MUMBAI // Indian business leaders are largely upbeat on the American president-elect Donald Trump and the future of US and Indian economic relations.
Despite some concerns that his immigration policy and plans to reduce outsourcing could hit the Indian IT industry, many believe that his victory could in fact signal a move towards stronger economic and trade relations.
“While the scope and nature of impact will only be seen when Donald Trump assumes office, it is my belief that the US-India relations should experience a new high under the Trump administration,” says Arun Ramamurthy, the director of Credit Sudhaar, a finance and credit company in India.
“Trump during his presidential campaign had clearly pronounced suspicion towards China and its skewed trade policies. In case the Trump administration decides to take a tough stand on China, Indo-US ties can experience a new surge. This will have a positive impact on the trade and economic ties as well.”
Tensions between Trump and China have been rising, even before the controversial president-elect comes to power next month, which could signal that relations are set to deteriorate between the world’s largest economies. Trump was critical of China’s trade and currency policies during his campaign and following a recent call to Taiwan’s president, which China objected to, a few days ago he posted a series of tweets attacking China’s monetary policy and military operations.
Meanwhile, Trump has described India as “a great country” and promised that their relations will be “the best ever”.
“It’s important to understand that Donald Trump is an enigma so it’s very hard to predict anything,” says Raghu Kumar, the director of Upstox, an online brokerage, and a US citizen who is currently based in Mumbai. “But no matter how you slice and dice it, I think India will benefit.”
He believes that if tensions with China spirals into an issue that affects trade between China and the US, that could be to the advantage of Indian manufacturing and trade, as the US turns to India instead.
There could be “huge jump in the [Indian] markets” as a result of Trump’s victory, something that is not happening now because of India’s demonetisation move, Mr Kumar adds.
What is also promising is the fact that Trump has significant business interests in India. In Mumbai, he has lent his name to a branded Trump luxury apartments project, being built by Lodha Group, a local developer. He has a similar project in Pune, being developed by Panchshil Realty, as well as projects in Kolkata and Gurgaon. An analysis by The Washington Post revealed that Trump’s company has created more business ventures in India with developers than any other country.
But the president-elect has signalled that he does want to bring jobs that have been outsourced overseas back to America and that he wants to reduce the number of H1-B visas, which allows employment of specialised foreign workers in the US. This would impact the number of Indians that could work in the IT sector in the country, which would hurt Indian IT firms, already under pressure and facing increased competition from other countries. Indian IT companies including Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, and Wipro, use H1-B visas to send IT professionals to the US to service clients there.
“The world over, there’s a lot of protectionism coming in and push back on immigration,” Pravin Rao, the chief operating officer at Infosys told Reuters. “Unfortunately, people are confusing immigration with a high-skilled temporary workforce, because we are really a temporary workforce. We have to accelerate hiring of locals if they are available, and start recruiting freshers from universities there.” This would inevitably push up costs for Indian IT companies.
Mr Rao also said that Infosys was looking at accelerating acquisitions in the US to boost their presence in the country and try to defend themselves from protectionist measures.
The message that Trump wants to stop the flow of jobs out of India could also be bad news for the Indian manufacturing sector. US aviation firms Boeing and Lockheed Martin have proposed to build jets in India, but it is not clear if Trump’s victory could have an impact on these plans.
“The administration plans to prioritise the jobs and wages of the American people by establishing new immigration controls which could ensure that American workers are offered, open jobs, first,” says Abhishek Shindadkar, a research analyst at Equirus Securities in Mumbai. “Election results could raise protectionist voices leading to measures such as higher visa costs.”
But others are more optimistic about the situation.
“The change of guard at the US government will not have any significant impact on the Indian IT industry,” says BVR Mohan Reddy, the founder and executive chairman of Cyient, an engineering services and technology company headquartered in Hyderabad and with a presence in the US.
“Over the years, India’s IT sector has consistently added value to the US economy in multiple ways. Indian IT companies have not only helped make US companies more efficient and competitive, but have also helped them develop new technologies and new products thereby significantly benefiting those companies, their customers, American job growth and contributing to the US economy at large.”
He thinks that on closer examination of the issue, Trump will be unlikely to do anything that would jeopardise the Indian IT sector’s contribution to the US economy.
“As the rhetoric of the presidential contest fades into the past, the Trump administration will need to make way for mutually beneficial trade with India. Trump will need to take a more balanced approach to high-skilled visas, and cannot overlook the Indian IT sector’s instrumental role in the US economy.”
Mr Shindadkar is of a similar opinion.
“Economics could replace rhetoric’s given outsourcing is not a one-way-affair and that outsourcing while generating employment in India has saved millions for corporate America,” he says.
Ajay Kolla, the founder and chief executive of Wisdomjobs.com, says that there are “three things that go in favour of the Indian IT industry is its cost effectiveness, superior domain knowledge and availability of quality talent”, which should protect the sector, he believes.
And there are strong indications that Trump has been trying to win favour among Indians in the US.
“Before the elections were closing, [Trump] was trying to generate good vibes among NRIs,” says Mr Kumar.
Trump’s daughter, Ivanka Trump, celebrated the Diwali festival with Indian Americans at a temple in Virginia, for example.
“Indians have a lot of respect in the US,” says Mr Kumar. “It would be extremely damaging for Trump to come out tomorrow to say, ‘India is stealing all our jobs’. I think he wants to encourage more business between the US and India.”
Despite the controversies surrounding Trump, it is clear that he seems to have won over substantial support from businesses in India.
“I feel Trump will be very positive for India and business,” says Srinivasan Gopalan, the chief executive of Ozone Group, a property developer in Bangalore.
He cites the fact that Trump has appointed two women of Indian origin, Nikki Haley and Seema Verma, to his cabinet, as evidence of the importance of the Indian community.
“The Indian ethnic community in the US is educated and affluent and holds considerable clout.”
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
SERIE A FIXTURES
Saturday (All UAE kick-off times)
Lecce v SPAL (6pm)
Bologna v Genoa (9pm)
Atlanta v Roma (11.45pm)
Sunday
Udinese v Hellas Verona (3.30pm)
Juventus v Brescia (6pm)
Sampdoria v Fiorentina (6pm)
Sassuolo v Parma (6pm)
Cagliari v Napoli (9pm)
Lazio v Inter Milan (11.45pm)
Monday
AC Milan v Torino (11.45pm)
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
If you go:
Getting there:
Flying to Guyana requires first reaching New York with either Emirates or Etihad, then connecting with JetBlue or Caribbean Air at JFK airport. Prices start from around Dh7,000.
Getting around:
Wildlife Worldwide offers a range of Guyana itineraries, such as its small group tour, the 15-day ‘Ultimate Guyana Nature Experience’ which features Georgetown, the Iwokrama Rainforest (one of the world’s four remaining pristine tropical rainforests left in the world), the Amerindian village of Surama and the Rupununi Savannah, known for its giant anteaters and river otters; wildlifeworldwide.com
What it means to be a conservationist
Who is Enric Sala?
Enric Sala is an expert on marine conservation and is currently the National Geographic Society's Explorer-in-Residence. His love of the sea started with his childhood in Spain, inspired by the example of the legendary diver Jacques Cousteau. He has been a university professor of Oceanography in the US, as well as working at the Spanish National Council for Scientific Research and is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Biodiversity and the Bio-Economy. He has dedicated his life to protecting life in the oceans. Enric describes himself as a flexitarian who only eats meat occasionally.
What is biodiversity?
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, all life on earth – including in its forests and oceans – forms a “rich tapestry of interconnecting and interdependent forces”. Biodiversity on earth today is the product of four billion years of evolution and consists of many millions of distinct biological species. The term ‘biodiversity’ is relatively new, popularised since the 1980s and coinciding with an understanding of the growing threats to the natural world including habitat loss, pollution and climate change. The loss of biodiversity itself is dangerous because it contributes to clean, consistent water flows, food security, protection from floods and storms and a stable climate. The natural world can be an ally in combating global climate change but to do so it must be protected. Nations are working to achieve this, including setting targets to be reached by 2020 for the protection of the natural state of 17 per cent of the land and 10 per cent of the oceans. However, these are well short of what is needed, according to experts, with half the land needed to be in a natural state to help avert disaster.
Background: Chemical Weapons
Racecard
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The biog
Favourite hobby: taking his rescue dog, Sally, for long walks.
Favourite book: anything by Stephen King, although he said the films rarely match the quality of the books
Favourite film: The Shawshank Redemption stands out as his favourite movie, a classic King novella
Favourite music: “I have a wide and varied music taste, so it would be unfair to pick a single song from blues to rock as a favourite"
Bangladesh tour of Pakistan
January 24 – First T20, Lahore
January 25 – Second T20, Lahore
January 27 – Third T20, Lahore
February 7-11 – First Test, Rawalpindi
April 3 – One-off ODI, Karachi
April 5-9 – Second Test, Karachi
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
RESULTS
2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
Winner: AF Senad, Nathan Crosse (jockey), Kareem Ramadan (trainer)
2.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: Ashjaan, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel.
3pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Amirah, Conner Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
3.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Jap Al Yaasoob, Szczepan Mazur, Irfan Ellahi.
4pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Cup Prestige Handicap (PA) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Jawaal, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri.
4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Manhunter, Ryan Curatolo, Mujeeb Rahman.
Credit Score explained
What is a credit score?
In the UAE your credit score is a number generated by the Al Etihad Credit Bureau (AECB), which represents your credit worthiness – in other words, your risk of defaulting on any debt repayments. In this country, the number is between 300 and 900. A low score indicates a higher risk of default, while a high score indicates you are a lower risk.
Why is it important?
Financial institutions will use it to decide whether or not you are a credit risk. Those with better scores may also receive preferential interest rates or terms on products such as loans, credit cards and mortgages.
How is it calculated?
The AECB collects information on your payment behaviour from banks as well as utilitiy and telecoms providers.
How can I improve my score?
By paying your bills on time and not missing any repayments, particularly your loan, credit card and mortgage payments. It is also wise to limit the number of credit card and loan applications you make and to reduce your outstanding balances.
How do I know if my score is low or high?
By checking it. Visit one of AECB’s Customer Happiness Centres with an original and valid Emirates ID, passport copy and valid email address. Liv. customers can also access the score directly from the banking app.
How much does it cost?
A credit report costs Dh100 while a report with the score included costs Dh150. Those only wanting the credit score pay Dh60. VAT is payable on top.
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Company%20Profile
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SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Company%20profile
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