As crude fell below $60 per barrel yesterday, dropping to 40 per cent of the record $147 peak scaled exactly a year ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said recovery in global oil demand would be delayed until next year.
In rolling out its forecast for the coming year, the energy adviser to the industrialised world said next year's oil demand picture could look "dramatically different" from this year's, with consumption set to rebound by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) or 1.7 per cent to 85.2 million bpd.
But the IEA said a sharp decline in oil prices in the past two weeks suggested that observers who had "confidently announced the bottoming out of the recession" were having second thoughts.
"The mood has suddenly changed, as many leading economic and energy indicators continue to show very weak readings, suggesting the 'green shoots' have been largely driven by a rebuild in industrial inventories rather than by a strong end-use demand."
Yesterday, crude extended a roughly 20 per cent slide from the eight-month high of $73.38 reached just last week, dipping as low as $59.01.
"The number one factor is still demand. It all goes back to the economy," Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at the Newedge brokerage in Tokyo, told Bloomberg.
"Destocking is probably largely over by now, yet demand data in key countries, predominantly the US, have if anything worsened in the past few weeks," the IEA said.
"We thus remain sceptical regarding the much-trumpeted, strong second-half 2009 demand rebound."
The agency pointed to "growing evidence that, for a second year in a row, the driving season in the US is petering out".
It said US motorists were feeling doubly pinched by the deep recession and increased prices at the petrol pump, causing them to drive less.
"The sensitivity of US drivers to retail price fluctuations depends largely on their income prospects," it said.
US government data released on Wednesday showed that petrol inventories in the world's biggest energy consumer increased by 1.9 million barrels last week, while stockpiles of distillate fuel such as diesel swelled by 3.7 million barrels.
The biggest surprise in the IEA's forecast for next year was its prediction of a "modest recovery" of about 100,000 bpd in oil demand by developed countries, as their economies "gradually emerge from their deepest slump in over half a century".
Less surprisingly, it said China and the Middle East would lead the larger expected rebound in global demand.
The IEA's oil demand forecast for the developed world contrasts sharply with Opec's prediction. The oil exporters' organisation said on Tuesday that oil consumption in the developed world had peaked in 2005 and would continue to decline for at least the next two decades.
The IEA said its forecast for next year was predicated on a gradual improvement in global financial and trade imbalances fuelling economic activity, notably in emerging countries. Should economic growth turn out to be "more subdued" than expected, the rebound in fuel demand would fail to materialise, it warned.
"There's still a strong note of caution. Demand data coming in for 2009 is still weak on a trend basis," said David Fyfe, the head of the IEA's oil industry and markets division.
On the supply side, Opec members' slipping compliance with the deep output cuts they agreed to last year could soften the immediate outlook for crude prices.
In June, the group delivered 2.9 million bpd of cuts, compared with 4.2 million bpd of reductions pledged since last September, according to the IEA.
It calculated that Opec compliance had fallen to about 68 per cent from nearly 80 per cent earlier this year, with production climbing by 75,000 bpd last month to 28.7 million bpd.
"Opec crude oil supply in June rose for the second successive month despite a wave of supply disruptions in Nigeria," the agency noted. Anti-government militants in Nigeria have mounted a series of attacks on pipelines and other oil installations, forcing Africa's biggest oil exporter to curtail 300,000 barrels of crude production in recent weeks.
In total, nearly 1 million bpd of output capacity in the country's volatile Niger Delta region is currently offline, the IEA reported.
Further damping immediate prospects for stronger crude prices, the IEA raised its forecast for oil supply from outside Opec, predicting growth of 190,000 bpd this year to 50.8 million bpd, instead of a 100,000 bpd drop.
Next year, the agency sees a further 410,000 bpd rise to 51.2 million bpd, with "strong growth in Azerbaijan, Brazil, global biofuels, the US Gulf of Mexico and Canadian oil sands".
tcarlisle@thenational.ae
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Results
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'HIJRAH%3A%20IN%20THE%20FOOTSTEPS%20OF%20THE%20PROPHET'
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Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
How to help or find other cats to adopt
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3ECompany%20name%3A%20CarbonSifr%3Cbr%3EStarted%3A%202022%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Onur%20Elgun%2C%20Mustafa%20Bosca%20and%20Muhammed%20Yildirim%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Climate%20tech%3Cbr%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%241%20million%20raised%20in%20seed%20funding%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Frida%20
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Voy!%20Voy!%20Voy!
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The specs
Price, base: Dh228,000 / Dh232,000 (est)
Engine: 5.7-litre Hemi V8
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 395hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 552Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.5L / 100km
Five%20calorie-packed%20Ramadan%20drinks
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What is an ETF?
An exchange traded fund is a type of investment fund that can be traded quickly and easily, just like stocks and shares. They come with no upfront costs aside from your brokerage's dealing charges and annual fees, which are far lower than on traditional mutual investment funds. Charges are as low as 0.03 per cent on one of the very cheapest (and most popular), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, with the maximum around 0.75 per cent.
There is no fund manager deciding which stocks and other assets to invest in, instead they passively track their chosen index, country, region or commodity, regardless of whether it goes up or down.
The first ETF was launched as recently as 1993, but the sector boasted $5.78 billion in assets under management at the end of September as inflows hit record highs, according to the latest figures from ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five largest providers BlackRock’s iShares, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisers, Deutsche Bank X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
While the best-known track major indices such as MSCI World, the S&P 500 and FTSE 100, you can also invest in specific countries or regions, large, medium or small companies, government bonds, gold, crude oil, cocoa, water, carbon, cattle, corn futures, currency shifts or even a stock market crash.
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs: 2018 Dodge Durango SRT
Price, base / as tested: Dh259,000
Engine: 6.4-litre V8
Power: 475hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 640Nm @ 4,300rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.7L / 100km
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars