Inflation is flaring up across the GCC and economists expect it will continue to do so for the rest of the year, propelled by higher housing costs.
Food prices have played a key part in the recent price spike, but looking ahead, it is housing that the economists believe will feed longer-term structural inflation.
"With the region's residential real estate market recovery expected to continue apace, higher housing costs will likely be a key factor pushing headline CPI [consumer price index numbers] up through the remainder of 2013," wrote Jean-Paul Pigat, economist at Emirates NBD, in a research report this week.
Emirates NBD forecasts UAE inflation to reach 2.5 per cent this year, up from 0.7 per cent last year and the highest since the double-digit levels of 2008.
Across the GCC, it expects inflation to reach 3.8 per cent this year, compared to 2.7 per cent last year.
The uptick follows a period of subdued inflation in the UAE and Qatar, ever since the global financial crisis tightened the availability of credit and weakened the property markets. Inflation has remained higher in Saudi Arabia and other states.
More recently, GCC economies have gathered fresh momentum, underpinned by strong government spending and housing demand from rising populations.
On average, housing costs account for about 27 per cent of the consumer price index, the largest weighting in the basket. Food prices, which have also been fanning inflation, make up 20 per cent of the basket.
In the UAE, the annual inflation rate reached 1.3 per cent last month, its highest level since July 2011, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics this month. Housing and utility costs rose 0.4 per cent from a year earlier. Food and soft drinks accelerated by 3.5 per cent during the month.
The rise reflects a recovery in the property market, especially in Dubai, where rents are estimated by the property broker CBRE to have jumped by more than 30 per cent over the past year.
In Saudi Arabia, housing price inflation rose to a 16-month high of 4.2 per cent a year last month, showed data from the kingdom's Central Department of Statistics and Information. Housing and related items had climbed 3.3 per cent in the year to date.
Ramadan helped to lift food inflation to a four-year high of 6.9 per cent during the month from a year earlier. Overall inflation rose to 3.7 per cent.
"While this increase in rental inflation partly reflects a seasonal trend during summer months, we maintain our view that higher consumer incomes are putting upward pressure on rents at a time when the bulk of anticipated new supply has still to balance the market," wrote Fahad Alturki, head of research at Jadwa Investment, the Saudi Arabian investment bank, in a report released last week.
Housing prices are also on the rise in Qatar, although for different reasons.
Prices have been driven up by an influx of foreigners to work on the raft of big infrastructure projects Qatar is pushing ahead with, including the 2022 Fifa World Cup.
Rental inflation climbed to 6.7 per cent in the year to June, according to Qatar Statistics Authority. It follows a period of negativity in the weighting almost every month from early 2009 to the middle of last year.
In a research report released this month, Qatar National Bank said it expected the nation's inflation to reach 3.6 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent next year due to further increases in rents as major projects ramped up over the next year or so.
Bahrain is facing similar pricing pressures.
Rents in the kingdom have grown sharply by 9.3 per cent so far this year. A return of political stability since unrest in 2011 and last year has helped to give upward momentum to the property market.
In Kuwait, rents have risen by 3.2 per cent on average this year.
Of the GCC countries, only Oman has seen more moderate rental price pressure. Prices have gained 1.2 per cent in the year to date.
QNB says it expects the region's inflation to find a floor at around 3 per cent. "Strengthening non-oil growth and expanding populations will give prices, particularly rents, some upward impetus. However, this is likely to be counterbalanced by falling global food prices, which will make food imports cheaper and hold back inflation," analysts wrote in the research report.
tarnold@thenational.ae
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sun jukebox
Rufus Thomas, Bear Cat (The Answer to Hound Dog) (1953)
This rip-off of Leiber/Stoller’s early rock stomper brought a lawsuit against Phillips and necessitated Presley’s premature sale to RCA.
Elvis Presley, Mystery Train (1955)
The B-side of Presley’s final single for Sun bops with a drummer-less groove.
Johnny Cash and the Tennessee Two, Folsom Prison Blues (1955)
Originally recorded for Sun, Cash’s signature tune was performed for inmates of the titular prison 13 years later.
Carl Perkins, Blue Suede Shoes (1956)
Within a month of Sun’s February release Elvis had his version out on RCA.
Roy Orbison, Ooby Dooby (1956)
An essential piece of irreverent juvenilia from Orbison.
Jerry Lee Lewis, Great Balls of Fire (1957)
Lee’s trademark anthem is one of the era’s best-remembered – and best-selling – songs.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
The bio
Studied up to grade 12 in Vatanappally, a village in India’s southern Thrissur district
Was a middle distance state athletics champion in school
Enjoys driving to Fujairah and Ras Al Khaimah with family
His dream is to continue working as a social worker and help people
Has seven diaries in which he has jotted down notes about his work and money he earned
Keeps the diaries in his car to remember his journey in the Emirates
THREE
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
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Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Naga
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
MATCH INFO
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Namibia beat Oman by 52 runs
UAE beat Namibia by eight wickets
UAE v Oman - abandoned
Oman v Namibia - abandoned
Results:
Men's 100m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 15 sec; 2. Rheed McCracken (AUS) 15.40; 3. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 15.75. Men's 400m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 50.56; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 50.94; 3. Henry Manni (FIN) 52.24.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
