The IMF dimmed its growth outlook for the Middle East and North Africa this year, one of several regions where it lowered its forecast in the face of tail risks to the global economy.
Output in the Mena region would reach 3.4 per cent, down 0.2 per cent from its previous forecast in October, the fund said in an update yesterday to its World Economic Outlook report. This follows growth of 5.2 per cent last year.
"In the Middle East and North Africa region, many countries will need to maintain macroeconomic stability under difficult internal and external conditions," said the IMF.
Globally, it said growth was expected to strengthen this year, led by surging emerging markets and more robust activity in the United States.
But it said the upturn was projected to be more gradual than it had outlined in its prior report. Global output would climb from 3.2 per cent last year to 3.5 per cent, 0.1 per cent down from its earlier outlook.
"Policy actions have lowered acute crisis risks in the euro area and the United States," it said. "But in the euro area, the return to recovery after a protracted contraction is delayed.
"While Japan has slid into recession, stimulus is expected to boost growth in the near term."
The IMF did not give a reason for its downgrade to the Mena outlook. Masood Ahmed, the director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department, said in November that regional instability was taking longer to resolve than previously forecast.
The economies of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen are recovering after leadership changes, while Syria remains locked in civil war. Oil output in the GCC is also expected to moderate this year, removing a leading driver of GDP last year. Growth in Mena would pick up by 3.8 per cent next year.
But it was the euro zone that was hit by the IMF's most severe downgrade. It said the single currency area would remain mired in recession for a second consecutive year, dipping by 0.2 per cent instead of expanding by the same amount. The economy would return to positive territory next year, with expansion of 1 per cent.
"The near-term outlook for the euro area has been revised downwards, even though progress in national adjustment and a strengthened EU-wide policy response to the euro area crisis reduced tail risks and improved financial conditions for sovereigns in the periphery."
After the US avoided plunging off the so-called fiscal cliff, its economy was forecast to grow 2 per cent this year, down from 2.3 per cent last year and 0.1 per cent lower from its previous projection. Growth would climb to 3 per cent next year, it said.
A supportive financial market and a turnaround in the housing market had helped to bolster household balance sheets, said the IMF.
Despite Japan plunging into recession, the IMF did not downgrade the near-term outlook for the country. Its economy was expected to expand by 1.2 per cent this year, broadly unchanged from the October forecast.
Growth in emerging markets and developing economies would hit 5.5 per cent this year. Weakness in advanced economies and softer commodity prices would weigh on external demand, stopping growth from rebounding to the high rates of 2010 to 2011.
tarnold@thenational.ae
MO
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How Filipinos in the UAE invest
A recent survey of 10,000 Filipino expatriates in the UAE found that 82 per cent have plans to invest, primarily in property. This is significantly higher than the 2014 poll showing only two out of 10 Filipinos planned to invest.
Fifty-five percent said they plan to invest in property, according to the poll conducted by the New Perspective Media Group, organiser of the Philippine Property and Investment Exhibition. Acquiring a franchised business or starting up a small business was preferred by 25 per cent and 15 per cent said they will invest in mutual funds. The rest said they are keen to invest in insurance (3 per cent) and gold (2 per cent).
Of the 5,500 respondents who preferred property as their primary investment, 54 per cent said they plan to make the purchase within the next year. Manila was the top location, preferred by 53 per cent.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed
Based: Muscat
Launch year: 2018
Number of employees: 40
Sector: Online food delivery
Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler
Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm
Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20101hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20135Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Six-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh79%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
England World Cup squad
Eoin Morgan (capt), Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wkt), Tom Curran, Liam Dawson, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
What is 'Soft Power'?
Soft power was first mentioned in 1990 by former US Defence Secretary Joseph Nye.
He believed that there were alternative ways of cultivating support from other countries, instead of achieving goals using military strength.
Soft power is, at its root, the ability to convince other states to do what you want without force.
This is traditionally achieved by proving that you share morals and values.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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JOKE'S%20ON%20YOU
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Trolls World Tour
Directed by: Walt Dohrn, David Smith
Starring: Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake
Rating: 4 stars
