Moody's Investors Service downgraded India's credit ratings to a notch above 'junk' status on June 1 – the agency’s first significant downgrade of the country in the past 22 years.
The move laid bare India’s economic weak spots and is prompting calls for bold policies to revive an economy that was already struggling before the coronavirus pandemic hit, analysts and business leaders say.
“This would put additional pressure on the central government to kickstart the economy which has been severely impacted by the Covid-19 lockdown,” says Niranjan Hiranandani, the managing director of Hiranandani Group, a Mumbai-based property developer, and the president of industry lobby groups Assocham and Naredco.
"If anything, the surprise was that the move took so long
Moody's, on Monday, downgraded India's sovereign rating to 'Baa3' from 'Baa2', which is the lowest investment grade, and maintained its negative outlook.
The ratings agency said this reflected its view that “the country's policymaking institutions will be challenged in enacting and implementing policies which effectively mitigate the risks of a sustained period of relatively low growth, significant further deterioration in the general government fiscal position and stress in the financial sector”.
While Moody’s downgrade comes as the country is grappling with a rising number of coronavirus cases, the ratings agency was quick to clarify that the downgrade “was not driven by the impact of the pandemic”.
“Rather, the pandemic amplifies vulnerabilities in India's credit profile that were present and building prior to the shock”, Moody's said.
Analysts say the negative outlook is a major worry. Credit ratings affect a country's ability to borrow funds and attract foreign investment – a key focus of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government since it first came to power in 2014.
“Moody’s decision to downgrade India’s sovereign rating, along with a negative outlook, implies a possibility of further downgrade which, if it happens, will take the rating below investment grade,” says Sankar Chakraborti, chief executive of Acuité Ratings & Research.
India’s growth numbers are also not encouraging. Asia’s third largest-economy’s gross domestic product growth slowed to 4.7 per cent during the fourth quarter year of 2019, touching a seven-year low, official figures show. The economy had been on a downward spiral for several quarters.
The virus outbreak and the subsequent nationwide lockdown, which began on March 25, have further increased its economic woes. India's latest GDP data for the first three months of the year reveal that the economy grew by just 3.1 per cent. Analysts are forecasting a sharp contraction of up to 45 per cent for the April to June quarter.
Meanwhile, as many businesses ground to a halt during the lockdown, unemployment in India has soared above 27 per cent, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
The consensus is that India needs growth levels of around 8 per cent annually to create enough jobs for the country's young population and lift people out of poverty.
Policy reforms discussed by the government include bold changes to the country's archaic land and labour laws to make it easier for companies to do business, analysts say.
“We believe the subdued policy response for the short-term alleviation of the lockdown-related stress will lead to subdued economic growth and lower tax collection,” says Abhimanyu Sofat, the head of research at IIFL Securities, headquartered in Mumbai. “This is likely to aggravate the weakness in the credit profile of India. The policy of a balancing act seems to have not given the desired results.”
Big economic reforms were last seen in 1991 when the economy opened up by reducing licences and permits
Mr Modi addressed the matter of land, labour and law reforms during his speech last month, when he announced a $266 billion (Dh976.9bn) economic package.
Some experts believe the coronavirus pandemic could be the push the government needs to enact such bold reforms.
“As a young nation now seeks bolder, stronger, more effective change, Covid-19 has put India in the middle of the perfect storm for deep reform,” says Gautam Chikermane, vice president at the Observer Research Foundation.
“Big economic reforms were last seen in 1991 when the economy opened up by reducing licences and permits.”
But in a democratic country, issues such as land and labour are a “political hot potato”, Mr Chikermane says.
Some states, including Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh, have relaxed labour laws in an effort to revive economic activity. But without conducive policies nationwide, analysts say the outlook remains bleak for India's ratings.
Shilan Shah, senior India economist at Capital Economics, says the Moody's downgrade came as little surprise. “If anything, the surprise was that the move took so long,” he says.
Mr Shah writes in a research note that “the downgrade simply brings Moody’s into line with other ratings agencies, which helps explain why financial markets took the announcement in their stride”.
Bond markets are not likely to be dramatically swayed going forward, he adds.
“Looking ahead, even as the fiscal cost of the coronavirus crisis mounts and the threat of further ratings downgrades looms, we think that bond yields will remain close to their current low level, given the benign inflation outlook and the likelihood of further policy easing from the Reserve Bank of India.”
Also helping the situation for now is the fact the Indian government is easing its strict lockdown and allowing the economy to open up. From Monday, offices, shopping malls and restaurants will be permitted to reopen, although states across the country are not necessarily relaxing restrictions fully. Mumbai, the worst affected city in terms of confirmed Covid-19 infections, will only allow offices to reopen with 10 per cent of their workforces from Monday, while shopping malls will remain shut in India's financial capital.
“The impact on the economy is visible as no, or minimum, activity was seen in the past two months,” says Sumit Kochar, the senior wealth and transaction adviser at Findoc Group, an Indian financial services company.
Financial stress on banks is only projected to worsen, given the impact of the pandemic and lockdown, he adds.
“Credit growth will be slow in the next few quarters and asset quality of banks and profitability will weaken,” says Mr Kochar. “The economy and investment climate are interrelated. With recovery in the economy expected to take three to four quarters at least, the same goes for the investment climate.”
Goldman Sachs is forecasting India's GDP growth to contract 5 per cent in the current financial year, which runs until the end of March.
Julius Baer's Mark Matthews, the Asia head of research, and Magdalene Teo, the Asia head of fixed income research, wrote in a research note that Moody's negative outlook is a concern. But they add that the rating agency “is likely to give India some time before the final downgrade”.
“Were it to downgrade India further, it would take the country’s rating into high yield, with negative implications for the financing of external debt,” according to Julius Baer.
“But even this is not a very critical problem, as the country’s reliance on external debt is minimal. Moody’s last downgrade of India was in 1998 and we do not think it will be in a hurry to make yet another one.”
Acuité Ratings & Research’s Mr Chakraborti says that there are factors in India's favour, include its record foreign exchange reserves, which stand at $493bn.
“We believe that the global rating agencies should take cognizance of India’s resilience through past economic crises since the 1990s, its adequate foreign currency reserves and its institutional and regulatory framework that has strengthened over the past two decades,” he says.
He is optimistic India can recover from its current position – although it will take time.
“The current economic scenario has set the stage for robust economic reforms which will help to weather the current crisis and [act as] a reset to the earlier growth trajectory in another two to three years,” says Mr Chakraborti.
Jawan
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Pathaan
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BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
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RACE CARD
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 – Group 1 (PA) $65,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) $65,000 (Turf) 1,800m
7.40pm: Meydan Classic – Listed (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,600m
8.15pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy – Group 3 (TB) $195,000 (T) 2,810m
8.50pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (T) 2,000m
9.25pm: Meydan Challenge – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,400m
ASHES SCHEDULE
First Test
November 23-27 (The Gabba, Brisbane)
Second Test
December 2-6 (Adelaide Oval, Adelaide)
Third Test
December 14-18 (Waca Ground, Perth)
Fourth Test
December 26-30 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne)
Fifth Test
January 4-8, 2018 (Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney)
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Expert input
If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?
“There are a few shoes that have ‘grail’ status for me. But the one I have always wanted is the Nike x Patta x Parra Air Max 1 - Cherrywood. To get a pair in my size brand new is would cost me between Dh8,000 and Dh 10,000.” Jack Brett
“If I had all the money, I would approach Nike and ask them to do my own Air Force 1, that’s one of my dreams.” Yaseen Benchouche
“There’s nothing out there yet that I’d pay an insane amount for, but I’d love to create my own shoe with Tinker Hatfield and Jordan.” Joshua Cox
“I think I’d buy a defunct footwear brand; I’d like the challenge of reinterpreting a brand’s history and changing options.” Kris Balerite
“I’d stir up a creative collaboration with designers Martin Margiela of the mixed patchwork sneakers, and Yohji Yamamoto.” Hussain Moloobhoy
“If I had all the money in the world, I’d live somewhere where I’d never have to wear shoes again.” Raj Malhotra
Baftas 2020 winners
BEST FILM
- 1917 - Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Sam Mendes, Jayne-Ann Tenggren
- THE IRISHMAN - Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal, Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
- JOKER - Bradley Cooper, Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho, Kwak Sin-ae
DIRECTOR
- 1917 - Sam Mendes
- THE IRISHMAN - Martin Scorsese
- JOKER - Todd Phillips
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
- 1917 - Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Jayne-Ann Tenggren, Krysty Wilson-Cairns
- BAIT - Mark Jenkin, Kate Byers, Linn Waite
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- ROCKETMAN - Dexter Fletcher, Adam Bohling, David Furnish, David Reid, Matthew Vaughn, Lee Hall
- SORRY WE MISSED YOU - Ken Loach, Rebecca O’Brien, Paul Laverty
- THE TWO POPES - Fernando Meirelles, Jonathan Eirich, Dan Lin, Tracey Seaward, Anthony McCarten
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
- THE FAREWELL - Lulu Wang, Daniele Melia
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- PAIN AND GLORY - Pedro Almodóvar, Agustín Almodóvar
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho
- PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE - Céline Sciamma, Bénédicte Couvreur
LEADING ACTRESS
- JESSIE BUCKLEY - Wild Rose
- SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Marriage Story
- SAOIRSE RONAN - Little Women
- CHARLIZE THERON - Bombshell
- RENÉE ZELLWEGER - Judy
LEADING ACTOR
- LEONARDO DICAPRIO - Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood
- ADAM DRIVER - Marriage Story
- TARON EGERTON - Rocketman
- JOAQUIN PHOENIX - Joker
- JONATHAN PRYCE - The Two Popes
SUPPORTING ACTOR
- TOM HANKS - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
- ANTHONY HOPKINS - The Two Popes
- AL PACINO - The Irishman
- JOE PESCI - The Irishman
- BRAD PITT - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- LAURA DERN - Marriage Story
- SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Jojo Rabbit
- FLORENCE PUGH - Little Women
- MARGOT ROBBIE - Bombshell
- MARGOT ROBBIE - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- THE IRISHMAN - Steven Zaillian
- JOJO RABBIT - Taika Waititi
- JOKER - Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
- LITTLE WOMEN - Greta Gerwig
- THE TWO POPES - Anthony McCarten
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- BOOKSMART - Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Katie Silberman
- KNIVES OUT - Rian Johnson
- MARRIAGE STORY - Noah Baumbach
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Han Jin Won, Bong Joon ho
DOCUMENTARY
- AMERICAN FACTORY - Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert
- APOLLO 11 - Todd Douglas Miller
- DIEGO MARADONA - Asif Kapadia
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- THE GREAT HACK - Karim Amer, Jehane Noujaime
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
- BAIT - Mark Jenkin (Writer/Director), Kate Byers, Linn Waite (Producers)
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab (Director/Producer), Edward Watts (Director)
- MAIDEN - Alex Holmes (Director)
- ONLY YOU - Harry Wootliff (Writer/Director)
- RETABLO - Álvaro Delgado-Aparicio (Writer/Director)
ANIMATED FILM
- FROZEN 2 - Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho
- KLAUS - Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh
- A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON - Will Becher, Richard Phelan, Paul Kewley
- TOY STORY 4 - Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen
CASTING
- JOKER - Shayna Markowitz
- MARRIAGE STORY - Douglas Aibel, Francine Maisler
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Victoria Thomas
- THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD - Sarah Crowe
- THE TWO POPES - Nina Gold
EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
- AWKWAFINA
- JACK LOWDEN
- KAITLYN DEVER
- KELVIN HARRISON JR.
- MICHEAL WARD
CINEMATOGRAPHY
- 1917 - Roger Deakins
- THE IRISHMAN - Rodrigo Prieto
- JOKER - Lawrence Sher
- LE MANS ’66 - Phedon Papamichael
- THE LIGHTHOUSE - Jarin Blaschke
EDITING
- THE IRISHMAN - Thelma Schoonmaker
- JOJO RABBIT - Tom Eagles
- JOKER - Jeff Groth
- LE MANS ’66 - Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Fred Raskin
COSTUME DESIGN
- THE IRISHMAN - Christopher Peterson, Sandy Powell
- JOJO RABBIT - Mayes C. Rubeo
- JUDY - Jany Temime
- LITTLE WOMEN - Jacqueline Durran
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Arianne Phillips
PRODUCTION DESIGN
- 1917 - Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales
- THE IRISHMAN - Bob Shaw, Regina Graves
- JOJO RABBIT - Ra Vincent, Nora Sopková
- JOKER - Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh
SOUND
- 1917 - Scott Millan, Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson
- JOKER - Tod Maitland, Alan Robert Murray, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic
- LE MANS ’66 - David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Steven A. Morrow, Donald Sylvester
- ROCKETMAN - Matthew Collinge, John Hayes, Mike Prestwood Smith, Danny Sheehan
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Stuart Wilson, Matthew Wood
ORIGINAL SCORE
- 1917 - Thomas Newman
- JOJO RABBIT - Michael Giacchino
- JOKER - Hildur Guđnadóttir
- LITTLE WOMEN - Alexandre Desplat
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - John Williams
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
- 1917 - Greg Butler, Guillaume Rocheron, Dominic Tuohy
- AVENGERS: ENDGAME - Dan Deleeuw, Dan Sudick
- THE IRISHMAN - Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, Pablo Helman
- THE LION KING - Andrew R. Jones, Robert Legato, Elliot Newman, Adam Valdez
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy
MAKE UP & HAIR
- 1917 - Naomi Donne
- BOMBSHELL - Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan
- JOKER - Kay Georgiou, Nicki Ledermann
- JUDY - Jeremy Woodhead
- ROCKETMAN - Lizzie Yianni Georgiou
BRITISH SHORT FILM
- AZAAR - Myriam Raja, Nathanael Baring
- GOLDFISH - Hector Dockrill, Harri Kamalanathan, Benedict Turnbull, Laura Dockrill
- KAMALI - Sasha Rainbow, Rosalind Croad
- LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL) - Carol Dysinger, Elena Andreicheva
- THE TRAP - Lena Headey, Anthony Fitzgerald
BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
- GRANDAD WAS A ROMANTIC - Maryam Mohajer
- IN HER BOOTS - Kathrin Steinbacher
- THE MAGIC BOAT - Naaman Azh
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
FIGHT CARD
Sara El Bakkali v Anisha Kadka (Lightweight, female)
Mohammed Adil Al Debi v Moaz Abdelgawad (Bantamweight)
Amir Boureslan v Mahmoud Zanouny (Welterweight)
Abrorbek Madaminbekov v Mohammed Al Katheeri (Featherweight)
Ibrahem Bilal v Emad Arafa (Super featherweight)
Ahmed Abdolaziz v Imad Essassi (Middleweight)
Milena Martinou v Ilham Bourakkadi (Bantamweight, female)
Noureddine El Agouti v Mohamed Mardi (Welterweight)
Nabil Ouach v Ymad Atrous (Middleweight)
Nouredin Samir v Zainalabid Dadachev (Lightweight)
Marlon Ribeiro v Mehdi Oubahammou (Welterweight)
Brad Stanton v Mohamed El Boukhari (Super welterweight
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
'Avengers: Infinity War'
Dir: The Russo Brothers
Starring: Chris Evans, Chris Pratt, Tom Holland, Robert Downey Junior, Scarlett Johansson, Elizabeth Olsen
Four stars
