It has become an oil industry maxim that the world needs to find the equivalent of three Saudi Arabias in a decade if it is to make up for declines at the world's biggest fields.
But behind this statistic lies growing uncertainty among forecasters about the world's future needs, because of doubts over economic growth and intensifying efforts to conserve energy and switch to alternatives.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), the energy watchdog for 28 industrialised nations, said yesterday that estimates of the world's oil needs in five years varied by 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd).
"Demand uncertainty now is perhaps as great as it has ever been," the IEA said in an annual forecast released yesterday.
If the world economy recovers as expected, the world's thirst for oil will grow by a cumulative 6.5 per cent in five years. But if the recovery is more subdued, the increase in demand will be only 4.1 per cent, according to the agency's latest forecast.
The difference is worth tens of billions of dollars in investments in new drilling by OPEC members, Russia, Brazil and the other countries that are expected to meet the bulk of the world's future oil needs. The forecasts are further clouded by politics; the IEA's critics have long accused the agency of overestimating future consumption to encourage excess investment in oilfields as a means of suppressing prices.
What is clear is that even more of the oil will be going to emerging economies than previously expected, even as demand in industrialised countries steadily falls.
The IEA's fresh forecast increased China's expected consumption in 2012 by 7.3 per cent, even as it cut North America's expected demand for that year by 1.2 per cent. Oil demand in industrialised countries has peaked, the IEA said, as cars become more efficient, population growth slows and more households shift from oil to natural gas for heating.
Consumers in emerging economies, however, are buying more cars, electronic goods and other conveniences.
As the graph above shows, oil companies still provide the world's most important source of energy, but their product is facing new challenges and new competition from biofuels, natural gas and renewable energy in the battle for market share.
A key question for oil companies is what effect new restrictions on offshore drilling will have on their ability to expand production, the IEA said.
"At present there is no certainty over specific regulatory and permitting changes that may be implemented in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon," the agency said, referring to the explosion at a BP well in the Gulf of Mexico in April and the consequent oil leak.
Regulatory delays could potentially reduce expected 2015 output by up to 850,000 bpd, the IEA said, which is equal to almost 1 per cent of current daily world oil consumption.
A federal judge in New Orleans on Tuesday struck down a six-month moratorium the Obama administration had placed on new deepwater drilling projects. The administration immediately said it would appeal against the decision.
The long-term challenge for oil, which is mostly used in the transport sector, will come in the potential for breakthroughs for biofuels and electric cars.
Too many uncertainties about future costs prevent a forecast for the effects of costs on oil demand, the IEA said.
Global output of biofuels will increase more than 32 per cent to 2.4 million bpd, allowing the industry to displace up to 5.7 per cent of global petrol use. Further growth is highly dependent on oil prices and government incentives to develop new types of biofuels made from plant and wood waste.
Natural gas, meanwhile, is likely to be the ascendant fuel in the next two decades. Natural gas cut into coal's share of the electricity market in the US last year, the IEA said, and was set for strong gains in China and India in the next five years.
Even as total oil consumption falls by 2 per cent in three years in industrialised countries, those countries' use of gas will remain stable, the IEA said.
@Email:cstanton@thenational.ae
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Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
Water waste
In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.
Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.
A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
Review: Tomb Raider
Dir: Roar Uthaug
Starring: Alicia Vikander, Dominic West, Daniel Wu, Walter Goggins
two stars
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0-litre%20six-cylinder%20turbo%20(BMW%20B58)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20340hp%20at%206%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20500Nm%20from%201%2C600-4%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20ZF%208-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100kph%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.2sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20267kph%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh462%2C189%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWarranty%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030-month%2F48%2C000k%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Tips from the expert
Dobromir Radichkov, chief data officer at dubizzle and Bayut, offers a few tips for UAE residents looking to earn some cash from pre-loved items.
- Sellers should focus on providing high-quality used goods at attractive prices to buyers.
- It’s important to use clear and appealing photos, with catchy titles and detailed descriptions to capture the attention of prospective buyers.
- Try to advertise a realistic price to attract buyers looking for good deals, especially in the current environment where consumers are significantly more price-sensitive.
- Be creative and look around your home for valuable items that you no longer need but might be useful to others.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EElmawkaa%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hub71%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ebrahem%20Anwar%2C%20Mahmoud%20Habib%20and%20Mohamed%20Thabet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PropTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24400%2C000%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E500%20Startups%2C%20Flat6Labs%20and%20angel%20investors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017
Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free
Fixtures - Open Men 2pm: India v New Zealand, Malaysia v UAE, Singapore v South Africa, Sri Lanka v England; 8pm: Australia v Singapore, India v Sri Lanka, England v Malaysia, New Zealand v South Africa
Fixtures - Open Women Noon: New Zealand v England, UAE v Australia; 6pm: England v South Africa, New Zealand v Australia