Back in July the sense was almost tangible that the world economy was slowly recovering from the impact of the March 11 Japanese earthquake on global supply chains, and from the effect of rising commodity prices, with oil prices starting to come off their second-quarter peak.
Most encouragingly it appeared that the US economy was finally beginning to turn a corner and pick up some momentum, with monthly jobs growth averaging 131,000 in the first six months of the year.
Markets were hopeful that a euro-zone default had finally been averted, with a second bailout for Greece having just been arranged.
Since returning from vacations, however, it has quickly become apparent that all was not as it seemed.
Global activity indicators over the summer drifted lower, not just in the developed world but in China and in other emerging market economies too, and US employment growth ground to a halt.
The financial markets skirted with a budget default in Washington, and having only just survived this the US was still unable to avoid a downgrading of its "AAA" sovereign credit rating. Most critically of course, the carefully crafted second bailout arranged for Greece in July began to unravel, almost before Europe's politicians arrived at their summer holiday homes.
Instead of looking at an improving economic landscape, the picture has been transformed to one in which we will now be lucky if the world avoids another recession.
The global economy is clearly skating on very thin ice, with the IMF, the Federal Reserve and the G20 group of developed and emerging economies all saying as much over the course of the last week. So where did it all go wrong, and where do we go from here?
The starting point is that by the middle of this year the world economy was still only partially on the road to recovery, three years on from the financial crisis of 2008.
Expectations and hopes were improving but the hard evidence of it was still very tentative, which is not really surprising given the still considerable levels of indebtedness prevailing, particularly in the developed world.
The US economy was advancing slowly, but what it could least afford was the eruption of a political stand-off in Washington over the extension of the debt ceiling.
Even though a deal was eventually secured, both consumer and business confidence were damaged by the political grandstanding.
With a presidential election next year, this gridlock on Capitol Hill is likely to continue, and unless progress is made soon the US will confront another year of economic headwinds stemming from an inappropriate fiscal policy.
China was not without its own policy issues either, despite the appearance of an enviable growth rate of above 9 per cent.
Inflation needed managing lower in a way that would not threaten a bursting of its property bubble, especially given the presence of worrisome debt problems of its own, although these are largely kept hidden from public view.
Both of these situations should be manageable, however, without a fallback into recession, but the political dimension complicates the matter in a way that makes the ultimate outcome much less certain and secure. Of course complicating the situation even further still is the problem posed by the euro zone's sovereign debt problems - the most critical issue the world faces. For the ramifications of the euro-zone debt crisis will stretch way beyond Europe's shores and have the potential to drag the rest of the world, already vulnerable, down with it.
Once again the economic risks stemming from the issue of Greece's insolvency have been amplified considerably by political mishandling of the situation.
Of course a Greek default now appears likely, but the management of that eventual outcome is what will make the difference between whether the world economy continues to grow, albeit slowly, or whether it faces another slump.
The lesson of the past few months, however, would appear to be that the world would be better served if the political dimension was more supportive of, and less disruptive to, the measures that need to be taken to nurture and sustain economic recovery and growth. That way, we may stand a chance of avoiding the fallback into a recession that should really have been avoidable.
Tim Fox is the head of research and chief economist at Emirates NBD
Company%20Profile
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Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
Key features of new policy
Pupils to learn coding and other vocational skills from Grade 6
Exams to test critical thinking and application of knowledge
A new National Assessment Centre, PARAKH (Performance, Assessment, Review and Analysis for Holistic Development) will form the standard for schools
Schools to implement online system to encouraging transparency and accountability
Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
RACE CARD
6.30pm Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,200
7.05pm Handicap Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
7.40pm Maiden Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm Handicap Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
8.50pm Handicap Dh175,000 (D) 1,400m
9.25pm Handicap Dh175,000 (D) 2,000m
The National selections:
6.30pm Underwriter
7.05pm Rayig
7.40pm Torno Subito
8.15pm Talento Puma
8.50pm Etisalat
9.25pm Gundogdu
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
The specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: eight-speed PDK
Power: 630bhp
Torque: 820Nm
Price: Dh683,200
On sale: now
Jordan cabinet changes
In
- Raed Mozafar Abu Al Saoud, Minister of Water and Irrigation
- Dr Bassam Samir Al Talhouni, Minister of Justice
- Majd Mohamed Shoueikeh, State Minister of Development of Foundation Performance
- Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education and Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research
- Falah Abdalla Al Ammoush, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Basma Moussa Ishakat, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Ghazi Monawar Al Zein, Minister of Health
- Ibrahim Sobhi Alshahahede, Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Environment
- Dr Mohamed Suleiman Aburamman, Minister of Culture and Minister of Youth
Out
- Dr Adel Issa Al Tawissi, Minister of High Education and Scientific Research
- Hala Noaman “Basiso Lattouf”, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Mahmud Yassin Al Sheyab, Minister of Health
- Yahya Moussa Kasbi, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Nayef Hamidi Al Fayez, Minister of Environment
- Majd Mohamed Shoueika, Minister of Public Sector Development
- Khalid Moussa Al Huneifat, Minister of Agriculture
- Dr Awad Abu Jarad Al Mushakiba, Minister of Justice
- Mounir Moussa Ouwais, Minister of Water and Agriculture
- Dr Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education
- Mokarram Mustafa Al Kaysi, Minister of Youth
- Basma Mohamed Al Nousour, Minister of Culture
MATCH INFO
Europa League final
Who: Marseille v Atletico Madrid
Where: Parc OL, Lyon, France
When: Wednesday, 10.45pm kick off (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
