month as the country struggles with slowing economic growth and rising prices.
The wholesale price index, India’s main gauge of inflation, rose 6.46 per cent last month, compared to an increase of 6.1 per cent in August, official data released yesterday showed.
“Unrelenting food and fuel prices took September inflation to a seven-month high,” said Sujan Hajra, the chief economist at Anand Rathi, a financial services firm in Mumbai.
Food prices last month rose 18.4 per cent from the same period last year, with the cost of onions surging 322.94 per cent, while vegetables in general were up 89.37 per cent, the data showed. Fuel and power prices increased 10 per cent, with the weak rupee making imports more costly.
India’s economy faces challenges. Economic growth slumped to a decade low of 5 per cent in the latest financial year. At the same time the government has been grappling with large deficits and a flight of funds from emerging markets on signs of economic improvement in the United States. That sent the rupee tumbling to historic lows over the summer.
The rupee dipped on the latest inflation data, with the US dollar trading up 0.76 per cent at 61.54 rupees yesterday afternoon.
The IMF last week issued a forecast that India’s economy would grow by only 3.8 per cent this year compared to a previous prediction in July of 5.6 per cent.
The latest inflation figures support the case for another interest rate rise, some analysts say.
Raghuram Rajan, who took over as governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last month, unexpectedly lifted the central bank’s repo rate to 7.5 per cent from 7.25 per cent in an effort to curb inflation. (The repo rate is the interest rate at which the central bank buys government securities from commercial banks; a rising repo rate is meant to constrict the money supply and therefore fight inflation.)
Analysts are concerned that risks of increasing inflation have not gone away.
“Our discomfort on [the] future inflation trajectory emanates from the fact that policy changes and consumption boost caused ahead of the upcoming elections are expected to aggravate inflation further,”said Dhananjay Sinha, the head of institutional research at Emkay Global Financial Services, a brokerage based in Mumbai.
“Inflationary pressures we foresee include several import restrictions in combination with an expansionary government spending, a pickup in retail credit, possible widening of trade deficit, higher election related spending stimulating consumption and a rise in rural consumption on the back of a good monsoon.”
Emkay is forecasting a quarter-point rate increase at the central bank’s next monetary policy meeting, on October 29.
Mr Hajra at Anand Rathi, however, said that “despite inflation worries, low real growth suggests no rate action in the October monetary policy meeting”.
The central bank governor, Mr Rajan, a former IMF chief economist, said on Saturday in Washington that he “was not a superman” and admitted there had been “a little bit euphoria in India” surrounding his appointment as the RBI’s leader.
Mr Rajan indicated that there would be banking sector reforms that would make it easier for foreign banks to enter India.
“That is going to be a big, big opening because one could even contemplate taking over Indian banks and so on,” he said.
business@thenational.ae
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
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Key facilities
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- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
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The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
FIXTURES
Monday, January 28
Iran v Japan, Hazza bin Zayed Stadium (6pm)
Tuesday, January 29
UAEv Qatar, Mohamed Bin Zayed Stadium (6pm)
Friday, February 1
Final, Zayed Sports City Stadium (6pm)
In Full Flight: A Story of Africa and Atonement
John Heminway, Knopff
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
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Aaron Finch, Matt Renshaw, Brendan Doggett, Michael Neser, Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Mitchell Marsh, Tim Paine (captain), Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Jon Holland, Ashton Agar, Mitchell Starc, Peter Siddle
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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