Reports by agencies and consultants have power when they can bring about change. There are many ways to reach a goal and scenarios should not be mistaken for reality. These maxims should be kept in mind as we evaluate the International Energy Agency’s pathway to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.
Firstly, we should note the report’s significance and applaud the IEA’s diligence in preparing it. The world’s top energy agency, set up to represent the interests of the industrialised countries after the 1973 oil crisis, has often been portrayed by critics as a mouthpiece for fossil fuel interests.
'Culmination of a decade's work'
Although it is guilty of errors such as heavily underestimating the adoption of solar power, such a characterisation is unfair. It has long broadened its scope to cover energy security in general, with a growing focus on climate. According to executive director Fatih Birol, this report is the culmination of at least a decade’s work and more will follow to help the agency's members and associates in choosing their own paths.
The agency’s climate-related work has been caught between two forms of projections: what will happen, given certain conditions, and what should happen to realise a particular goal. This report, aimed at achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, is of the second kind.
The report will be influential since it could change the behaviours of governments and investors. The agency is following, not leading, the more ambitious initiatives of environmentalists, green political parties and low-carbon entrepreneurs. If we include the US under the Biden administration, 70 per cent of the world economy is already covered by net-zero targets between 2050 and 2060.
However, the milestones to 2030 – those that current governments can influence – will be the best guide to whether we are anywhere near the right path. Dorel Iosif, chief executive of consultancy Lavaux, said that “we see growing global political consensus for net zero but policies need to be translated into action and, most importantly, in a manner in which developing countries receive the right amount of investment so that they are not left behind”.
The scale of what the agency finds as necessary to attain net-zero emissions has been widely reported but remains breathtaking.
It includes a commitment to not approve new coal-fired stations without carbon-capture systems from this year, measures to ensure 60 per cent of all car sales are electric by 2030 and the outlawing of new petrol or diesel car sales globally by 2035. It also includes policies to guarantee that all power generation worldwide is zero-carbon by 2040, with 70 per cent generated from solar and wind by 2050.
These milestones rely on technology that exists today, developed with sweat and massive investment over the past half-century. The road map contains others such as low-emission aircraft and industrial processes that, at best, are at the development stage.
'No investment in new oil and gas fields required'
This is not the only way to meet climate goals. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN body, laid out four representative scenarios in 2018, covering a wide range of philosophies. There is relatively little reliance by the IEA on negative emissions – the direct removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which some of the IPCC projects use heavily.
Environmentalists and headline writers hailed the agency’s findings, which showed that no investment in new oil and gas fields was required. However, this is reading the report backwards. The demand side will lead, not supply.
An artificial constraint on fossil fuel production will mean sharp price increases and volatility
China, an associate of the agency, approved new coal-fired projects that can generate 46 gigawatts of electricity last year, which despite the report’s admonitions, will not drop to zero this year. Exploration and development of new fields can still be preferable if existing resources are expensive to produce or carbon intensive.
Furthermore, the agency’s traditional advocacy of a diverse and competitive energy market sits oddly with a projected concentration of future oil output in Opec and Russia.
At stake is not only lost profit for oil companies that might commit prematurely to becoming renewable energy majors. An artificial constraint on fossil fuel production will mean sharp price increases and volatility, a failure to meet the agency’s goal of universal energy access by 2030 and a political setback for the whole green agenda.
Individual companies might decide to leave the oil business and some countries might ban further exploration, as Denmark has already done.
'No international body to enforce decline in oil and gas production'
That is a plausible path for the EU, which is investing heavily in low-carbon energy systems for consumers and does not include Norway and the UK, the two biggest European producers.
However, there is no international body to enforce the rapid decline in oil and gas production the agency's scenario envisages. Opec comes closest but it has no powers of enforcement and wants its members to make the most of their oil resources.
It would help to co-ordinate the transition of economies as oil output and prices fall. More controversial would be if the oil exporters’ organisation produces its own view on how far continued petroleum consumption is compatible with the Paris goals they have all signed up to and what skills and assets are transferable to low-carbon activities.
Investors, lenders, multinational businesses and intergovernmental organisations will probably ask fossil fuel producing states that very question.
Robin Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
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PULITZER PRIZE 2020 WINNERS
JOURNALISM
Public Service
Anchorage Daily News in collaboration with ProPublica
Breaking News Reporting
Staff of The Courier-Journal, Louisville, Ky.
Investigative Reporting
Brian M. Rosenthal of The New York Times
Explanatory Reporting
Staff of The Washington Post
Local Reporting
Staff of The Baltimore Sun
National Reporting
T. Christian Miller, Megan Rose and Robert Faturechi of ProPublica
and
Dominic Gates, Steve Miletich, Mike Baker and Lewis Kamb of The Seattle Times
International Reporting
Staff of The New York Times
Feature Writing
Ben Taub of The New Yorker
Commentary
Nikole Hannah-Jones of The New York Times
Criticism
Christopher Knight of the Los Angeles Times
Editorial Writing
Jeffery Gerritt of the Palestine (Tx.) Herald-Press
Editorial Cartooning
Barry Blitt, contributor, The New Yorker
Breaking News Photography
Photography Staff of Reuters
Feature Photography
Channi Anand, Mukhtar Khan and Dar Yasin of the Associated Press
Audio Reporting
Staff of This American Life with Molly O’Toole of the Los Angeles Times and Emily Green, freelancer, Vice News for “The Out Crowd”
LETTERS AND DRAMA
Fiction
"The Nickel Boys" by Colson Whitehead (Doubleday)
Drama
"A Strange Loop" by Michael R. Jackson
History
"Sweet Taste of Liberty: A True Story of Slavery and Restitution in America" by W. Caleb McDaniel (Oxford University Press)
Biography
"Sontag: Her Life and Work" by Benjamin Moser (Ecco/HarperCollins)
Poetry
"The Tradition" by Jericho Brown (Copper Canyon Press)
General Nonfiction
"The Undying: Pain, Vulnerability, Mortality, Medicine, Art, Time, Dreams, Data, Exhaustion, Cancer, and Care" by Anne Boyer (Farrar, Straus and Giroux)
and
"The End of the Myth: From the Frontier to the Border Wall in the Mind of America" by Greg Grandin (Metropolitan Books)
Music
"The Central Park Five" by Anthony Davis, premiered by Long Beach Opera on June 15, 2019
Special Citation
Ida B. Wells
Fitness problems in men's tennis
Andy Murray - hip
Novak Djokovic - elbow
Roger Federer - back
Stan Wawrinka - knee
Kei Nishikori - wrist
Marin Cilic - adductor
RESULTS
ATP China Open
G Dimitrov (BUL x3) bt R Bautista Agut (ESP x5)
7-6, 4-6, 6-2
R Nadal (ESP x1) bt J Isner (USA x6)
6-4, 7-6
WTA China Open
S Halep (ROU x2) bt D Kasatkina (RUS)
6-2, 6-1
J Ostapenko (LAT x9) bt S Cirstea (ROU)
6-4, 6-4
ATP Japan Open
D Schwartzman (ARG x8) bt S Johnson (USA)
6-0, 7-5
D Goffin (BEL x4) bt R Gasquet (FRA)
7-5, 6-2
M Cilic (CRO x1) bt R Harrison (USA)
6-2, 6-0
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
The Travel Diaries of Albert Einstein The Far East, Palestine, and Spain, 1922 – 1923
Editor Ze’ev Rosenkranz
Princeton
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
MATCH INFO
Bayern Munich 2 Borussia Monchengladbach 1
Bayern: Zirkzee (26'), Goretzka (86')
Gladbach: Pavard (37' og)
Man of the Match: Breel Embolo (Borussia Monchengladbach)
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
What went into the film
25 visual effects (VFX) studios
2,150 VFX shots in a film with 2,500 shots
1,000 VFX artists
3,000 technicians
10 Concept artists, 25 3D designers
New sound technology, named 4D SRL
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
MATCH INFO
Wales 1 (Bale 45 3')
Croatia 1 (Vlasic 09')
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FLIP5
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Main%20%E2%80%93%206.7%22%20FHD%2B%20Dynamic%20Amoled%202X%2C%202640%20x%201080%2C%2022%3A9%2C%20425ppi%2C%20HDR10%2B%2C%20up%20to%20120Hz%3B%20cover%20%E2%80%93%203%2F4%22%20Super%20Amoled%2C%20720%20x%20748%2C%20306ppi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Qualcomm%20Snapdragon%208%20Gen%202%2C%204nm%2C%20octa-core%3B%20Adreno%20740%20GPU%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2013%2C%20One%20UI%205.1.1%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%2012MP%20ultra-wide%20(f%2F2.2)%20%2B%2012MP%20wide%20(f%2F1.8)%2C%20OIS%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%4030%2F60fps%2C%20full-HD%4060%2F240fps%2C%20HD%40960fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010MP%20(f%2F2.2)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203700mAh%2C%2025W%20fast%20charging%2C%2015W%20wireless%2C%204.5W%20reverse%20wireless%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205G%3B%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Samsung%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nano-SIM%20%2B%20eSIM%3B%20no%20microSD%20slot%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cream%2C%20graphite%2C%20lavender%2C%20mint%3B%20Samsung.com%20exclusives%20%E2%80%93%20blue%2C%20grey%2C%20green%2C%20yellow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Flip%204%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh3%2C899%20%2F%20Dh4%2C349%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
T20 World Cup Qualifier
October 18 – November 2
Opening fixtures
Friday, October 18
ICC Academy: 10am, Scotland v Singapore, 2.10pm, Netherlands v Kenya
Zayed Cricket Stadium: 2.10pm, Hong Kong v Ireland, 7.30pm, Oman v UAE
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Rameez Shahzad, Darius D’Silva, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zawar Farid, Ghulam Shabber, Junaid Siddique, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Waheed Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Zahoor Khan
Players out: Mohammed Naveed, Shaiman Anwar, Qadeer Ahmed
Players in: Junaid Siddique, Darius D’Silva, Waheed Ahmed
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 1 (Gundogan 56')
Shakhtar Donetsk 1 (Solomon 69')
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